The Circular Nature of Politics Favors Obama in 2012. Birth Certificate Nonsense.

It's hard not to like Barack Obama. All but his harshest and largely irrational critics find fault with a Presidential persona that quickly captivated not only a majority of Americans but a majority of *the world's population* We have not seen this level of enthusiasm for an American President since John Kennedy, and in Obama's case it's arguably more justified as Kennedy's hard line stances separated him more severely from the global "peasant class" than Obama.

The latest exhibit of the Obama charm is his perfect handling of the arrest of Professor Robert Gates of Harvard by the Cambridge Police. Gates and a friend forced entry into Gates' home due to a problem with a door, police were called, and although details are not entirely clear yet it appears Gates heaped verbal abuse on the arresting officer until the officer decided to arrest him for disorderly conduct. After initially calling the arrest "stupid" and helping to make the case national news, Obama took back this characterization, noted that both men probably overreacted to the situation, and invited them to the White House for a beer and handshake. This is both Presidential theater and politics and it's brilliant - with Obama effectively diffusing a simple but explosive situation with a simple act.

Enter the Republican Party and the anti Obama crowd, best represented by Rush Limbaugh and other right wing talk radio people and Fox news. Even as one can reasonably characterize Obama's budget busting stimulus as mistaken and dangerous these clowns are focusing on items of little interest to the general public and of almost no significance to an informed person.

First, the nonsense about Obama's birth certificate. The Right wing argument suggests that the "Mainstream Media" is burying the story *because it is real*. This of course is preposterous since 1) It's hardly buried - it's pretty much a regular lead story on right wing blogs and radio and perhaps soon even part of CNN's Lou Dobbs' increasingly nutty rants.

The story that Obama is not a citizen *if true* is a guaranteed Pultizer Prize for any legitimate reporter, so it takes a mind blinded by blathering conspiracy nonsense to think this is a cover up.

Of course it is curious that Obama has not allowed his team to produce the document, and I think it's very probably a lost / defaced / tampered certificate. Another possibility is that a perfectly normal certificate is sitting around and Obama is cleverly allowing the right to stick out it's head until the next election when he'll produce the document - effectively allowing the "enemy" to waste time and resources fighting for a lost cause.

Here's how I think this will play out over the next 3 years:

* Right wing gang will keep up the heat.

* Obama will eventually give in when the cost exceeds the cost of battling the next stage from the vast conspiracy crowd.

* The vault BC will be messed up or missing or defaced.

* The chant will shift again. What began as "Born in Kenya" and morphed to "Not born in USA" will become something like "Mother too young to be citizen" or "Obama can't be President with a defaced Document".

People should bother reading the constitution about this even though "Natural Born Citizen" is far too vague to be of help. Ironic that the Republicans are once again trying to use technicalities to take over. Perhaps after the Bush 2000 vote fiasco - where Gore won Florida but technicalities made that impossible to enforce - Republicans started to think presidential races should be determined on technicalities rather than by the consent of the governed.

But I'd caution them not to try to make that case to Washington, Adams, Jefferson, or Madison who would view the very differently. If there is ONE THING that is clear in the constition of the USA, "Consent of the Governed" matters, and the right wings attempts to thwart the will of the people should leave a bad taste in the mouth of even the staunchest Republican partisan.

Although almost every legitimate constitutional scholars will say the claims against Obama are preposterous, a handful of kooky lawyers plus the shrill and irrational voices of Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh will keep making the case, hoping it will win votes in 2012.

It won't.

Obama probably is vulnerable - and very legitimately so - in 2012 if the fight is about massive debt. Luckily for him it won't be. It'll be about "no birth certificate" for Obama and "No marriage certificate" for gays. These stupid talking points helped GW Bush win in the past, but there appears to be no Karl Rove waiting in the wings to help the next Republican challenger for the Presidency. The Republicans will knock themselves silly on culture war issues until they realize the country simply does not care that much about that stuff. They care about the economy, international challenges, health care, and massive debt.

My prediction: The Republicans have lost this before the campaign has even begun.

