Thursday, September 04, 2008

McCain Obama in the polls

The best place to follow the Presidential polls is where their RCP running average of major polls is arguably the best indication of where things are headed in the Presidential Election this year.

Today's running average shows Obama with a lead in all but the tied CBS News results, an average lead of 4.4% over McCain. These results do NOT reflect the post Palin speech results which promise to be interesting. Voters are now being force fed about as much information about Sara Palin as for any candidate in history, and it appears the McCain campaign will seek to control her interviews in a structured way - at least based on the recent cancelled interview after CNN's Campbell Brown challenged McCain's PR guy to provide examples of Palin's relevant executive experience. When he failed to do so she seemed exasperated and later the campaign "punished" CNN by cancelling a Larry King interview with Palin. I'm guessing the strategy will be to have Palin come out swinging in controlled environments like speeches and FOX news interviews but avoid direct confrontations with what McCain will increasingly brand as "liberal sympathizers" in the media. I continue to think this strategy will backfire as mainstream Americans will come to think that Palin's very strident conservatism is not in line with the average American's more moderate views on government, abortion, gun control, and more.

CNN's Cafferty today showed Iowa polling results with Obama in huge lead, arguing that this indicates how popular Obama is with white voters, though he's foolishly failing to note that Obama spent an *enormous* amount of time in the Iowa Caucus process. That state is not representative of how most Americans will view him, and tells us little about how the battle for middle class rural voters will shake out in the coming election.

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