Exit Polls 2012, Ohio Exit Polling should give clues to the Romney v Obama 2012 Race

The US Presidential Election is here (as well as the US Senate, House, and thousands of local races) and we all would like to know the outcomes ... before the final tally.    Based on the best statistical analysis of polling through last week, Obama is the very likely winner of the presidential race.   Why?    Partly because Obama is winning in virtually all of the 'toss up" states where in some cases a small lead will translate into a very disproportionate number of votes.   Ohio, the key battleground, is leaning Obama and would give him 18 electoral votes. For Romney to pull off a victory he'll really need to "beat the odds" and win almost all the toss up states.    Obama, on the other hand, could lose more of the toss ups and still win the election.  

Based on Nate Silver's excellent statistical analysis from the New York Times, where he gives Obama a 91% chance of victory based on poll information, President Picker is predicting an Obama win today even before we see any exit poll information.    

What would have to happen for Romney to win?    Romney's hope is that the polls in battleground states have been biased in favor of Obama.   This seems unlikely but it is possible.   Conservatives may have been less likely to participate in the polls, methods may have included those who don't wind up voting, etc, etc.   However, contrary to many claims US polls, exit and otherwise, tend to be very accurate and a good predictor of election outcomes.   In 2000 for example, the exit polls stated that Gore won florida because ... he *would have won* Florida if the ballots in Palm Beach County had reflected voter intention.  These "butterfly ballots" led to confusion and many lost votes for Gore  (due to "overvoting" where people voted for both Gore and Buchanon for President and therefore the vote was NOT counted).    Exit polling was blamed in Florida when the real defect was the butterfly ballot of Palm Beach County   (designed and reviewed by Democrats, so unlikely to have been a conspiracy play to undercount Gore votes).

Today we'll be watching the toss up states - RealClearPolitics will have good coverage linked below.    Ohio is the key.   If Obama takes Ohio it's pretty much over.   However, if Romney takes Ohio it is likely to be a very long night, withe the prospect of another 2000 style election recount fiasco.

Toss Up (146)
CO (9)	FL (29)
IA (6)	MI (16)
NV (6)	NH (4)
NC (15)	OH (18)
PA (20)	VA (13)
WI (10)

Republicans Unite Around Mitt Romney

The Republican Convention in Tampa, Florida winds up soon as the party rallies around Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, Republican nominees for the US Presidency.

Ironically, the Republicans seem obsessed with convincing America that Mitt Romney is a really good guy. That won't be hard since Romney is one of the most hard working, friendly, and sincere folks you'll find in the political spectrum.   From a strategic point of view it seems to me they'd do better to focus on his political abilities.    Obama's got the clear edge both in polling and in the advantages inherent with incumbency, so one would think the strategists would be looking for harder hitting, more powerful talking points.

That said, personalizing Romney may be important to his campaign as Obama's also got the clear edge as an appealing personality.

... more soon as Romney is about to speak ...

Obama v. Romney in 2012 ?

As the Republican presidential primary contenders start to shake out from the field of many to a few, two names seem to stand out conspicuously: Donald Trump and Mitt Romney. Readers of President Picker will note that we thought Romney would win last election's Republican Primary, and we'll stick with that prediction for this one. McCain's nomination and predictably weak candidacy was a surprise to us though the outcome was not. Romney is a far more formidable opponent to Obama, and we'll see a close 2012 race if he's the nominee, a race that will reflect the increasing level of political polarization in the USA.

The other conspicuous Republican is Donald Trump, the bombastic star of real estate and TV. It's remarkable to see how well Trump's doing right now in polling, though most likely this simply reflects the growing frustration with America's arguably obsolete two party focus - a system that largely requires a tribal approach to thinking and politics rather than the flexible and compromising strategies that would serve us better.

The Four Buffoons of the Republican Apocalypse

It's hard to imagine the frustration many smart conservatives must be feeling as Rush Limbaugh, Sarah Palin, Sean Hannity, and Joe the Plumber rise to take the ideological helm of the Republican Party.

The prestigious Party of Lincoln has historically been a bastion of economic sophistication and the principles of the founders of our great American experiment. It has now dissembled into a motley band of knee-jerk economic and social dimwits spewing red baiting nonsense and preying on the new found extreme ideological gullibility of conventional Republicans.