Election Day 2008

Voting is still underway but the outcome is already clear - Obama will win by either a modest or large number of electoral votes and probably about 54% or more of the popular vote.

Election and electoral irregularities, negative campaign strategies, and the flaws of Democracy aside, all Americans should be very proud that our nation will once again make our qauadrennial peaceful transition of executive leadership from one administration to another after a national vote.

The Obama victory will likely be viewed for centuries as one of the most significant transformative events in American history both as one of the largest swings from "conservative Republican" to liberal Democrat leadership. Obama's rise to the presidency also is something of a nail in the coffin for the pervasive but wrong race-based mythology that has suggested for a generation that America could never transcend our history of predjudice and elect an African American to the highest office.

Yet Americans can trancend the challenges of our past.

We just did.



For more about the US History check out "History and Travel" blog and website.

Obama to win in electoral landslide

It's now very clear that Barack Obama will win the US Presidency, probably in an electoral landslide of approximately 353 electoral votes for Obama & Biden to 185 electoral votes for McCain & Palin. Thankfully we won't have the close outcome that means vote counting problems, purging strategies, and lawsuits determine the outcome rather than the intention of voters.

Obama's election is very likely even in the event of a disaster of unprecedented proportions because most now feel that Obama's leadership and intelligence make him the right choice to guide the country forward, because many people have already voted, and because Obama has by far the better "get out the vote" effort. Early voting and better polling makes in increasingly unlikely that we will see any big surprises on Tuesday, as we already have a very good idea about how close to 20% of the electorate has voted and those votes are lining up with the broad polling. All these signs point to Obama as the next president.

President Picker Predicts:
353 electoral votes for Obama & Biden
185 electoral votes for McCain & Palin

The Obamercial

Pundits are wondering if Obama pulled in a few more voters with tonight's 30 minute five million dollar multi-network commercial extravaganza.

I think that was only a small part of their objective as they probably only gained a point or so across the board and gaining votes is near-meaningless in California, New York, and most of the heavily populated states (and expensive media markets) that are already lined up for Obama in terms of electoral votes - the only votes that matter in the big show.

However this was yet another master stroke of the nearly flawless Obama campaign. Why? It runs out the clock for two full days with only 6 days until the main election day, and with many people voting over the next few days in early voting areas. Obama does not need votes now - he needs to simply maintain his sizable lead. The status quo is Obama's friend and this piece helps to maintain that for him in addition to address, in a very stylish fashion, key concerns of key groups he needs.

As with most of the Axlerod innovations this was brilliant and another reason the Obama campaign is likely to go down as *the best run big campaign* in American political history.

McCain to miss his election night party

You know your campaign is in big trouble when the candidate says he may not even attend his election night party.

Some reports suggest John McCain will be bowing out of the small party scheduled in an Arizona Hotel due to "space limitations". AP Reports

Meanwhile Obama's team is preparing a huge stadium for what polls suggest will be a huge election night acceptance speech by Obama.

McCain is now outspent by over 3 to 1, losing in every poll, and appears to be on the verge of a campaign meltdown as they concede state after state to Obama. Pennsylvania may be McCain's sort of "hail mary pass" where they hope to turn the state red and shift the 21 electoral votes to McCain. Even this won't work unless McCain also picks up other states in which he currently trails such as Ohio and Indiana.

Obama Birth Certificate

Yes, Obama was born in the USA. Here's the birth certificate issued by Hawaii. Note at the bottom that this is considered "primae facie" evidence in any court of law.

Here is even more detail (including the Certificate number which was blacked out in this copy)* for those of you gullible enough to believe Jerome Corsi is not manipulating the evidence to smear Obama unfairly, which seems to be his main objective with the book "ObamaNation".

PresidentPicker.com Endorses Obama for President

When I started this blog I'd hoped to provide objectivity in a race I knew would be clouded with the usual nonsense of our American democratic experience where marketing and the politics of personal destruction trump the issues. I had not planned to endorse any candidates. But time and politics have changed and so...

