Clinton to Concede on Friday

Hillary Clinton will concede the election on Friday, apparently following a large number of influential calls today suggesting that it was important she not stay in the race now that Obama has effectively clinched the party's nomination.

Clinton Crushes Obama in Kentucky

As happened in the West Virginia primary Hillary Clinton soundly won today's Kentucky democratic primary with 65% of the vote to Obama's 30%. Clinton must be thinking "oh what a difference an Iowa makes" as she contemplates a strategy that now appears to have failed to gain enough support early in the primaries to carry her on to victory. Although it is not clear that Obama's 11 consecutive victories before Pennsylvania were the key factor in his probably primary victory, I think a combination of strategic errors cost Clinton an election she would have won with a different approach. The key mistakes:

1) Waiting *far* too long to gripe about Florida and Michigan's missing primary votes. Clinton's point is very valid that these states have been disenfranchised. In fact to any clear thinker this is an outrage. Yet I think the Clinton strategy was very foolish, waiting until she was the underdog to complain about this. Now the question is one of fairness to the states who had their votes voided vs fairness to the process of electing which was also seriously compromised here. A revote is the answer, and the Democratic party should fund a new vote unless it can be shown that the outcome would be very unlikely to have an effect on the outcome of the race.

2) Failing to name Obama as her choice for VP after Edwards dropped out of the race. This would have won her superdelegate support and might have turned the tide in some states - most importantly it would have stolen Obama's momentum at a critical time.

Clinton Wins Pennsylvania Primary

Update: Clinton wins 55% to 45% with 99% reporting

The networks are not calling it yet but the exit polling makes it clear Hillary Clinton will win the Pennsylvania Primary.

CNN's Exit poll data indicates the results will be as follows:

Clinton Male Vote %: .42 x .47 = 20%
Clinton Female Vote %: .58 x .55 = 32%

Clinton Total vote: 52%

Obama Male: .42 x .53 = 22%
Obama Female: .58 x .44 = 26%

Obama Total Vote 48%

Guilt by Association, Guilt by Exaggeration?

The media frenzy over comments by Hilary Clinton that she was under fire in Bosnia when in fact she was only under the threat of fire are really a stretch by pundits who have tired of the real issues or simply do not want to address them in any depth.

TV Journalists - and one has to use that term very lightly these days - are failing in dramatic fashion to inform people about issues and pit the candidates against each other for the right reason - addressing policy differences. Instead, we see nonsensical concerns over exaggerations and personal associations.

Comments by Barack Obama's bombastic former pastor, Rev. Wright, are also being discussed breathlessly as if Obama's sitting in a church pew during a handful of emotionally charged rants by his pastor somehow means he has become a disciple of some anti-US cult.

Clearly, many of Wright's views are not in synch with most of mainstream America although these views are in touch with perhaps 20-40% of the public here (and perhaps 70% of the European Union) who view the USA as a modern capitalist empire that facilitates much of the exploitation in the third world.

Although personally I find the controversial Wright views about the USA *profoundly* naive and rationally unsupportable they represent debatable positions. The ignorant TV punditry should be talking about a national dialog on why these issues have such traction in some intellectual communities rather than giving them the blanket dismissal and angrily attacking Obama for not leaving his church in protest.

It is crystal clear that Obama totally disagrees with many of the characterizations Wright has used over the years.

The guilt by association is nonsense and a sign of the foolishness of liberal pundits combining with the strategic plays by conservative pundits to keep this in the news.

Obama Wins Mississippi

Barack Obama has won the votes in the MI primary, although it's not clear if he'll win the majority of the delegates thanks to quirky rules that do not award MI delegates in proportion to the vote.

The Republican situation remains quiet as John McCain has locked up the nomination.

Despite some back and forth grumbling among the Democrats, the debates there have been very civil overall, a strong indication that nobody wants to rock the Democratic boat too hard.

Obama Campaign's Samantha Power resigns

Foreign Policy advisor to Obama, Samatha Power, resigned after calling Hillary Clinton a "monster" in an interview where Power appeared to think she was off the record because the tape recorder was off.

Power, who authored a recent work on the Rwandan genocide and the failures of the US response under Bill Clinton's presidency, is a brilliant analyst with a powerful (in fact arguably she'd have a very, very "left wing") vision of how the US should change our role in the world.

Is Obama taking "too high" a road in his campaign? Admirably both he and John McCain are trying hard to steer the ship of American politics in the direction of positive debate and recognizing that we are all diminished by the negative nonsense that has been a pervasive part of politics ever since...the first elections.

