Monday, July 28, 2008

48 to 40 or 45 to 49? What's up with the polls?

Gallup was out today with a 48 to 40% vote margin between Obama and McCain via tracking poll AND a 49 to 45% McCain advantage via a regular poll.

Despite what appear to be close poll numbers, and although the election season is only moderately underway, and although the electoral college craziness could rear its ugly head and deliver bizarre results, it really appears that McCain has a very long row to hoe in terms of planting and nurturing support for his campaign. On the upside for McCain is the fact the race remains fairly close despite the media infatuation with Obama and Obama's superior resource base.

Today one report said McCain was greeted by only a *single* reporter at a campaign stop in New Hampshire while Obama seems to be a key topic of liberal and conservative journalism alike.

Vice Presidential running mates remain the key pre-election issue and decision for both McCain and Obama. McCain appears to be leaning towards Mitt Romney although I would not count out Huckabee as somebody who would galvanize American conservatives into voting for McCain, candidate that seems to have failed to inpisire much enthusiasm in that core Republican constituency.

My hunch is that Obama's choice is likely to come *after* McCain, who, currently in Obama's media shadow, would likely grab more media buzz by choosing first. If Obama goes first he'll lose the ability to counter McCain's choice with a strategic decision and also McCain will then be able to better control the VP buzz with his own strategic decision. ie I see it as in McCain's advantage to go first, Obama second and therefore predict that's how this will shake out. could just flip a coin.

Predictions? Pundits don't make them because they are chicken sh**z, but here at President Picker we don't fear error at all:

McCain & Romney
Obama & Wesley Clark