Thursday, February 07, 2008

Freakonomics: Your vote won't matter

Freakonomics brings a lot of clarity to the math of voting with a great post noting that as elections get closer the decision is less likely to be made on the basis of the vote totals, rather it'll be handled by external parties. GW Bush's win in 2000 for example, and the fact Superdelegates may determine the Democratic primary outcome in 2008.

Romney Out, McCain to take the nomination

Mitt Romney has bowed out of the Republican Primary, making it almost certain that John McCain will be the Republican nominee. Interestingly this means McCain will not need to negotiate with Mike Huckabee for his delegates at a brokered convention as he is very likely to have enough delegates to win outright.

Although some strategists have suggested McCain may pick Huckabee as a running mate this seems unlikely because McCain is very likely to win most southern states anyway, and appears likely to choose a moderate Republican running mate in an effort to have a shot at capturing Ohio, Florida, and other key states in the general election.

Only Ron Paul, Mike Huckabee, and John McCain remain in the Republican primary with McCain far ahead in delegate count and overall support.