However negatives are what people respond to most, especially the folks who are undecided about who they'll vote for. Taking negatives off the table may have unintended consequences and we'll see how long this approach lasts. I predict we'll see a lot of negativity coming *indirectly* from supporters who have no official relationship to these campaigns.

Man the Swiftboats! Full negative speed ahead?

Pundits and Plagiarism: Shut UP!

As the USA enters an era of challenged prosperity, wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, global responsibilities that are greater than at any other time in history, and many challenges here at home....

The pundits are talking about whether Barack Obama copied a few words from his friend in a speech.

This is *complete* nonsense and although I don't blame the Clinton campaign for cleverly misdirecting everybody into this absurd issue, I *totally* blame Brian Williams, Tim Russert, Chris Mathews, and more and more for buying into this absurdity. This absurdity simply should not make the news, but like other mildly contentious stupid points it trumps real issues - really the *only* thing these clowns should be reporting.

What is wrong with TV news people? They rarely choose to report anything but items of entertainment value and the horserace details. Wouldn't it be refreshing to hear some intelligent discussion of policies? Is that too much to ask?

On, Wisconsin!

Primary eyes are on Wisconsin this week as that "all American" state votes for the Democratic nominee. While McCain has only the finishing touches to put on his nomination, the Democratic race is very likely to go to convention, and the outcome there is not at all clear.

Obama has run a virtually flawless campaign, rising from near political obscurity to the be new national favorite and arguably the most likely winner of the big prize - the Presidency of the USA.

Presidential heir apparent Hilary Clinton is now locked in the tightest of races with Obama - a race that ultimately could hinge on how she manages issues such as inclusion of Florida and Michigan delegates, states banned by the Democratic national committee for holding early primaries, and superdelegates, most of whom remain uncommitted.

My take on superdelegates is that they will *not* necessarily help Clinton even though she currently has more of them pledged to her, though last week it was reported that she has lost 3 superdelegates during a time where Obama has won 13.

I think the most likely outcome at the convention is that many superdelegates will agree to support the person with the most popular votes and this will give that person a strong lead. Of course there could even be debate about who won the most votes as the Florida and Michigan voting legitimacy is debated.

Missouri for Obama - unless you are AP

AP made a bad call on Missouri last night but otherwise the exit polling held up well. I was pissed in fact that they don't share this like they used to. When I saw the CA exit poll data from CNN, which very oddly leaves off the key total indicating the winner but include the female and male components and population percentages which should give you a good "exit poll winner" after a couple of math hoops and the assumption that males and females are voting in proportion to their state population.....hmm... but is this reasonable assumption?

I think folks make way too much of the challenges of exit polling. In general exit polling is good, but sometimes it is not. In 2000 the exit polling for Florida was fine - people *thought* they'd voted for Gore when in fact many ballots were spoiled due to double vote for Buchanon and Gore. This spoiled butterfly ballot factor clearly lost the race for Gore (crystal clear by the way if you missed the later analysis) even though it was not contested by him in the infamous Supreme Court decision which actually did not make a difference in the outcome.

So -Exit polls are good, but not always correct. Welcome to math.

Clinton, McCain, Romney, Obama vie for the big prize

It is not clear that Tuesday's mega election event will bring clear primary winners but certainly it'll bring a lot of excitement to the US Presidential campaign.

Most pundits are predicting a McCain win for the Republicans but many won't pick a winner in the Clinton Obama race, which polls indicate may be tightening over this last week. Obama took in a spectacular 30+ million dollars in January. Only McCain appears somewhat strapped for cash as we head into the time when candidates are spending millions every day to spread their word to a national audience. I'm guessing Romney will have a superbowl ad and perhaps others as well, though even massive TV time seems unlikely to have a huge impact this late in the game. That said, many voters make up their mind in the last days or even minutes of the election. In that case it would not hurt to have made a positive impact on Sunday.

Betting on the President

Intrade is an actual gambling venue where you can bet on the various candidates to win primaries and the general election. It these gamblers are right, we'll see a McCain v Clinton General Election in the fall. At Intrade, both Obama and Romney only have about a third of the betting action chance to win their respective primaries.

Intrade odds on the 2008 elections

Clinton v Obama on February 5th. Mainstream media analysis has gone from worthless to opportunistic.

President Picker still thinks Hilary Clinton will be the nominee of the Democrats, and that the victory will be clear next Tuesday after the national primaries. Obama's speeches are both inspired and we think he's credible, but several factors continue to favor Clinton:

Polling shows Clinton with substantial voting leads almost across the board. RealClearPolitics.com has the best polling coverage and Clinton looks fairly solid. It'll be interesting to see how the Kennedy endorsement of Obama today affects the tracking polls tomorrow, but I'm guessing this was a media event that'll have little national impact on Obama's poll numbers.

