Obama to win in electoral landslide

It's now very clear that Barack Obama will win the US Presidency, probably in an electoral landslide of approximately 353 electoral votes for Obama & Biden to 185 electoral votes for McCain & Palin. Thankfully we won't have the close outcome that means vote counting problems, purging strategies, and lawsuits determine the outcome rather than the intention of voters.

Obama's election is very likely even in the event of a disaster of unprecedented proportions because most now feel that Obama's leadership and intelligence make him the right choice to guide the country forward, because many people have already voted, and because Obama has by far the better "get out the vote" effort. Early voting and better polling makes in increasingly unlikely that we will see any big surprises on Tuesday, as we already have a very good idea about how close to 20% of the electorate has voted and those votes are lining up with the broad polling. All these signs point to Obama as the next president.

President Picker Predicts:
353 electoral votes for Obama & Biden
185 electoral votes for McCain & Palin

Swiftboating backlash?

Although historically negative advertising has been very effective in many elections, I think the upcoming Obama and McCain campaigns have the potential to change the way elections are run. Not so much because they are virtuous - though I think both candidates are good guys - but because voters may actually have become sophisticated enough to reward a higher road.

This may be too optimistic but clearly Obama's campaign against Clinton appeared to benefit from taking a higher road. When Clinton attacked in debates and in advertising, Obama usually paried rather than fought back. I think many Americans found this very appealing. Clinton supporters feel that she was treated unfairly by press and by the Obama campaign but I think on balance both the Democratic and Republican primaries were dignified and without nearly the amount of negative campaigning there could have been given the years of political and personal baggage from most of the candidates involved in the races.

In terms of Obama vs McCain I think Obama has a huge edge in the sense he can easily lable McCain a Washington insider as he talks about Obama vs McCain's "change" themes. On the other hand McCain cannot label the young and politically inexperienced Obama much except as being young and inexperienced - arguably very desirable traits to many Americans in the current election as long as the candidate is smart and appealing as Obama certainly appears to be to most.

McCain's Daughter: Blogger

Kudos to John McCain's daughter who is blogging her experiences along the campaign trail and elsewhere. I was surprised that Mitt Romney's sons did not get more attention for their efforts blogging, but I think many bloggers think this are publicity stunts more than sincere expressions from key insiders in these campaigns. There is a bit of the former I am sure, but fakes are easy to spot and I haven't seen any indications that these candidate kids are not writing most if not all of their own stuff.

Pennsylvania a last stop? No way.

As much as I enjoy all the commentary on CNN, FOX, and especially MSNBC, I don't think the "experts" are in touch with America enough to have *any clue* about what is likely to transpire.

For example many seem to think a Clinton / Obama ticket is not likely. If Clinton wins I think is it about 90% likely she'll pick Obama as running mate. It would be idiotic not to do this. Karl Rove proved in past elections that playing powerfully to your base was a good tactic in general elections, and Obama would give Clinton the chance to play both to her base and also to act more conservative than otherwise, scooping up support from the middle ground.

It is not as clear to me that Obama would choose Clinton for VP because she in many ways contradicts his theme of change from the past. Obama would probably pick Wesley Clark or another moderate with a strong military presence and background in an effort to move his campaign to the right enough to appeal more to moderates who will be uncomfortable with Obama's very liberal politics.

It's mini-Super-Tuesday - have you won yet?

With Texas and Ohio on the line John McCain may lock up his nomination today, and certainly is well on the way to the Republican Nomination. A recent BBQ at his house had McCain sizing up some potential running mates, though it's not at all clear who he'll choose. Although Huckabee may be appealing to the right wing of the party it's not clear McCain would gain a lot of votes with Huckabee because conservatives are either going to vote McCain or sit out this election. A more likely strategy than to go for conservatives is probably to shift to the center and try to play the "liberal" card against the Democrats, painting Obama or Clinton as far left. This strategy worked very well for Richard Nixon vs George McGovern and to a lesser extent in Bush v Kerry in 2004, where the Democrats were painted as "unpatriotic" despite the fact both had served in active military where the opponent had not.

McCain's non-scandalous scandal

The John McCain lobbyist scandal seems to be dying down in light of the New York Times' failure to produce anything other than rumors of the appearance of impropriety combined with McCain's sharp denial of any romantic involvement or betrayal of the public trust.

Frankly, I think the story's somewhat foolish original intention was not to accuse McCain of illegal or immoral activity, rather to suggest that even McCain is not immune to the lure of the huge gray areas in political ethics. These are challenges McCain has talked about times both in regard to his involvement in the Keating S&L scandal and challenges with our process in general.

McCain's case is interesting because I'd suggest it is pretty clear what happened, but media speculation and frenzy simply cannot handle middle ground very well:

McCain had a friendship with lobby girl which was flirtatious but probably not scandalous - I doubt they slept together and may never have had any romance, though I'm guessing he technically lied saying "no romantic involvement".

Like other Senators, McCain participated in our crappy lobby system in legal ways.

Vicki Iseman's influence over McCain him was a notch above the normal due to the flirtatious and/or romantic overtones, but she did not *directly* ask for favors and he did not *directly* offer them. McCain is a man of honor and it would have been totally out of character for him to act otherwise.

Isemant did get more attention than average, but nothing that would approach illegal preferential treatment or breach any reasonable ethical standards other than the one that suggests our current and past lobbying systems are poor ways to do the people's business.

Note that decisions and clients are on the record, so where is the record of corruption here?

Appearance of impropriety here? Sure, but that's not enough.

Campaign Blog? Romney Wins this race

Although (all?) the candidates have a blog presence, Romney's approach appears to be a clever combination of new media and old family values. Called "Five Brothers", this is a blog by the sons about the father. If there is anything new media loves it is "sincerity", and unless the brothers come across badly this is likely to be a much stronger social media approach than the canned sincerity of professionals managing the other blogs.

Is it too much to ask that the candidates themselves participate more actively online? We'll see more of that as the election continues, but I think all the candidates are missing an incredible opportunity to more fully immerse themselves into the online world. Edwards and Obama have profiles on Twitter but it's not clear who writes them which for me raises as many questions about the candidate as bonus points for jumping on the social media bandwagon.

Where's Ben Franklin when you need him? He would have loved the new media and probably would already have built more than a few new companies based on the efficiencies of the internet.