Showing posts with label Obama. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Obama. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 06, 2012

Exit Polls 2012, Ohio Exit Polling should give clues to the Romney v Obama 2012 Race

The US Presidential Election is here (as well as the US Senate, House, and thousands of local races) and we all would like to know the outcomes ... before the final tally.    Based on the best statistical analysis of polling through last week, Obama is the very likely winner of the presidential race.   Why?    Partly because Obama is winning in virtually all of the 'toss up" states where in some cases a small lead will translate into a very disproportionate number of votes.   Ohio, the key battleground, is leaning Obama and would give him 18 electoral votes. For Romney to pull off a victory he'll really need to "beat the odds" and win almost all the toss up states.    Obama, on the other hand, could lose more of the toss ups and still win the election.  

Based on Nate Silver's excellent statistical analysis from the New York Times, where he gives Obama a 91% chance of victory based on poll information, President Picker is predicting an Obama win today even before we see any exit poll information.    

What would have to happen for Romney to win?    Romney's hope is that the polls in battleground states have been biased in favor of Obama.   This seems unlikely but it is possible.   Conservatives may have been less likely to participate in the polls, methods may have included those who don't wind up voting, etc, etc.   However, contrary to many claims US polls, exit and otherwise, tend to be very accurate and a good predictor of election outcomes.   In 2000 for example, the exit polls stated that Gore won florida because ... he *would have won* Florida if the ballots in Palm Beach County had reflected voter intention.  These "butterfly ballots" led to confusion and many lost votes for Gore  (due to "overvoting" where people voted for both Gore and Buchanon for President and therefore the vote was NOT counted).    Exit polling was blamed in Florida when the real defect was the butterfly ballot of Palm Beach County   (designed and reviewed by Democrats, so unlikely to have been a conspiracy play to undercount Gore votes).

Today we'll be watching the toss up states - RealClearPolitics will have good coverage linked below.    Ohio is the key.   If Obama takes Ohio it's pretty much over.   However, if Romney takes Ohio it is likely to be a very long night, withe the prospect of another 2000 style election recount fiasco.

Toss Up (146)
CO (9)FL (29)
IA (6)MI (16)
NV (6)NH (4)
NC (15)OH (18)
PA (20)VA (13)
WI (10)

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Presidential Election 2012: As Ohio Goes so Goes the Nation

As the Presidential race tightens and Hurricane Sandy whips the country into a frenzy only one week before the election, it's becoming very clear that the key state this year will be .... OHIO.     Both parties will pour many more millions into Ohio advertising over the coming week, but clearly the outcome will remain uncertain until election day.    Obama is currently showing a slight lead based on polling averages at RealClearPolitics.com, but some polls such as Rasmussen show Romney now leading  (though Rasmussen does tend to skew Republican).  

Without Ohio no Republican has won the white house, and it's unlikely that Romney could be the exception to this rule.   If Ohio goes Obama then Mitt Romney would have to win *every other battleground state* to win, and that outcome is very unlikely.

In fact current polling generally shows Obama winning the election by electoral votes while *losing* the popular vote.    This is a rare occurrence but as you recall it happened in 2000 when GW Bush beat Al Gore by electoral votes while losing the national popular vote by about 500,000.

Turnout will also be a critical factor.  Incredibly, it's entirely possible that a bright sunny Nov 6 in Ohio will give the election to Obama while a rainy cold day will push it to Mitt Romney.    

Friday, September 14, 2012

Obama Romney 2012 Presidential Debate Schedule


Frank J. Fahrenkopf, Jr. and Michael D. McCurry, co-chairmen of the non-partisan, non-profit Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD), today announced formats for the presidential and vice presidential debates that feature extended discussion of major issues to be announced in advance.
The formats for the 90-minute debates are as follows:

First presidential debate (October 3, 2012, University of Denver, Denver, CO)
The debate will focus on domestic policy and be divided into six time segments of approximately 15 minutes each on topics to be selected by the moderator and announced several weeks before the debate.
The moderator will open each segment with a question, after which each candidate will have two minutes to respond. The moderator will use the balance of the time in the segment for a discussion of the topic.
Vice presidential debate (October 11, 2012, Centre College, Danville, KY)
The debate will cover both foreign and domestic topics and be divided into nine time segments of approximately 10 minutes each. The moderator will ask an opening question, after which each candidate will have two minutes to respond. The moderator will use the balance of the time in the segment for a discussion of the question.
Second presidential debate (October 16, 2012, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY)
The second presidential debate will take the form of a town meeting, in which citizens will ask questions of the candidates on foreign and domestic issues. Candidates each will have two minutes to respond, and an additional minute for the moderator to facilitate a discussion. The town meeting participants will be undecided voters selected by the Gallup Organization.
Third presidential debate (October 22, Lynn University, Boca Raton, FL)
The format for the debate will be identical to the first presidential debate and will focus on foreign policy.

All debates will be moderated by a single individual and will take place from 9:00-10:30 p.m. Eastern Time. There will be no opening statements and two-minute closing statements in all the debates. In all the debates except town meeting, the CPD recommends that the candidates be seated at a table with the moderator. Moderators will be selected and announced in August.
In addition, the CPD is undertaking an innovative internet-based voter education program that will encourage citizens to become familiar with the issues to be discussed in the debates, and to share their input with the debate moderators in advance of the debates. The program, which will be announced later this month, will be led by a coalition of internet leaders.
Fahrenkopf and McCurry said that the formats reflect extensive study by the CPD board of directors: "There are serious issues facing this country and the public has the right to expect a serious examination of those issues during this fall's debates. The CPD believes this can be accomplished best by focusing big time blocks on major domestic and foreign topics. The topics will be selected and announced in advance of the debates by the debate moderators.
"The debates are the most widely-watched political programs of any kind. These format changes are designed to promote substantive dialogue before, during and between the debates about the major issues of the day. They will permit citizens and candidates to come prepared for a series of voter education forums that inform and engage the public.
"Coupled with the internet program, the debates will serve as the foundation for a season of conversation this fall. Technology offers the means to provide and receive information - the CPD is committed to using this tool creatively and effectively to bring as many people as possible into the conversation."
The CPD has sponsored and produced all the presidential and vice presidential debates since 1987, the year it was established. More information can be found at www.debates.org.

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Convention Bounce for Obama puts him back in the lead

Although some media outlets are still reporting a "dead heat", it's pretty clear that Obama is enjoying a post-convention bounce and probably remains a few points ahead of Romney.   If the election were held today, Obama would be the very likely winner both in terms of total vote and, more importantly, the electoral vote.

2012 Electoral votes may come into play again, though at this time it appears Obama's likely to take both the popular and the electoral vote, the latter by a larger margin.

Many of us have our fingers crossed that we will not again see a fiasco like the Gore v Bush election.   Gore won the popular vote in that election by about 500,000 votes nationally, but lost in the electoral college when all of Florida's electoral votes went to GW Bush after a series of court challenges that wound up in the Supreme Court.    Many fail to note that the exit polls from that election were *very* accurate in suggesting that Gore "won" the election, but in addition to other less important errors, the ballots in Palm Beach county was so confusing that people who thought they voted for Gore wound up as "overvotes" and were discarded - most because they had a vote for both Gore and for Pat Buchanon.    

