Monday, December 31, 2007

Michael Bloomberg to enter the Presidential race ! ?

New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg's staff has been preparing for a possible presidential run on a third party ticket. This could be a very significant development given the ambivalence towards the frontrunners in both parties. Bloomberg is a Democrat but as a billionaire businessman would also have appeal to many Republicans, so his effect on the ultimate outcome is hard to predict and, unlike Ross Perot, Bloomberg arguably has a higher quotient of personal+professional appeal than Clinton, Obama, Giuliani, or Romney.

President Picker is waiting for more information on the possible Bloomberg candidacy, but at the very least this is a potentially destabilizing development for both parties. If more than two fo the current frontrunners appear to falter without a surge by the competition, look for Bloomberg to jump in to the Presidential race as a third party candidate.

Hey, I bet Donny Deutsch knows if Bloomberg will run and I'm hoping to meet him at CES Las Vegas. Deutsch's masterful advertising expertise helped bring Bill Clinton to power, and clearly marketing is a key skill for a presidential team so it wouldn't surprise me if Donny's already been contacted by the Bloomberg staff for ideas and thoughts on the possibility of a Bloomberg run.

Romney leads Republicans in latest Iowa poll

Mitt Romney now shows as the likely winner in Iowa, four points up on Huckabee according to the latest MSNBC McClatchy poll some 4 days before the caucuses. For Republicans the polls are more relevant becuase the caucus process does not involve "speaking up" for your candidate or switching support as does the Democratic caucus procedure which is more likely to shake things up.

Iowa Democrats effectively tied

Well, despite what I noted earlier about the mistaken impressions about "statistical ties" the latest MSNBC poll shows Edwards 24%, Clinton 23%, and Obama 22%. This result is *so close* that even though if this was your only source you'd want to bet on Edwards, it now appears that Iowa Democrats are pretty much tied, especially given the fact that averaging of the polls - probably a more effective measure than any single poll - now will give Edwards a boost from this top showing.

President Picker still thinks Clinton will win due to the football game advantage and Bill Clinton master strategics that we think are not properly reflected in the polls, though I have not researched the polling questions. In fact if the polls *do* reflect some apathy all bets could be off in a very close race where you may see higher-than-anticipated participation and guys skipping the game to go support their candidate.

In fact one wonders if Richardson and Biden may be negotiating behind the scenes right now for a VP slot. They will each have caucus people who will need to "switch candidates" due to the 15% caucus support threshold. Thus if they asked their supporters at the last minute to move to any of the top three it could be enough to swing the result, and the stakes in Iowa are high enough for Obama, Clinton, and Edwards that any of them might agree.

Desmoines, Iowa - Presidential tourism in action

The Desmoines Register, which I think is Iowa's main newspaper, has a neat piece showcasing tourism in Desmoines where many of the campaigns have a rather large prescence, and the election mania is reaching it's peak as the presidential caucuses loom.