So why does the media keep gushing over relatively insignificant events and aspects of the race? Because they LOVE a horserace, and they've helped make one happen by overstating Obama's chances, overstating Bill Clinton's positive and negative influences, and overstating the tensions in what has been a remarkably civil and dignified campaign.

With several exceptions such as the always frank and honest Pat Buchanon, many Republican analysts appear to me to be nothing short of deceptive with their glowing pseudo-endorsements of Obama, hoping to either create a weaker opponent for their Republican preference or (more likely) begin the tear-down of Hilary Clinton as early as possible.

Predictions? As always we are happy to give them. Clinton will consolidate here position and effectively win the democratic primary next week. Romney and McCain will remain close and that race will go down to the wire, perhaps depending on last minute negative campaign tactics, and probably going to the Republican convenion for a winner.

Look for Clinton to win very graciously and bring Obama on as her VP nominee quickly, consolidating the votes of two key groups in the general election: Women and African Americans.

Iowa Democrats - Clinton, Obama, Edwards almost a dead heat?

Real Clear Politics has a great examination of recent Iowa polling, and averages the latest information to get these numbers:

Clinton 28.4
Obama 26.4
Edwards 25.8

Averaging has some challenges but probably paints a better picture than any individual polling effort. By this measure the race is pretty much a dead heat (though I HATE ther terms "statistical dead heat" because it misleads people into thinking there is no difference between different numbers. There is a difference. When two numbers are within the polls margin of error it still means the top person is "more likely" to win, but suggests far more uncertainty than if the numbers are outside of the margin of error.

For example Richardson with under 10% has virtually no chance of an Iowa top 3 placement, but any of the top 3 could win this race.

However, I continue to believe Clinton will win due to superior organization and strategy and the football game which will affect men more than women and thus Clinton's popularity among Iowa women will be enhanced, but the game is not likely to be fully reflected in polls.

Prediction: Clinton Wins Iowa and also New Hampshire.

Into the Iowa Home Stretch

The Iowa Caucuses are only about a week away, and it is by no means clear who will win Iowa, let alone how that will affect the longer term prospects of the winners and losers.

On the Republican side of the race McCain is showing signs of life in Iowa and New Hampshire, and in National polls. If he topples the "front runners" Romney and Giuliani it'll breath some life into a campaign that had been slowed considerably by challenges in organization and funding.

Still, President Picker predicts a Romney win in Iowa by a modest percentage and then a stronger win in New Hampshire, consolidating Romney as the Republican Front Runner and seeing more drop outs - probably Thompson first after predicted bad showings in the first two states.

Democrats are also hard to call, but we think Obama's latest surge has been mostly a product of big spending and Oprah appearances and his hard core support may fade when push comes to shove comes to the complex caucus process. In fact I think it's possible we'll see Obama support higher in number than Clinton's but still a caucus loss due to inferior organization and strategy or even some last minute bombshells that will weaken Obama support.

Clinton has one of the great political masterminds of the 20th century on her team, and it's unlikely the Clinton campaign will botch their broad based Iowa support and organization. Likewise Edwards has been through this before with good results, so his organization may outperform his actual support.

Of course even the weather can play a huge role in Iowa, as will the football game which gives Clinton a nice edge demographically as she has more female voters and they are less likely to stay home and watch the game. Stormy? Clinton wins handily due to organization and football. Perfect Weather? Obama has a shot. Edwards....second.

Oprah & Obama

Oprah's on the stump with Barack Obama and today drew the biggest crowd so far in the race as some 30,000 people came to see Oprah and hear Obama talk about Obama's vision for the future and reference Martin Luther King's dreams for America.

Although I remain skeptical that Oprah can actually swing more than a handful of voters it is possible she could be a key factor in the race either by swaying more votes than most expect or by tipping tight races in favor of Obama.

Although it is probable Iowa will be a close race it it not clear who will make it all the way to the key big state primaries.

Clinton Campaign Hostages probably safe

Network news was reporting that the hostages taken at Hilary Clinton's campaign HQ in Rochester, NH were safe, but the press conference a few moments ago suggested there may still be hostages in thebuilding.

The fate of the hostage taker is not clear, though he was reported to have something strapped to his chest and calling it a bomb, and was asking to talk to Senator Clinton.

As of 4:45m EST the police are still surrounding the building, a bomb squad is on the scence, and presumably only the hostage-taker remains inside the building thought that is not clear.