Thursday, March 06, 2008

Pennsylvania a last stop? No way.

As much as I enjoy all the commentary on CNN, FOX, and especially MSNBC, I don't think the "experts" are in touch with America enough to have *any clue* about what is likely to transpire.

For example many seem to think a Clinton / Obama ticket is not likely. If Clinton wins I think is it about 90% likely she'll pick Obama as running mate. It would be idiotic not to do this. Karl Rove proved in past elections that playing powerfully to your base was a good tactic in general elections, and Obama would give Clinton the chance to play both to her base and also to act more conservative than otherwise, scooping up support from the middle ground.

It is not as clear to me that Obama would choose Clinton for VP because she in many ways contradicts his theme of change from the past. Obama would probably pick Wesley Clark or another moderate with a strong military presence and background in an effort to move his campaign to the right enough to appeal more to moderates who will be uncomfortable with Obama's very liberal politics.

CNN Democratic delegate counter

CNN has a neat Democratic "Delegate Counter" where you can play with scenarios much like John King does on the magnificent CNN wall touchscreen in their political reporting center.