Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Clinton to Win CA - Exit polls

Despite a powerful showing in other states by Barack Obama, Hilary Clinton appears poised to win the California Primary, tonight's big prize in the Democratic Primary Contest.

Exit polls make it clear she's got the race and with 15% of the vote in she's way up:

Democratic primary math

RealclearPolitics has great coverage of the campaign math. Although it's a simplification, the delegate counts for the top big states at 11pm EST assuming current % stay the same and proportionality is the same as the main voting percentages (VERY approximate here!)

Obama Clinton
NY 88 137
IL 101 49
GA 63 34
NJ 46 56
MA 36 55
334 331

Wow, that's close!

Clinton v Obama - how will California Vote?

Super Tuesday may end with no clear Democratic winner. Clinton and Obama are trading victories in several Eastern states. Only 5 states have more than 100 delegates at stake (CA, NY, IL, GA, NJ), and since they are proportional in most cases you need to win big to reap a big delegate advantage.

Clinton won New York, Obama Illinois, Obama Georgia, and Clinton NJ. The big California prize is still up for grabs with those polls closing in about ten minutes, at 8pm PST.

McCain looking very strong for Republicans

As Super Tuesday results pour in McCain is looking like the likely republican winner. Huckabee is strongly positioned to win 6+ states, and whether this hurt Romney or not will be debated for some time in the Republican party. Most likely scenario right now? McCain Huckabee ticket in the fall.

Huckabee wins West Virginia

In perhaps a sign of the demise of Romney, Mike Huckabee just won the WV primary and many delegates in that conservative state. A rumor suggested that McCain supporters went to Huckabee

David Brooks suggested today on MSNBC that the data is not really suggesting that Huckabee is a Romney spoiler, noting that for Huckabee supporters McCain tends to be the second choice. The WV results support this notion.

Super ... Tuesday ... is here!

Super Tuesday has arrived and the pundits are notably ... quiet with respect to all but obvious predictions. Some pundits are not even calling this for McCain who appears, based on polling, very likely to be today's big winner as he is likely to lock up the Republican nomination today. Some conservatives are suggesting that Huckabee will be the spoiler in this for Romney in that most Huckabee support would have gone to Romney in a two way race. The fourth contender, Ron Paul, is popular online but shows little support in the national polls.

The Democrat race appears closer as many polls show Obama and Clinton in a "dead heat" nationally going into the race. However the edge would still be for Clinton since she has more superdelegate supporters, and in the Democratic race they form some 20% of the delegate total.

On Charlie Rose last night Harold Ford, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, suggested that it could be trouble for the Democrats if they don't pick a nominee today. He suggested that continued primary "fighting" could lead to an erosion of support in the face of a unified Republican effort.