President Picker endorses Barack Obama for President.

Like Christopher Buckley I'm a small government low tax fiscal conservative, but also like Buckley I think the country right now needs - desparately - a "first class mind" in the oval office. The world faces the greatest fiscal crisis since the great depression, and global terrorism remains a critical threat around the world. Obama, unlike any other prominent American leader, will send a signal to the world that the USA remains both the shining beacon of prosperity we have always been but also is asserting an entirely new approach to internal affairs - an approach characterized by flexibility, compassion, and intelligent reflection rather than the knee jerk ideological responses that have compromised our reputation and standing in the global community for the past 6 years.

Obama appears to be the right man for these challenging times. I hope that the economic challenges will force Obama into more realistic ideas about how the economy and personal responsibility need to be part of the big equation, while the country will benefit from Obama's ability to galvanize support and bring people together.

The future is uncertain and potentially very perilous. Major changes are in order, and Barack Obama is the person America needs right now.

McCain challenges nonsense about Obama

John McCain deserves praise for his statements making it very clear that Obama is an honorable man and candidate. "He's a decent family man citizen...he's a person you do not have to be scared...." said McCain to a crowd that clearly wanted a speech with more red baiting and red meat.

Although the McCain campaign has crossed the line many times using guilt-by-association to try to to paint Obama as a supporter of terror and other nonsense, but it's great to see John McCain taking the microphone away from a lady as she said "Obama is an Arab" and pointing out to his supporters that Obama poses no threat to the stability of the country.

Spirited politics has a long history in the USA, but as the Obama lead grows and frustration mounts all Americans should be very concerned about the tone of the anti-Obama rhetoric, which at it's extreme is supporting violence.

A sure way to betray the proud ideals of American freedom is to threaten to silence opposing ideas with violence. I'm very glad to see John McCain backing away from supporters who don't seem to understand that.

Gwen Ifill's Debate Dilemma

PBS's VP Debate moderator Gwen Ifill's upcoming book about the rise of African American politics in the "Age of Obama" is raising some eyebrows as she'll be moderating the debate between Sarah Palin and Joe Biden tommorrow night.

As Brit Hume correctly noted today there is little reason to think she won't be objective but it is of some concern that the book, set to release on *inauguration day* means that Ifill has a significant financial stake in the outcome of the election (ie her perspective if Obama wins is far, far more valuable than if he loses).

With journalistic objectivity pretty much in a death spiral already, I think PBS should be getting *out* of the game of partisan journalism rather than finding themselves squarely in the eye of that storm.

Given that Gwen just broke her ankle she's got a great excuse to pass her debate duties along to another and she probably should do that. Unless the McCain campaign had been briefed about her book when they agreed to have Ifill moderate the debate it's not reasonable for her to claim this should be of no concern at this time, especially given the publication date which clearly presages the outcome of the election. Ifill is involved in predicting and profiting from the outcome of this election and therefore should offer to excuse herself from the debate.

FYI Ms. Ifill - McCain will tell you to go ahead anyway, so why not take the high road here?

Obama's lead increasing.

When even Fox election pundit Dick Morris is predicting an Obama win McCain shoud know he's got trouble, and McCain has .... big trouble both in the polls and strategically.

First, the polls from RealClearPolitics:

RCP Average	09/21 - 09/29	--	48.1	43.0	Obama +5.1
Gallup Tracking	09/27 - 09/29	2729 RV	49	43	Obama +6
Rasmussen Tracking	09/27 - 09/29	3000 LV	51	45	Obama +6
Hotline/FD Tracking	09/27 - 09/29	901 RV	47	41	Obama +6
GW/Battleground Tracking	09/24 - 09/29	800 LV	48	46	Obama +2
CBS News/NY Times	09/21 - 09/24	LV	48	43	Obama +5
FOX News	09/22 - 09/23	900 RV	45	39	Obama +6
Marist	09/22 - 09/23	689 LV	49	44	Obama +5

Perhaps as importantly, Obama's lead it protected by several factors as we move into the final month of the campaign for the White House:

* Economy problems will help Obama. Even if these are resolved it'll be hard for McCain to take much credit for the solutions and dodge blame for the problems which most are pinning mostly on GW Bush and the Republicans.