Tuesday, September 04, 2012

Michelle Obama Speech - transcript from 2012 Democratic National Convention


Tonight's speech by Michelle Obama showed that it's not only the president with exception oratorical skill.  Smooth and powerful, Michelle Obama articulated the vision for America she feels her husband brings to the table, and roused fellow Democratics at the Convention.  Here is the transcript:
----------------
Michelle Obama speech at the 2012 Democratic National Convention:
Thank you so much, Elaine…we are so grateful for your family’s service and sacrifice…and we will always have your back.
Over the past few years as First Lady, I have had the extraordinary privilege of traveling all across this country.
And everywhere I’ve gone, in the people I’ve met, and the stories I’ve heard, I have seen the very best of the American spirit.
I have seen it in the incredible kindness and warmth that people have shown me and my family, especially our girls.
I’ve seen it in teachers in a near-bankrupt school district who vowed to keep teaching without pay.
I’ve seen it in people who become heroes at a moment’s notice, diving into harm’s way to save others…flying across the country to put out a fire…driving for hours to bail out a flooded town.
And I’ve seen it in our men and women in uniform and our proud military families…in wounded warriors who tell me they’re not just going to walk again, they’re going to run, and they’re going to run marathons…in the young man blinded by a bomb in Afghanistan who said, simply, “…I’d give my eyes 100 times again to have the chance to do what I have done and what I can still do.”
Every day, the people I meet inspire me…every day, they make me proud…every day they remind me how blessed we are to live in the greatest nation on earth.
Serving as your First Lady is an honor and a privilege…but back when we first came together four years ago, I still had some concerns about this journey we’d begun.
While I believed deeply in my husband’s vision for this country…and I was certain he would make an extraordinary President…like any mother, I was worried about what it would mean for our girls if he got that chance.
How would we keep them grounded under the glare of the national spotlight?
How would they feel being uprooted from their school, their friends, and the only home they’d ever known?
Our life before moving to Washington was filled with simple joys…Saturdays at soccer games, Sundays at grandma’s house…and a date night for Barack and me was either dinner or a movie, because as an exhausted mom, I couldn’t stay awake for both.
And the truth is, I loved the life we had built for our girls…I deeply loved the man I had built that life with…and I didn’t want that to change if he became President.
I loved Barack just the way he was.
You see, even though back then Barack was a Senator and a presidential candidate…to me, he was still the guy who’d picked me up for our dates in a car that was so rusted out, I could actually see the pavement going by through a hole in the passenger side door…he was the guy whose proudest possession was a coffee table he’d found in a dumpster, and whose only pair of decent shoes was half a size too small.
But when Barack started telling me about his family – that’s when I knew I had found a kindred spirit, someone whose values and upbringing were so much like mine.
You see, Barack and I were both raised by families who didn’t have much in the way of money or material possessions but who had given us something far more valuable – their unconditional love, their unflinching sacrifice, and the chance to go places they had never imagined for themselves.
My father was a pump operator at the city water plant, and he was diagnosed with Multiple Sclerosis when my brother and I were young.
And even as a kid, I knew there were plenty of days when he was in pain…I knew there were plenty of mornings when it was a struggle for him to simply get out of bed.
But every morning, I watched my father wake up with a smile, grab his walker, prop himself up against the bathroom sink, and slowly shave and button his uniform.
And when he returned home after a long day’s work, my brother and I would stand at the top of the stairs to our little apartment, patiently waiting to greet him…watching as he reached down to lift one leg, and then the other, to slowly climb his way into our arms.
But despite these challenges, my dad hardly ever missed a day of work…he and my mom were determined to give me and my brother the kind of education they could only dream of.
And when my brother and I finally made it to college, nearly all of our tuition came from student loans and grants.
But my dad still had to pay a tiny portion of that tuition himself.
And every semester, he was determined to pay that bill right on time, even taking out loans when he fell short.
He was so proud to be sending his kids to college…and he made sure we never missed a registration deadline because his check was late.
You see, for my dad, that’s what it meant to be a man.
Like so many of us, that was the measure of his success in life – being able to earn a decent living that allowed him to support his family.
And as I got to know Barack, I realized that even though he’d grown up all the way across the country, he’d been brought up just like me.
Barack was raised by a single mother who struggled to pay the bills, and by grandparents who stepped in when she needed help.
Barack’s grandmother started out as a secretary at a community bank…and she moved quickly up the ranks…but like so many women, she hit a glass ceiling.
And for years, men no more qualified than she was – men she had actually trained – were promoted up the ladder ahead of her, earning more and more money while Barack’s family continued to scrape by.
But day after day, she kept on waking up at dawn to catch the bus…arriving at work before anyone else…giving her best without complaint or regret.
And she would often tell Barack, “So long as you kids do well, Bar, that’s all that really matters.”
Like so many American families, our families weren’t asking for much.
They didn’t begrudge anyone else’s success or care that others had much more than they did...in fact, they admired it.
They simply believed in that fundamental American promise that, even if you don’t start out with much, if you work hard and do what you’re supposed to do, then you should be able to build a decent life for yourself and an even better life for your kids and grandkids.
That’s how they raised us…that’s what we learned from their example.
We learned about dignity and decency – that how hard you work matters more than how much you make…that helping others means more than just getting ahead yourself.
We learned about honesty and integrity – that the truth matters…that you don’t take shortcuts or play by your own set of rules…and success doesn’t count unless you earn it fair and square.
We learned about gratitude and humility – that so many people had a hand in our success, from the teachers who inspired us to the janitors who kept our school clean…and we were taught to value everyone’s contribution and treat everyone with respect.
Those are the values Barack and I – and so many of you – are trying to pass on to our own children.
That’s who we are.
And standing before you four years ago, I knew that I didn’t want any of that to change if Barack became President.
Well, today, after so many struggles and triumphs and moments that have tested my husband in ways I never could have imagined, I have seen firsthand that being president doesn’t change who you are – it reveals who you are.
You see, I’ve gotten to see up close and personal what being president really looks like.
And I’ve seen how the issues that come across a President’s desk are always the hard ones – the problems where no amount of data or numbers will get you to the right answer…the judgment calls where the stakes are so high, and there is no margin for error.
And as President, you can get all kinds of advice from all kinds of people.
But at the end of the day, when it comes time to make that decision, as President, all you have to guide you are your values, and your vision, and the life experiences that make you who you are.
So when it comes to rebuilding our economy, Barack is thinking about folks like my dad and like his grandmother.
He’s thinking about the pride that comes from a hard day’s work.
That’s why he signed the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act to help women get equal pay for equal work.
That’s why he cut taxes for working families and small businesses and fought to get the auto industry back on its feet.
That’s how he brought our economy from the brink of collapse to creating jobs again – jobs you can raise a family on, good jobs right here in the United States of America.
When it comes to the health of our families, Barack refused to listen to all those folks who told him to leave health reform for another day, another president.
He didn’t care whether it was the easy thing to do politically – that’s not how he was raised – he cared that it was the right thing to do.
He did it because he believes that here in America, our grandparents should be able to afford their medicine…our kids should be able to see a doctor when they’re sick…and no one in this country should ever go broke because of an accident or illness.
And he believes that women are more than capable of making our own choices about our bodies and our health care…that’s what my husband stands for.
When it comes to giving our kids the education they deserve, Barack knows that like me and like so many of you, he never could’ve attended college without financial aid.
And believe it or not, when we were first married, our combined monthly student loan bills were actually higher than our mortgage.
We were so young, so in love, and so in debt.
That’s why Barack has fought so hard to increase student aid and keep interest rates down, because he wants every young person to fulfill their promise and be able to attend college without a mountain of debt.
So in the end, for Barack, these issues aren’t political – they’re personal.
Because Barack knows what it means when a family struggles.
He knows what it means to want something more for your kids and grandkids.
Barack knows the American Dream because he’s lived it…and he wants everyone in this country to have that same opportunity, no matter who we are, or where we’re from, or what we look like, or who we love.
And he believes that when you’ve worked hard, and done well, and walked through that doorway of opportunity…you do not slam it shut behind you…you reach back, and you give other folks the same chances that helped you succeed.
So when people ask me whether being in the White House has changed my husband, I can honestly say that when it comes to his character, and his convictions, and his heart, Barack Obama is still the same man I fell in love with all those years ago.
He’s the same man who started his career by turning down high paying jobs and instead working in struggling neighborhoods where a steel plant had shut down, fighting to rebuild those communities and get folks back to work…because for Barack, success isn’t about how much money you make, it’s about the difference you make in people’s lives.
He’s the same man who, when our girls were first born, would anxiously check their cribs every few minutes to ensure they were still breathing, proudly showing them off to everyone we knew.
That’s the man who sits down with me and our girls for dinner nearly every night, patiently answering their questions about issues in the news, and strategizing about middle school friendships.
That’s the man I see in those quiet moments late at night, hunched over his desk, poring over the letters people have sent him.
The letter from the father struggling to pay his bills…from the woman dying of cancer whose insurance company won’t cover her care…from the young person with so much promise but so few opportunities.
I see the concern in his eyes...and I hear the determination in his voice as he tells me, “You won’t believe what these folks are going through, Michelle…it’s not right. We’ve got to keep working to fix this. We’ve got so much more to do.”
I see how those stories – our collection of struggles and hopes and dreams – I see how that’s what drives Barack Obama every single day.
And I didn’t think it was possible, but today, I love my husband even more than I did four years ago…even more than I did 23 years ago, when we first met.
I love that he’s never forgotten how he started.
I love that we can trust Barack to do what he says he’s going to do, even when it’s hard – especially when it’s hard.
I love that for Barack, there is no such thing as “us” and “them” – he doesn’t care whether you’re a Democrat, a Republican, or none of the above…he knows that we all love our country…and he’s always ready to listen to good ideas…he’s always looking for the very best in everyone he meets.
And I love that even in the toughest moments, when we’re all sweating it – when we’re worried that the bill won’t pass, and it seems like all is lost – Barack never lets himself get distracted by the chatter and the noise.
Just like his grandmother, he just keeps getting up and moving forward…with patience and wisdom, and courage and grace.
And he reminds me that we are playing a long game here…and that change is hard, and change is slow, and it never happens all at once.
But eventually we get there, we always do.
We get there because of folks like my Dad…folks like Barack’s grandmother…men and women who said to themselves, “I may not have a chance to fulfill my dreams, but maybe my children will…maybe my grandchildren will.”
So many of us stand here tonight because of their sacrifice, and longing, and steadfast love…because time and again, they swallowed their fears and doubts and did what was hard.
So today, when the challenges we face start to seem overwhelming – or even impossible – let us never forget that doing the impossible is the history of this nation…it’s who we are as Americans…it’s how this country was built.
And if our parents and grandparents could toil and struggle for us…if they could raise beams of steel to the sky, send a man to the moon, and connect the world with the touch of a button…then surely we can keep on sacrificing and building for our own kids and grandkids.
And if so many brave men and women could wear our country’s uniform and sacrifice their lives for our most fundamental rights…then surely we can do our part as citizens of this great democracy to exercise those rights…surely, we can get to the polls and make our voices heard on Election Day.
If farmers and blacksmiths could win independence from an empire…if immigrants could leave behind everything they knew for a better life on our shores…if women could be dragged to jail for seeking the vote…if a generation could defeat a depression, and define greatness for all time…if a young preacher could lift us to the mountaintop with his righteous dream…and if proud Americans can be who they are and boldly stand at the altar with who they love…then surely, surely we can give everyone in this country a fair chance at that great American Dream.
Because in the end, more than anything else, that is the story of this country – the story of unwavering hope grounded in unyielding struggle.
That is what has made my story, and Barack’s story, and so many other American stories possible.
And I say all of this tonight not just as First Lady…and not just as a wife.
You see, at the end of the day, my most important title is still “mom-in-chief.”
My daughters are still the heart of my heart and the center of my world.
But today, I have none of those worries from four years ago about whether Barack and I were doing what’s best for our girls.
Because today, I know from experience that if I truly want to leave a better world for my daughters, and all our sons and daughters…if we want to give all our children a foundation for their dreams and opportunities worthy of their promise…if we want to give them that sense of limitless possibility – that belief that here in America, there is always something better out there if you’re willing to work for it…then we must work like never before…and we must once again come together and stand together for the man we can trust to keep moving this great country forward…my husband, our President, President Barack Obama.
Thank you, God bless you, and God bless America.

