Wednesday, September 05, 2007

Presidential Polls

This site has a GREAT summary of many presidential polls for the 2008 election.

On the Democratic side it's pretty clear that Hilary Clinton will be the nominee. My take is that even with a minor scandal or major gaff Hilary would withstand anything Obama could throw her way, and he's shown himself to be inexperienced enough to scare away the core Democrats that are essential to a 2008 victory. Hilary could be derailed with a major scandal but it seems unlikely there are any big skeletons in the Clinton closet or we'd have seem them "outed" by now as the New Hampshire and Iowa primaries loom, perhaps within a few months.

The Republican field is still wide open in my opinion, though Mitt Romney would seem to be the likely winner of the Republican Primary. Giuliani is also a possibility but his record, quirky style, and personal baggage seem to me an overwhelming liability when competing against more mainstream Republican candidates. Thompson is more along the lines of the traditional Republican conservative but in this election that may actually be seen as a liability by moderate Republicans. Also, his young and beautiful wife, combined with recent sex scandals on the Republican side, could be a liability for a candidate who will have to play the "family values" card to be viable with the core Republican constituency, especially against Romney's squeaky cleanness. McCain has all but fallen victim to his combination of Iraq War support and several election gaffes. The media, once enamored with McCain's honest and freewheeling style, seems to have tired of him and this is almost a death sentence for a politician.

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