* Sarah Palin will wind up hurting McCain. Even many conservatives are alarmed by Palin's challenges facing media scrutiny and what appears to be a clear history of not concerning herself with global issues. Expectations are very low for Thursday's debate with Joe Biden which may work to Palin's advantage, but unless the Palin perceptions change dramatically she appears to be a liability on McCain right now with the very voters she needed to secure - moderate women.

* Ohio's registration rules were just changed to allow same day registration which is likely to help Obama because first time and young voters are more likely to be Obama supporters.

* Obama dodged the potential bullets of the first debate and came out as the clear winner among undecided voters even in that mostly foreign policy forum. The next debates feature stronger Obama territory so McCain needs a knockout punch to shift opinion dramatically.

Palin, Pakistan, and Philly Cheesesteaks

Sara Palin deserves a lot of the media criticism she's getting, both for being largely inaccessible to the media and also for her apparent lifetime lack of interest in the complexity and nuance of international politics - a skill that is important for anybody in top office who will be negotiating with world leaders.

HOWEVER

The media "analysis" of Sara Palin's recent comments to a young Democratic party hack while in a Philly Cheesesteak line are nonsensical, bordering on the drooling stupidity we've come to know as .. TV Journalism.

Palin suggested that the US should pursue terrorists across the Pakistan border if necessary, a policy embraced by Obama but rejected by McCain. It's not clear to me how this is even a gaffe, let alone something indicating she's not qualified to be President. Clearly a President and VP can disagree on some policy issues, and more importantly this "gotcha" approach to journalism leaves key issues undiscussed in favor of mostly irrelevant sound bites. CNN today interviewed the fellow who asked the question - a Democratic party activist - who appeared to seize this Cheesesteak opportunity to make Palin look inconsistent with McCain and then I think lied that he had that agenda.

What is wrong with the media? Bias is not the key problem here, rather *superficiality*.

Electoral College Adventures - what if 269 to 269?

If you've played around with the RealClearPolitics Electoral map you'll know there are several scenarios where Obama and McCain might split the electoral vote right down the middle with 269 votes each. What you might NOT know is how this tie is broken. Yes, it's a congressional vote but not simply one vote per congressman which would almost certainly give an Electoral tie to Obama since the Democrats are unlikely to lose control of Congress. But wait... in this electoral tie scenario my understanding is that each *state* gets ONE vote per state congressional delegation and each Senator gets one vote. Making this even more unpredictable is the fact that it's not entirely clear if the old or incoming congress would vote though I think I read it would be the new congress as it's first act in office.

I haven't found a source yet that looks at all the current state congressional delegations to see if how they'd likely split in an electoral tie. Let's hope that piece of trivia remains ... largely irrelevant.

Debate 1: A Tie?

It's going to be very interesting to see the reactions to the first Presidential debate though based on CNN's fascinating and somewhat distracting "Audience Reaction" trend lines it looks like this debate won't change many minds.

Most Republicans will be comforted by McCain's responses and most Democrats by Obamas. Independents - potentially a very significant group of undecided voters - did not seem to show a strong preference unless I missed something, though at the end of the debate it really appeared that Obama scored well and McCain poorly - perhaps because Obama seemed more positive and less distracted as things wound up and the audience seemed to react most positively to positive messages.

Google "In Quotes" project lets you track down the truth

Google Labs has a great new project that searches the internet for quotes by Obama and McCain on any topic you enter, allowing you to compare what the candidates *reportedly* said about any topic.

The tool will need to be used with some caution as it is not clear if this will screen out misquotes, though presumably In Quotes won't search through highly partisan websites and will stick to responsible journalistic outlets to decide what the candidates said.

Eventually this will extend to all political races, giving reporters and voters a great resource in the fight for ... truth in politics...