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Romney or Bachman or ? for the Republican Nomination

As the debt ceiling / US budget theatrics continue in Washington (prediction - compromises coming in a few days to avert an S&P downgrade) , the race for the Republican presidential nomination continues in a somewhat lackluster fashion with several potential candidates on the sidelines waiting to see if they can muster enough support to throw their hat into the ring.

However Republicans must be concerned that none of the current crop appear likely to defeat Obama unless the economy suffers significantly greater setbacks in the next year. It's alarming to think that some radical Republicans may have this scenario in mind as they continue to stall on budget compromises and raising the debt ceiling, hoping to harm the economy enough to defeat Obama but not enough to send us into a tailspin. That calculation would not only be unpatriotic, it would be potentially disastrous for the country.

The current best bet appears to be that Mitt Romney will sort of plod into the Republican nomination with Michelle Bachmann pulling in the Tea Party folks, leaving moderate Republicans a choice between Rick Perry and Mitt Romney who are polling about equally in scenarios where Perry's in the ring (he has not announced yet but is very likely to do so if his numbers stay as high as now. RealClearPolitics has Romney at 18%, Perry at 17% in a race where all the strong potential candidates are placed in the ring. With only *announced* candidates, Romney's in a strong lead at 27% with Bachmann second with 18% , Ron Paul third with 11%.

