Florida Primary: McCain vs Romney will be close

Most pundits are predicting a McCain win for Florida. I have not followed this one very close but my gut says that Romney will win and by a decent margin. Why? New Hampshire's polling fiasco suggest there may be a hidden voting block that does not participate in the polls but does participate in the elections. If Clinton's surprise NH victory is any indication this block could be "Senior Women" who are a large block that votes religiously. Who will senior Republican women support in Florida? Maybe McCain because he's an appealing character, but I think they'll vote disproportionately for the young, vigorous, and handsome Romney who appears far more "Presidential" and in command than McCain, who is older than many voters.

But I would not bet on this outcome....too many variables in play.

Betting on the President

Intrade is an actual gambling venue where you can bet on the various candidates to win primaries and the general election. It these gamblers are right, we'll see a McCain v Clinton General Election in the fall. At Intrade, both Obama and Romney only have about a third of the betting action chance to win their respective primaries.

Intrade odds on the 2008 elections