Wall Street Connections for Obama and McCain

This excellent article has details about both McCain and Obama's campaign contribution connections to Wall Street, including some of the firms now getting bailed out by ... you and me and other taxpayers.

Twisted campaign commercial banter notwithstanding, it's clear to anybody that their is a very questionable relationship between campaign contributions and legislation. It's not that Obama or McCain have some sort of quid pro quo with contributors - they do NOT have that. However, it's clear that contributions help keep supporters in power and keep those to whom they contribute within earshot, key reasons companies spend so much on politics.

Like pigs with lipstick, the campaigns and foolish journalistic lackeys failing are failing to discuss or report about the key issues in the race: A Challenged Economy and looming home equity disaster, war and global hegemony and dangerous adversaries, and massive Government Spending. Unfortunately clear thinkers won't find a candidate with good ideas about all these things. Where are the founders when you need them?

Let the real race begin!

The Convention dust appears to have settled, leaving us with a close race and a slight Obama lead - probably narrower than before the conventions and the remarkable rise of Sarah Palin as McCain's muse. Palin has effectively consolidated McCain's formerly unenthusiastic conservative support and appears to be drawing votes from some moderates who would like to see a woman in the office regardless of her politics.

A factor of interest that makes the polling even harder to read it the increasing level of media bias in the election. Where CNN maintains a modest, sufficient level of journalistic objectivity, Fox's talk shows and even some Fox anchors have always been unabashedly and unapologetically in support of the Republican agenda. Yet now we find a similar kind of zealotry on MSNBC, especially with Rachel Maddow Kieth Olberman whose partisanship is giving right winger Sean Hannity a run for his ideologically influenced journalistic money.

The challenge for the viewer is that the poll numbers are getting reported differently - so much so that today we have MSNBC reporting Obama in the lead and Fox reporting McCain, each probably overweighting their own problematic sampling methods. As usual RealClearPolitics is a great way to cut through the chatter with a great summary of all major polls and the RCP running average, which I'd suggest is the best way to determine what's going on nationally.
RealClearPolitics.com

Rove: Watch Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado

Karl Rove penned a very interesting electoral analysis last month where he suggests that the race is likely to hinge on the outcome in four key states: Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado. Since the decision is made on the basis of electoral votes and not popular vote, and since several states award all their votes rather than proportional distribution of electoral votes, certain states will matter where others are pretty much a given for either McCain (e.g. Texas) or Obama (e.g. New York).

I see Ohio as pretty much the key battleground state. Ohio was key in 2004 when GW Bush's narrow victory there gave him the win over John Kerry. Although the 2004 race there was not as close as Florida's (where the butterfly ballot fiasco created a super narrow win for Bush even though the intention of several thousand voters was to to vote for Gore but ballot design meant they voted for both Gore and Buchanon and thus had the ballot spoiled. As I've note before Florida 2000 is usually analyzed strangely and wrongly - either as a Supreme Court "coup" or as a real "win" by Bush. It was neither, rather it was a fluke of our terrible electoral system (which should award electors proportionally) and ballot irregularities (which are hard to fix but won't matter nearly as much if we use a national vote count).

So, Ohio probably holds the key to the election, and if you live there get ready to watch more TV ads than you've ever seen on a single topic in your entire life...

McCain beating Obama in popular vote, electoral still edging towards Obama.

The Republican convention dust and bumps have yet to settle, and perhaps more importantly Sarah Palin remains carefully closeted away from personal media interaction. Yet one thing that is clear is that McCain's choice of Palin has breathed new life into his campaign and that he appears to be leading in the national popular vote, though most electoral counts still seem to favor Obama by a very narrow electoral vote margin. Given the incredible closeness it is again possible that we'll see our very questionable electoral voting system overtun the popular vote as it did in 2000. It is important to note that it's not clear how the popular voting would change if candidates could spend more time campaigning in their strongholds - something that is not done much in the electoral system because the battleground states are the key to the win.

Ohio is again emerging as the probable *key* battleground state, with polls showing McCain and Obama tied right now.

Who is that old guy next to Sarah Palin?