Look for Palin to stay out of the race and hope for a VP spot on the likely Romney or Perry ticket. Look for Bachmann to *get* the VP spot on the Romney or Perry ticket, giving the Republicans a similar strategy to McCain / Palin but with much stronger candidates on the ticket.

In our view Obama's still in the driver's seat with respect to the 2012 election. Barring a serious economic setback, Americans are unlikely to want yet another major "change" in the White House so soon. Obama's kept his core constituency happy with only modest levels of alienation of those on the far left who naively felt Obama as President would act very consistently with Obama as young Chicago organizer. We're likely to see more liberal "progressive" politics from Obama in a second term, but it's clear that President Obama will continue to keep moderate democrats fairly happy while he continues to alienate the far left and right. It's a great political strategy and it won't change for the 2012 election.

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

History of the Democratic Party and the Birth Certificate


Over at Travel and History I've written a short "History of the Democratic Party", focusing mostly on presidents and briefly tracing the history of the democratic party from inception in the late 1700s to modern times with the election of our latest Democratic President, Barack Obama, who coincidentally just released a better copy of his birth certificate ... today.

Although the "birther"arguments have always been pretty dumb, it was also been odd that the Obama camp worked so hard to avoid releasing the "vault copy" or original certificate. My working hypothesis about that was that the original birth certificate probably was lost or defaced or contained something compromising which might have made greater trouble than simply stonewalling, but the release of this latest long form birth certificate official copy from Hawaii suggests that was wrong and there was nothing at all to hide. One would think the Obama election team would have waited until closer to the election to let the frothy nonsense continue, so perhaps they have decided this was eating into his popularity enough that waiting any longer was unwise.

In any case, it looks like the 2012 Presidential Election will now be pretty much in full swing, though as David Brooks suggested recently it's very hard to imagine anybody in the current field of candidates giving Obama much of a run. I think Romney is the most likely nominee and arguably has a shot, but a lot can happen in the coming months as Republicans work the dreary Iowa farms and fields to line up early support, effectively copying the brilliant strategy of the Obama 2008 early campaign juggernaut.




Monday, January 03, 2011

The new political landscape. Stay Tuned.

As the Republicans take control of congress and the Tea Party starts to weild real power, the American Political landscape will again change. Too many analysts seem confused by what is wrongly perceived as a shift in the way people view big government. Obama's election was not an endorsement of big government - rather it reflected the powerful desire on the part of the public for new people and new approaches. In some ways the electorate is "experimenting" with politicians - bringing in new ones until they find something they like. Dissatisfaction with GW Bush and the feeling that neither Hilary Clinton nor John McCain would bring new and inspired innovation and leadership largely account for Obama's win. Those factors were probably more important than his own policies.

In many ways the "seesaw" Democracy we have is inefficient, but it does serve to change the game. Unfortunately we don't see this in the congress and Senate. Founders such as Franklin and Jefferson generally advised in favor of term limits but these rules were only constitutionalized for the office of the Presidency.

What's in store? If events immediately preceding the elections are any indication, Obama may continue to find ways to cooperate and compromise to avoid the gridlock many are predicting. Was Obama to some extent handicapped by Democrats control of the congress which forced him to support fiscally questionable policy making? Now in power, will Tea Party folks continue to fight for the strident conservative spending principles of their campaign?

Stay ... Tuned ... America

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Palin 2012 Presidential Bid is a big Win for Obama

As Sarah Palin Bid for the presidency becomes more and more certain, the Obama camp should be happy to see Republicans reeling under the pressures that will come from splitting a ticket between more mainstream candidates and Palin, the darling of the "Tea Party" conservatives who have injected a lot of passion but not a not of reason into the upcoming debates over the future of US policy.

Early prediction: Look for Palin to narrowly loose to the mainstream candidate - our early money is on Romney, and look for that fight to take the wind out of the Republican sails, leading to a fairly easy Obama win in 2012.

UK Guardian: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jul/12/sarah-palin-election-war-chest

Saturday, March 06, 2010

Obama's Irony

As President Obama's focus moves from his first year to attempted completion of his major campaign initiatives even a casual observer of the American political landscape should notice something important about the USA:

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Although the ideological zealots on both sides of Obama would not agree, it's pretty clear to an objective observer that Obama's policies are very much an extension of the past - with some notable but not overwhelming changes. We have the same secretary of defense and the same or similar generals in charge of the two major wars we are prosecuting against the bad guys. We have continued (and increased) massive government spending in almost all sectors, most notably the ones that are unsustainable at current spending levels - Defense and Entitlements, neither of which calls for anything like we currently spend.

Although it's too complex to analyze yet, I think much of the bailout and "return to prosperity" has been purchased with the dollars of our children and future generations of Americans and to a lesser extent our global neighbors who continue to lend us money even as our spending becomes unsustainable. Much like the conditions that led to the 2008 global financial crisis, we have a situation where everybody is counting on unreasonable projections of future prosperity and spending accordingly. Forget Wall Street CEOs, whose total take was the tiniest fraction of the total losses. The problem was largely ..... please raise your hand if you live in the developing world .... our own. Many spent like drunken sailors with home equity and mortgage borrowings that evaporated along with the values of the securities that backed them. I think many still completely fail to understand that the total values that have since diminished are measured in tens of trillions. Greedy CEOs played a significant role, but I'd guess far less than that played by greedy ... middle class folks who borrowed beyond their means and could not repay when their $300,000 house value became $150,000.

It is likely to become increasingly clear to the big lender (China) that the big spender (if you live in America, raise your hand please) are going to be printing money to repay this debt. Given than the RMB is already undervalued with respect to the dollar, there is a potentially serious imbalance even now between the China / USA currency situation.

As Joseph Stiglitz the Nobel laureate Economist noted recently on Charlie Rose (I paraphrase) we are not yet out of the economic woodshed by any means and we could see another recession.

I don't sound like a fan of Obama but in fact I like him a lot - he inherited these problems and has made a modest level of progress in reaching better outcomes from horrible situations. I also think he understands the problems with ongoing massive spending and will be able to work with the more balanced and anti-spending congress that we'll see after the 2010 elections, which are likely to be something of a bloodbath for the Democrats who in their infinite enthusiasm for Government forgot that most people wanted a change in Government, not MORE of it.

When the lackluster-but-super-expensive health care plan finally passes I think it'll be another nail in the coffin of the notion that government tends to solve more problems than it creates. Unfortunately we have no viable third party in the wings here in the USA that would uphold what in fact many Americans believe - we need an innovative, efficient, smaller, more compassionate government that jumps in, solves problems, and goes away.

I'm not holding my breath, but I will hope that Obama - one of the sharpest folks ever in the office - can learn from the Democrat's mistakes that there is still time for him to adopt an innovative, conservative fiscal policy that really could usher in a new era of American prosperity.