Although I supported Obama for President, I've always shared many of the concerns of American conservatives about the economy, most importantly that massive government spending tends to go wrong and tends to lead to unintended, usually undesirable consequences.

More importantly I very much agree with a cornerstone idea of true conservatives (noting there are few real conservatives left in the USA). We're spending too much now and have been for decades. The founders vision has largely been undermined by both the Democratic and Republican bureaucracy. The founders feared this sort of bureaucratic class would emerge without more citizen involvement and volunteerism than we have.

Ironically the wildly successful American experiment, grounded in the ideas of personal liberty, free speech, and entrepreneurialism created so much wealth that an extremely powerful bureaucratic class developed both in government and especially in the military where we spend more than every other nation combined. Many who call themselves conservatives (but are reckless spenders and therefore no friend of the founders) suggest that big spending is called for in the military, but they haven't done any homework. The founders would not support the massive military and defense spending both parties now tolerate as part of our ongoing reckless fiscal policy.

So, how in the world did conservatism and the Republican party get co-opted by the likes of Limbaugh, Palin, Hannity, and Joe the Plumber? Do people seriously think this parade of fools represents the best America has to offer? These people represent much of the worst in our great nation - hate, opportunism, and hypocrisy to name a few items.

I think much of this lies in the popularity of the "culture wars" where hot button themes like abortion and religion are mixed with politics to incite hatred and divisiveness. Limbaugh and Hannity have made a mint off of of admirers playing on their fears and hate. They are brilliant entertainers and great snake oil salesman, but they are not good representatives of our great country.

It is painful to watch smart conservatives like David Brooks and George Will get relatively little mainstream respect while buffoons like Limbaugh soak up attention, but Republicans are now reaping what they sowed in the last election.

Republican Convention Plans Change

On the Eve of Hurricane Gustav's landfall near New Orleans the Republicans have changed Convention plans though the details appear to remain fluid. President Bush and VP Cheney will not appear tomorrow in Minneapolis as planned, and other major speakers like the Governor of Louisiana will not be in attendance either.

The latest reports suggest the convention may only last one day, Presumably to nominate John McCain, and then be postponed to another date. Strategically this may actually have the advantage of giving the Republicans a monster event with monster media coverage much closer to the election than is usual.

Gustav is about to bring flooding and high wind to the Mississipi and Louisiana coastlines and the convention would have been both interrupted for Hurricane news and have been a conspicuous "celebration" in the midst of potentially another major storm tragedy for the Gulf Coast.

Bob Barr = 2008's Ralph Nader?

Well, not exactly politically, but Barr could certainly become a spoiler for McCain in a very close election if he pulled away a few percent of the conservative voters.

Bob Barr is running as a Libertarian, though he'd likely appeal to very conservative voters and would be running as something of an alternative to John McCain - a more appealing choice for some conservatives who like Bob's no holds Barr'd very conservative agenda and can overlook the tarnish he took on his reputation when Larry Flynt revealed some of Barr's earlier indiscretions during his first of three marriages.

Ironically though Barr is now working for the ACLU, a group hardly noted for their pro-conservative stances.

McCain Train Gets a Head of Steam

John McCain's strong campaign remains challenged a bit by Huckabee, but after today's strong showing in Virginia and the "Potomac Primaries", he remains the clear leader. The key question that remains on the Republican side of the presidential equation is whether McCain will pick Mike Huckabee as running mate or try to choose a moderate who can help him win in the states that have moderate political bases. I doubt McCain knows what he'll do yet because it is still not clear how conservatives will treat his candidacy.

Florida Primary: McCain vs Romney will be close

Most pundits are predicting a McCain win for Florida. I have not followed this one very close but my gut says that Romney will win and by a decent margin. Why? New Hampshire's polling fiasco suggest there may be a hidden voting block that does not participate in the polls but does participate in the elections. If Clinton's surprise NH victory is any indication this block could be "Senior Women" who are a large block that votes religiously. Who will senior Republican women support in Florida? Maybe McCain because he's an appealing character, but I think they'll vote disproportionately for the young, vigorous, and handsome Romney who appears far more "Presidential" and in command than McCain, who is older than many voters.