Gov. Sarah Palin and Sen. John McCain
Originally uploaded by buddhakiwi

As the third day of the Republican Convention gets underway it's hard to hear much news about anything but McCain's VP pick Sarah Palin, Alaska's conservative reformist Governor who will speak tonight in Minneapolis - a speech that may attract as much attention as Barack Obama's rockstar-like show in Denver last week.

I'm starting to understand the simple and risky strategy behind McCain's very unusual choice of Palin, and I think it will prove to be a blunder of near Presidential proportions, but this remains to be seen.

One part of the strategy that has worked magnificently is how quickly Palin's VP nod has focused attention away from Obama and the Democratic Convention but Palin was also one of the very few (she may be the only) national polical figures who fit the following bill:

* Conservative. (esp. on pro life, pro guns, pro big military, anti social spending) McCain's lackluster support among many conservatives has been a major thorn in his side. Palin is *more* conservative than most of his conservative critics, and they clearly love this choice and will fight harder for this ticket than become disaffected by a McCain / Lieberman ticket which would have much better suited McCain's personal and political sensibilities.

* Female. McCain felt a woman on the ticket would help keep at least some disaffected Clinton supporters off balance and undecided. Despite the handful of Clinton-turned-Palin women FOX news will parade as an example of this strategy working, it's very unlikely that many of the core Clinton supporters will change party and ideological allegiance so dramatically. How many women will put gender above almost every other key Democratic issue? Very few.

* Young and attractive. McCain, more than anybody, is feeling the pain of going up against a rock star candidate. Palin's personal appeal helps shore up that front.

* Fighter. This last factor may be the single most important in the equation, and it is the one that helps make sense of what many see as a very strange McCain decision. McCain's personal style matches Palin's in several ways, and he sees Palin's unique situation with respect to her own baby Trig and her daughter's teen pregnancy as positive and provocative talking points in their fight for the presidency. Where some would say the Palin children challenges reflect some hypocrisy, McCain Palin will argue that the problems are not caused by teen pregnancy so much as missing dads and unsupportive families, and that right to life issues trump any potential disabilies - even the severe ones faced by Palin's baby son.

My view on this last factor is that it will probably backfire because it will be impossible for Palin to bring these talking points up without sounding like she is exploiting her family challenges for political gain. Only if she is directly challenged can she react dramatically and combatively and retain the sympathy of middle of the road Americans, and you won't see this type of direct attack. Democrats don't need to bring these issues up at all anyway. The media, always hungry for red meat analysis and conflict, will continue to report on them while Palin will struggle to find ways to counter those stories effectively since they won't be coming from a clear enemy.

End game? Palin gives Obama about 5-10 point advantage he would not have had if McCain had continued to focus on the "experience" issue and brought on an experienced VP.

McCain to pick Meg Whitman ?

Update: Sarah Palin is the McCain VP Pick

As the Democratic National Convention wraps up tonight with what promises to be a near "rock star" event featuring Barack Obama, John McCain is preparing to announce his pick for Vice Presendential running mate tomorrow at a large rally in Ohio.

President Picker says that McCain will probably pick former EBAY CEO and billionaire Meg Whitman both thanks to her strong economic background in the private sector and the appeal a woman will bring to the ticket for the millions of older women who have suggested they'll either support McCain or not vote at all after their disappointment with the failure of the Hillary Clinton campaign.

For McCain, this is a complex strategy but I think it's a viable one. Polls are showing that many Clinton supporters, especially women, are feeling disaffected. There is arguably no better way to encourage them to either switch to McCain or stay away from the polls than to force them to vote *against* a woman on the ticket. In all of US history there has only been a single woman on a presidential campaign ticket - Geraldine Ferarro with Walter Mondale almost three decades ago.

Will women vote for McCain only because he's got a woman on the ticket? A few will, but more importantly from a strategic point of view the choice of Whitman will help keep the disaffection alive on the Democratic side as a constant reminder to women of Obama's decision that he would *not* place Hillary Clinton on his own ticket, leaving women out of the Presidential power game yet again.