Thursday, June 04, 2009

Obama's Cairo Speech Transcript. June 2009

THE WHITE HOUSE
Office of the Press Secretary
(Cairo, Egypt)
________________________________________________________________________
REMARKS BY THE PRESIDENT
ON A NEW BEGINNING
Cairo University
Cairo, Egypt
June 4, 2009
1:10 P.M. (Local)
PRESIDENT OBAMA: Thank you very much. Good afternoon. I am honored
to be in the timeless city of Cairo, and to be hosted by two remarkable institutions. For
over a thousand years, Al-Azhar has stood as a beacon of Islamic learning; and for over a
century, Cairo University has been a source of Egypt's advancement. And together, you
represent the harmony between tradition and progress. I'm grateful for your hospitality,
and the hospitality of the people of Egypt. And I'm also proud to carry with me the
goodwill of the American people, and a greeting of peace from Muslim communities in
my country: Assalaamu alaykum. (Applause.)
We meet at a time of great tension between the United States and Muslims around the
world -- tension rooted in historical forces that go beyond any current policy debate. The
relationship between Islam and the West includes centuries of coexistence and
cooperation, but also conflict and religious wars. More recently, tension has been fed by
colonialism that denied rights and opportunities to many Muslims, and a Cold War in
which Muslim-majority countries were too often treated as proxies without regard to their
own aspirations. Moreover, the sweeping change brought by modernity and globalization
led many Muslims to view the West as hostile to the traditions of Islam.
Violent extremists have exploited these tensions in a small but potent minority of
Muslims. The attacks of September 11, 2001 and the continued efforts of these
extremists to engage in violence against civilians has led some in my country to view
Islam as inevitably hostile not only to America and Western countries, but also to human
rights. All this has bred more fear and more mistrust.
So long as our relationship is defined by our differences, we will empower those who
sow hatred rather than peace, those who promote conflict rather than the cooperation that
can help all of our people achieve justice and prosperity. And this cycle of suspicion and
discord must end.
I've come here to Cairo to seek a new beginning between the United States and Muslims
around the world, one based on mutual interest and mutual respect, and one based upon
the truth that America and Islam are not exclusive and need not be in competition.
Instead, they overlap, and share common principles -- principles of justice and progress;
tolerance and the dignity of all human beings.
I do so recognizing that change cannot happen overnight. I know there's been a lot of
publicity about this speech, but no single speech can eradicate years of mistrust, nor can I
answer in the time that I have this afternoon all the complex questions that brought us to
this point. But I am convinced that in order to move forward, we must say openly to each
other the things we hold in our hearts and that too often are said only behind closed
doors. There must be a sustained effort to listen to each other; to learn from each other;
to respect one another; and to seek common ground. As the Holy Koran tells us, "Be
conscious of God and speak always the truth." (Applause.) That is what I will try to do
today -- to speak the truth as best I can, humbled by the task before us, and firm in my
belief that the interests we share as human beings are far more powerful than the forces
that drive us apart.
Now part of this conviction is rooted in my own experience. I'm a Christian, but my
father came from a Kenyan family that includes generations of Muslims. As a boy, I
spent several years in Indonesia and heard the call of the azaan at the break of dawn and
at the fall of dusk. As a young man, I worked in Chicago communities where many
found dignity and peace in their Muslim faith.
As a student of history, I also know civilization's debt to Islam. It was Islam -- at places
like Al-Azhar -- that carried the light of learning through so many centuries, paving the
way for Europe's Renaissance and Enlightenment. It was innovation in Muslim
communities -- (applause) -- it was innovation in Muslim communities that developed the
order of algebra; our magnetic compass and tools of navigation; our mastery of pens and
printing; our understanding of how disease spreads and how it can be healed. Islamic
culture has given us majestic arches and soaring spires; timeless poetry and cherished
music; elegant calligraphy and places of peaceful contemplation. And throughout
history, Islam has demonstrated through words and deeds the possibilities of religious
tolerance and racial equality. (Applause.)
I also know that Islam has always been a part of America's story. The first nation to
recognize my country was Morocco. In signing the Treaty of Tripoli in 1796, our second
President, John Adams, wrote, "The United States has in itself no character of enmity
against the laws, religion or tranquility of Muslims." And since our founding, American
Muslims have enriched the United States. They have fought in our wars, they have
served in our government, they have stood for civil rights, they have started businesses,
they have taught at our universities, they've excelled in our sports arenas, they've won
Nobel Prizes, built our tallest building, and lit the Olympic Torch. And when the first
Muslim American was recently elected to Congress, he took the oath to defend our
Constitution using the same Holy Koran that one of our Founding Fathers -- Thomas
Jefferson -- kept in his personal library. (Applause.)
So I have known Islam on three continents before coming to the region where it was first
revealed. That experience guides my conviction that partnership between America and
Islam must be based on what Islam is, not what it isn't. And I consider it part of my
responsibility as President of the United States to fight against negative stereotypes of
Islam wherever they appear. (Applause.)
But that same principle must apply to Muslim perceptions of America. (Applause.) Just
as Muslims do not fit a crude stereotype, America is not the crude stereotype of a selfinterested
empire. The United States has been one of the greatest sources of progress that
the world has ever known. We were born out of revolution against an empire. We were
founded upon the ideal that all are created equal, and we have shed blood and struggled
for centuries to give meaning to those words -- within our borders, and around the world.
We are shaped by every culture, drawn from every end of the Earth, and dedicated to a
simple concept: E pluribus unum -- "Out of many, one."
Now, much has been made of the fact that an African American with the name Barack
Hussein Obama could be elected President. (Applause.) But my personal story is not so
unique. The dream of opportunity for all people has not come true for everyone in
America, but its promise exists for all who come to our shores -- and that includes nearly
7 million American Muslims in our country today who, by the way, enjoy incomes and
educational levels that are higher than the American average. (Applause.)
Moreover, freedom in America is indivisible from the freedom to practice one's religion.
That is why there is a mosque in every state in our union, and over 1,200 mosques within
our borders. That's why the United States government has gone to court to protect the
right of women and girls to wear the hijab and to punish those who would deny it.
(Applause.)
So let there be no doubt: Islam is a part of America. And I believe that America holds
within her the truth that regardless of race, religion, or station in life, all of us share
common aspirations -- to live in peace and security; to get an education and to work with
dignity; to love our families, our communities, and our God. These things we share.
This is the hope of all humanity.
Of course, recognizing our common humanity is only the beginning of our task. Words
alone cannot meet the needs of our people. These needs will be met only if we act boldly
in the years ahead; and if we understand that the challenges we face are shared, and our
failure to meet them will hurt us all.
For we have learned from recent experience that when a financial system weakens in one
country, prosperity is hurt everywhere. When a new flu infects one human being, all are
at risk. When one nation pursues a nuclear weapon, the risk of nuclear attack rises for all
nations. When violent extremists operate in one stretch of mountains, people are
endangered across an ocean. When innocents in Bosnia and Darfur are slaughtered, that
is a stain on our collective conscience. (Applause.) That is what it means to share this
world in the 21st century. That is the responsibility we have to one another as human
beings.
