Tuesday, January 01, 2008

Obama and Huckabee lead in large DesMoines Register Poll

The key newspaper in the upcoming Iowa race is the DesMoines Register. On CSPAN today Pollster J. Anne Selzer is discussing their latest poll, the last major one before the caucuses:


Frustratingly in terms of predicting outcomes, their result is dramatically different from Zogby for the Democrats. Register shows Obama leading in a big way, Zogby shows Clinton with the lead. RealClearPolitics averaging process shows a very narrow Clinton lead.

On the Republican side they agree with Zogby and show a Huckabee lead. RealClearPolitics averages now show Huckabee with a sliver of a lead: 0.4% over Romney.

The Clinton and Edwards campaigns suggested the Register's methodology was flawed, especially in terms of projected caucus participation. Selzer thinks a lot of independents will be involved - many more than historically. She also notes that they were able to contact some potential voters by cell phone, most notable college students who will be back in time for caucus but are not in Iowa now - which she said was a flaw in some other polls.

So, how does this affect our Predictions? No change. Romney and Clinton will win Iowa.

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