And this is a difficult responsibility to embrace. For human history has often been a
record of nations and tribes -- and, yes, religions -- subjugating one another in pursuit of
their own interests. Yet in this new age, such attitudes are self-defeating. Given our
interdependence, any world order that elevates one nation or group of people over
another will inevitably fail. So whatever we think of the past, we must not be prisoners
to it. Our problems must be dealt with through partnership; our progress must be shared.
(Applause.)
Now, that does not mean we should ignore sources of tension. Indeed, it suggests the
opposite: We must face these tensions squarely. And so in that spirit, let me speak as
clearly and as plainly as I can about some specific issues that I believe we must finally
confront together.
The first issue that we have to confront is violent extremism in all of its forms.
In Ankara, I made clear that America is not -- and never will be -- at war with Islam.
(Applause.) We will, however, relentlessly confront violent extremists who pose a grave
threat to our security -- because we reject the same thing that people of all faiths reject:
the killing of innocent men, women, and children. And it is my first duty as President to
protect the American people.
The situation in Afghanistan demonstrates America's goals, and our need to work
together. Over seven years ago, the United States pursued al Qaeda and the Taliban with
broad international support. We did not go by choice; we went because of necessity. I'm
aware that there's still some who would question or even justify the events of 9/11. But
let us be clear: Al Qaeda killed nearly 3,000 people on that day. The victims were
innocent men, women and children from America and many other nations who had done
nothing to harm anybody. And yet al Qaeda chose to ruthlessly murder these people,
claimed credit for the attack, and even now states their determination to kill on a massive
scale. They have affiliates in many countries and are trying to expand their reach. These
are not opinions to be debated; these are facts to be dealt with.
Now, make no mistake: We do not want to keep our troops in Afghanistan. We see no
military -- we seek no military bases there. It is agonizing for America to lose our young
men and women. It is costly and politically difficult to continue this conflict. We would
gladly bring every single one of our troops home if we could be confident that there were
not violent extremists in Afghanistan and now Pakistan determined to kill as many
Americans as they possibly can. But that is not yet the case.
And that's why we're partnering with a coalition of 46 countries. And despite the costs
involved, America's commitment will not weaken. Indeed, none of us should tolerate
these extremists. They have killed in many countries. They have killed people of
different faiths -- but more than any other, they have killed Muslims. Their actions are
irreconcilable with the rights of human beings, the progress of nations, and with Islam.
The Holy Koran teaches that whoever kills an innocent is as -- it is as if he has killed all
mankind. (Applause.) And the Holy Koran also says whoever saves a person, it is as if
he has saved all mankind. (Applause.) The enduring faith of over a billion people is so
much bigger than the narrow hatred of a few. Islam is not part of the problem in
combating violent extremism -- it is an important part of promoting peace.
Now, we also know that military power alone is not going to solve the problems in
Afghanistan and Pakistan. That's why we plan to invest $1.5 billion each year over the
next five years to partner with Pakistanis to build schools and hospitals, roads and
businesses, and hundreds of millions to help those who've been displaced. That's why we
are providing more than $2.8 billion to help Afghans develop their economy and deliver
services that people depend on.
Let me also address the issue of Iraq. Unlike Afghanistan, Iraq was a war of choice that
provoked strong differences in my country and around the world. Although I believe that
the Iraqi people are ultimately better off without the tyranny of Saddam Hussein, I also
believe that events in Iraq have reminded America of the need to use diplomacy and build
international consensus to resolve our problems whenever possible. (Applause.) Indeed,
we can recall the words of Thomas Jefferson, who said: "I hope that our wisdom will
grow with our power, and teach us that the less we use our power the greater it will be."
Today, America has a dual responsibility: to help Iraq forge a better future -- and to
leave Iraq to Iraqis. And I have made it clear to the Iraqi people -- (applause) -- I have
made it clear to the Iraqi people that we pursue no bases, and no claim on their territory
or resources. Iraq's sovereignty is its own. And that's why I ordered the removal of our
combat brigades by next August. That is why we will honor our agreement with Iraq's
democratically elected government to remove combat troops from Iraqi cities by July,
and to remove all of our troops from Iraq by 2012. (Applause.) We will help Iraq train
its security forces and develop its economy. But we will support a secure and united Iraq
as a partner, and never as a patron.
And finally, just as America can never tolerate violence by extremists, we must never
alter or forget our principles. Nine-eleven was an enormous trauma to our country. The
fear and anger that it provoked was understandable, but in some cases, it led us to act
contrary to our traditions and our ideals. We are taking concrete actions to change
course. I have unequivocally prohibited the use of torture by the United States, and I
have ordered the prison at Guantanamo Bay closed by early next year. (Applause.)
So America will defend itself, respectful of the sovereignty of nations and the rule of law.
And we will do so in partnership with Muslim communities which are also threatened.
The sooner the extremists are isolated and unwelcome in Muslim communities, the
sooner we will all be safer.
The second major source of tension that we need to discuss is the situation between
Israelis, Palestinians and the Arab world.
America's strong bonds with Israel are well known. This bond is unbreakable. It is based
upon cultural and historical ties, and the recognition that the aspiration for a Jewish
homeland is rooted in a tragic history that cannot be denied.
Around the world, the Jewish people were persecuted for centuries, and anti-Semitism in
Europe culminated in an unprecedented Holocaust. Tomorrow, I will visit Buchenwald,
which was part of a network of camps where Jews were enslaved, tortured, shot and
gassed to death by the Third Reich. Six million Jews were killed -- more than the entire
Jewish population of Israel today. Denying that fact is baseless, it is ignorant, and it is
hateful. Threatening Israel with destruction -- or repeating vile stereotypes about Jews --
is deeply wrong, and only serves to evoke in the minds of Israelis this most painful of
memories while preventing the peace that the people of this region deserve.
On the other hand, it is also undeniable that the Palestinian people -- Muslims and
Christians -- have suffered in pursuit of a homeland. For more than 60 years they've
endured the pain of dislocation. Many wait in refugee camps in the West Bank, Gaza,
and neighboring lands for a life of peace and security that they have never been able to
lead. They endure the daily humiliations -- large and small -- that come with occupation.
So let there be no doubt: The situation for the Palestinian people is intolerable. And
America will not turn our backs on the legitimate Palestinian aspiration for dignity,
opportunity, and a state of their own. (Applause.)
For decades then, there has been a stalemate: two peoples with legitimate aspirations,
each with a painful history that makes compromise elusive. It's easy to point fingers --
for Palestinians to point to the displacement brought about by Israel's founding, and for
Israelis to point to the constant hostility and attacks throughout its history from within its
borders as well as beyond. But if we see this conflict only from one side or the other,
then we will be blind to the truth: The only resolution is for the aspirations of both sides
to be met through two states, where Israelis and Palestinians each live in peace and
security. (Applause.)
That is in Israel's interest, Palestine's interest, America's interest, and the world's interest.
And that is why I intend to personally pursue this outcome with all the patience and
dedication that the task requires. (Applause.) The obligations -- the obligations that the
parties have agreed to under the road map are clear. For peace to come, it is time for
them -- and all of us -- to live up to our responsibilities.
Palestinians must abandon violence. Resistance through violence and killing is wrong
and it does not succeed. For centuries, black people in America suffered the lash of the
whip as slaves and the humiliation of segregation. But it was not violence that won full
and equal rights. It was a peaceful and determined insistence upon the ideals at the center
of America's founding. This same story can be told by people from South Africa to
South Asia; from Eastern Europe to Indonesia. It's a story with a simple truth: that
violence is a dead end. It is a sign neither of courage nor power to shoot rockets at
sleeping children, or to blow up old women on a bus. That's not how moral authority is
claimed; that's how it is surrendered.
Now is the time for Palestinians to focus on what they can build. The Palestinian
Authority must develop its capacity to govern, with institutions that serve the needs of its
people. Hamas does have support among some Palestinians, but they also have to
recognize they have responsibilities. To play a role in fulfilling Palestinian aspirations, to
unify the Palestinian people, Hamas must put an end to violence, recognize past
agreements, recognize Israel's right to exist.
At the same time, Israelis must acknowledge that just as Israel's right to exist cannot be
denied, neither can Palestine's. The United States does not accept the legitimacy of
continued Israeli settlements. (Applause.) This construction violates previous
agreements and undermines efforts to achieve peace. It is time for these settlements to
stop. (Applause.)
And Israel must also live up to its obligation to ensure that Palestinians can live and work
and develop their society. Just as it devastates Palestinian families, the continuing
humanitarian crisis in Gaza does not serve Israel's security; neither does the continuing
lack of opportunity in the West Bank. Progress in the daily lives of the Palestinian people
must be a critical part of a road to peace, and Israel must take concrete steps to enable
such progress.
And finally, the Arab states must recognize that the Arab Peace Initiative was an
important beginning, but not the end of their responsibilities. The Arab-Israeli conflict
should no longer be used to distract the people of Arab nations from other problems.
Instead, it must be a cause for action to help the Palestinian people develop the
institutions that will sustain their state, to recognize Israel's legitimacy, and to choose
progress over a self-defeating focus on the past.
America will align our policies with those who pursue peace, and we will say in public
what we say in private to Israelis and Palestinians and Arabs. (Applause.) We cannot
impose peace. But privately, many Muslims recognize that Israel will not go away.
Likewise, many Israelis recognize the need for a Palestinian state. It is time for us to act
on what everyone knows to be true.
Too many tears have been shed. Too much blood has been shed. All of us have a
responsibility to work for the day when the mothers of Israelis and Palestinians can see
their children grow up without fear; when the Holy Land of the three great faiths is the
place of peace that God intended it to be; when Jerusalem is a secure and lasting home
for Jews and Christians and Muslims, and a place for all of the children of Abraham to
mingle peacefully together as in the story of Isra -- (applause) -- as in the story of Isra,
when Moses, Jesus, and Mohammed, peace be upon them, joined in prayer. (Applause.)
The third source of tension is our shared interest in the rights and responsibilities of
nations on nuclear weapons.
This issue has been a source of tension between the United States and the Islamic
Republic of Iran. For many years, Iran has defined itself in part by its opposition to my
country, and there is in fact a tumultuous history between us. In the middle of the Cold
War, the United States played a role in the overthrow of a democratically elected Iranian
government. Since the Islamic Revolution, Iran has played a role in acts of hostagetaking
and violence against U.S. troops and civilians. This history is well known. Rather
than remain trapped in the past, I've made it clear to Iran's leaders and people that my
country is prepared to move forward. The question now is not what Iran is against, but
rather what future it wants to build.
I recognize it will be hard to overcome decades of mistrust, but we will proceed with
courage, rectitude, and resolve. There will be many issues to discuss between our two
countries, and we are willing to move forward without preconditions on the basis of
mutual respect. But it is clear to all concerned that when it comes to nuclear weapons,
we have reached a decisive point. This is not simply about America's interests. It's about
preventing a nuclear arms race in the Middle East that could lead this region and the
world down a hugely dangerous path.
I understand those who protest that some countries have weapons that others do not. No
single nation should pick and choose which nation holds nuclear weapons. And that's
why I strongly reaffirmed America's commitment to seek a world in which no nations
hold nuclear weapons. (Applause.) And any nation -- including Iran -- should have the
right to access peaceful nuclear power if it complies with its responsibilities under the
nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. That commitment is at the core of the treaty, and it
must be kept for all who fully abide by it. And I'm hopeful that all countries in the region
can share in this goal.
The fourth issue that I will address is democracy. (Applause.)
I know -- I know there has been controversy about the promotion of democracy in recent
years, and much of this controversy is connected to the war in Iraq. So let me be clear:
No system of government can or should be imposed by one nation by any other.
That does not lessen my commitment, however, to governments that reflect the will of the
people. Each nation gives life to this principle in its own way, grounded in the traditions
of its own people. America does not presume to know what is best for everyone, just as
we would not presume to pick the outcome of a peaceful election. But I do have an
unyielding belief that all people yearn for certain things: the ability to speak your mind
and have a say in how you are governed; confidence in the rule of law and the equal
administration of justice; government that is transparent and doesn't steal from the
people; the freedom to live as you choose. These are not just American ideas; they are
human rights. And that is why we will support them everywhere. (Applause.)
Now, there is no straight line to realize this promise. But this much is clear:
Governments that protect these rights are ultimately more stable, successful and secure.
Suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away. America respects the right of
all peaceful and law-abiding voices to be heard around the world, even if we disagree
with them. And we will welcome all elected, peaceful governments -- provided they
govern with respect for all their people.
This last point is important because there are some who advocate for democracy only
when they're out of power; once in power, they are ruthless in suppressing the rights of
others. (Applause.) So no matter where it takes hold, government of the people and by
the people sets a single standard for all who would hold power: You must maintain your
power through consent, not coercion; you must respect the rights of minorities, and
participate with a spirit of tolerance and compromise; you must place the interests of your
people and the legitimate workings of the political process above your party. Without
these ingredients, elections alone do not make true democracy.
AUDIENCE MEMBER: Barack Obama, we love you!
PRESIDENT OBAMA: Thank you. (Applause.) The fifth issue that we must address
together is religious freedom.
Islam has a proud tradition of tolerance. We see it in the history of Andalusia and
Cordoba during the Inquisition. I saw it firsthand as a child in Indonesia, where devout
Christians worshiped freely in an overwhelmingly Muslim country. That is the spirit we
need today. People in every country should be free to choose and live their faith based
upon the persuasion of the mind and the heart and the soul. This tolerance is essential for
religion to thrive, but it's being challenged in many different ways.
Among some Muslims, there's a disturbing tendency to measure one's own faith by the
rejection of somebody else's faith. The richness of religious diversity must be upheld --
whether it is for Maronites in Lebanon or the Copts in Egypt. (Applause.) And if we are
being honest, fault lines must be closed among Muslims, as well, as the divisions
between Sunni and Shia have led to tragic violence, particularly in Iraq.
Freedom of religion is central to the ability of peoples to live together. We must always
examine the ways in which we protect it. For instance, in the United States, rules on
charitable giving have made it harder for Muslims to fulfill their religious obligation.
That's why I'm committed to working with American Muslims to ensure that they can
fulfill zakat.
Likewise, it is important for Western countries to avoid impeding Muslim citizens from
practicing religion as they see fit -- for instance, by dictating what clothes a Muslim
woman should wear. We can't disguise hostility towards any religion behind the pretence
of liberalism.
In fact, faith should bring us together. And that's why we're forging service projects in
America to bring together Christians, Muslims, and Jews. That's why we welcome
efforts like Saudi Arabian King Abdullah's interfaith dialogue and Turkey's leadership in
the Alliance of Civilizations. Around the world, we can turn dialogue into interfaith
service, so bridges between peoples lead to action -- whether it is combating malaria in
Africa, or providing relief after a natural disaster.
The sixth issue -- the sixth issue that I want to address is women's rights. (Applause.) I
know –- I know -- and you can tell from this audience, that there is a healthy debate about
this issue. I reject the view of some in the West that a woman who chooses to cover her
hair is somehow less equal, but I do believe that a woman who is denied an education is
denied equality. (Applause.) And it is no coincidence that countries where women are
well educated are far more likely to be prosperous.
Now, let me be clear: Issues of women's equality are by no means simply an issue for
Islam. In Turkey, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, we've seen Muslim-majority
countries elect a woman to lead. Meanwhile, the struggle for women's equality continues
in many aspects of American life, and in countries around the world.
I am convinced that our daughters can contribute just as much to society as our sons.
(Applause.) Our common prosperity will be advanced by allowing all humanity -- men
and women -- to reach their full potential. I do not believe that women must make the
same choices as men in order to be equal, and I respect those women who choose to live
their lives in traditional roles. But it should be their choice. And that is why the United
States will partner with any Muslim-majority country to support expanded literacy for
girls, and to help young women pursue employment through micro-financing that helps
people live their dreams. (Applause.)
Finally, I want to discuss economic development and opportunity.
I know that for many, the face of globalization is contradictory. The Internet and
television can bring knowledge and information, but also offensive sexuality and
mindless violence into the home. Trade can bring new wealth and opportunities, but also
huge disruptions and change in communities. In all nations -- including America -- this
change can bring fear. Fear that because of modernity we lose control over our economic
choices, our politics, and most importantly our identities -- those things we most cherish
about our communities, our families, our traditions, and our faith.
But I also know that human progress cannot be denied. There need not be contradictions
between development and tradition. Countries like Japan and South Korea grew their
economies enormously while maintaining distinct cultures. The same is true for the
astonishing progress within Muslim-majority countries from Kuala Lumpur to Dubai. In
ancient times and in our times, Muslim communities have been at the forefront of
innovation and education.
And this is important because no development strategy can be based only upon what
comes out of the ground, nor can it be sustained while young people are out of work.
Many Gulf states have enjoyed great wealth as a consequence of oil, and some are
beginning to focus it on broader development. But all of us must recognize that
education and innovation will be the currency of the 21st century -- (applause) -- and in
too many Muslim communities, there remains underinvestment in these areas. I'm
emphasizing such investment within my own country. And while America in the past has
focused on oil and gas when it comes to this part of the world, we now seek a broader
engagement.
On education, we will expand exchange programs, and increase scholarships, like the one
that brought my father to America. (Applause.) At the same time, we will encourage
more Americans to study in Muslim communities. And we will match promising Muslim
students with internships in America; invest in online learning for teachers and children
around the world; and create a new online network, so a young person in Kansas can
communicate instantly with a young person in Cairo.
On economic development, we will create a new corps of business volunteers to partner
with counterparts in Muslim-majority countries. And I will host a Summit on
Entrepreneurship this year to identify how we can deepen ties between business leaders,
foundations and social entrepreneurs in the United States and Muslim communities
around the world.
On science and technology, we will launch a new fund to support technological
development in Muslim-majority countries, and to help transfer ideas to the marketplace
so they can create more jobs. We'll open centers of scientific excellence in Africa, the
Middle East and Southeast Asia, and appoint new science envoys to collaborate on
programs that develop new sources of energy, create green jobs, digitize records, clean
water, grow new crops. Today I'm announcing a new global effort with the Organization
of the Islamic Conference to eradicate polio. And we will also expand partnerships with
Muslim communities to promote child and maternal health.
All these things must be done in partnership. Americans are ready to join with citizens
and governments; community organizations, religious leaders, and businesses in Muslim
communities around the world to help our people pursue a better life.
The issues that I have described will not be easy to address. But we have a responsibility
to join together on behalf of the world that we seek -- a world where extremists no longer
threaten our people, and American troops have come home; a world where Israelis and
Palestinians are each secure in a state of their own, and nuclear energy is used for
peaceful purposes; a world where governments serve their citizens, and the rights of all
God's children are respected. Those are mutual interests. That is the world we seek. But
we can only achieve it together.
I know there are many -- Muslim and non-Muslim -- who question whether we can forge
this new beginning. Some are eager to stoke the flames of division, and to stand in the
way of progress. Some suggest that it isn't worth the effort -- that we are fated to
disagree, and civilizations are doomed to clash. Many more are simply skeptical that real
change can occur. There's so much fear, so much mistrust that has built up over the
years. But if we choose to be bound by the past, we will never move forward. And I
want to particularly say this to young people of every faith, in every country -- you, more
than anyone, have the ability to reimagine the world, to remake this world.
All of us share this world for but a brief moment in time. The question is whether we
spend that time focused on what pushes us apart, or whether we commit ourselves to an
effort -- a sustained effort -- to find common ground, to focus on the future we seek for
our children, and to respect the dignity of all human beings.
It's easier to start wars than to end them. It's easier to blame others than to look inward.
It's easier to see what is different about someone than to find the things we share. But we
should choose the right path, not just the easy path. There's one rule that lies at the heart
of every religion -- that we do unto others as we would have them do unto us.
(Applause.) This truth transcends nations and peoples -- a belief that isn't new; that isn't
black or white or brown; that isn't Christian or Muslim or Jew. It's a belief that pulsed in
the cradle of civilization, and that still beats in the hearts of billions around the world. It's
a faith in other people, and it's what brought me here today.
We have the power to make the world we seek, but only if we have the courage to make a
new beginning, keeping in mind what has been written.
The Holy Koran tells us: "O mankind! We have created you male and a female; and we
have made you into nations and tribes so that you may know one another."
The Talmud tells us: "The whole of the Torah is for the purpose of promoting peace."
The Holy Bible tells us: "Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall be called sons of
God." (Applause.)
The people of the world can live together in peace. We know that is God's vision. Now
that must be our work here on Earth.
Thank you. And may God's peace be upon you. Thank you very much. Thank you.
(Applause.)