But I would not bet on this outcome....too many variables in play.

Thompson out of Republican Primary

Fred Thompson has dropped out of the race after a weak showing in the South Carolina primary on Saturday behind John McCain and Mike Huckabee. This was a predictable development, especially given Thompson's lackluster attitude towards the race. It almost appeared as if his candidacy was mostly the result of pressure from friends rather than a passion Thompson had to win.

McCain poised to win South Carolina, Thompson to drop soon.

John McCain appears poised to win South Carolina as early returns have McCain leading Huckabee with some 38% of the So. Carolina vote.

This should be seen as very encouraging for the McCain campaign given the conservatism of this state. If Huckabee can't win in So. Carolina it's an indication that his early Iowa victory was more from good strategy than hidden high levels of national support.

Thompson appears in line for a 4th place showing behind Romney, which will almost certainly lead to him dropping out of the race by tomorrow.

Note that the Democratic primary in So. Carolina is *next* Saturday.

Romney, Clinton in Nevada

Mitt Romney and Hilary Clinton are the Nevada Caucus winners. This is something of a surprise victory for Clinton who effectively lost a court battle to keep the cuacuses out of the Casinos, where Obama appeared to have a strong edge given his endorsement by the powerful Culinary Workers Union.

South Carolina Returns are now coming in with McCain and Huckabee close.

Duncan Hunter has dropped out, and I expect Thompson to drop by tomorrow morning after what appears to be a poor showing in South Carolina.

New Hampshire Primary - will it change the game?

Light posting here because I'm at the consumer electronics show in Las Vegas right now, and posting a lot about that at JoeDuck.com.

However it's looking like Obama will win NH and pretty much inherit the Clinton "Frontrunner" mantle, providing a powerful buzz boost for the campaign as it enters the races that have many more delegates at stake. If Edwards takes second it'll be even a more serious blow to the Clinton Campaign. Look for Clinton to hire a new campaign manager...tomorrow. I predict Carville will come on board, and I predict he will turn things around. Is Edwards a contender? Of course - though he seems to face the challenges of being seen as something of a Washington "insider" like Clinton and lacks the superb speaking style and "shiny new" appeal of Obama.

On the Republican side McCain looks like the clear winner, with Romney again the bridesmaid where he hoped to be the bride. It appears many are souring on Romney, appearing to fear his polished style and perhaps his Mormon religious heritage. Could "Big Love" have sunk Romney before he even had a shot? It's fair to say the Republican field is even more open than the Democrats with McCain, Romney, Giuliani, and Huckabee all real contenders for the prize.

Iowa Caucuses are Coming!

Tonight some 150.000 - 200,000 Iowans will gather at locations all across their state to choose the Democratic and Republican candidates as Iowa's recommendations for the national conventions. As the "jumping off point" for the Presidential Race Iowa's importance to the media is extraordinary - and many would say irrationally overblown by the media.

Some conventional wisdom holds that there are "three tickets out" of Iowa and this year probably won't be the exception to that on the Democratic side, where it's likely that Obama, Edwards, and Clinton will come out with enough support to make the next race - New Hampshire - the media's next darling.

Republican results will be complicated by the fact that Giuliani and McCain, both strong nationally, have made few attempts to do well in Iowa. I'd suggest that after Iowa we'll see the Republican field quickly narrow to Huckabee, Romney, McCain, and Giuliani with the first two as rising stars and the second two as falling stars. I still predict Romney will win the Republican nomination.

Based on the most recent polling averages I'm starting to doubt my own predictions of Romney and Clinton, but it's very hard to predict Caucus results based on polls because people must make a substantial committment to a caucus, especially on the Democratic side where you must also stand up and sometimes speak for your candidate.

Into the Iowa Home Stretch

The Iowa Caucuses are only about a week away, and it is by no means clear who will win Iowa, let alone how that will affect the longer term prospects of the winners and losers.

On the Republican side of the race McCain is showing signs of life in Iowa and New Hampshire, and in National polls. If he topples the "front runners" Romney and Giuliani it'll breath some life into a campaign that had been slowed considerably by challenges in organization and funding.

Still, President Picker predicts a Romney win in Iowa by a modest percentage and then a stronger win in New Hampshire, consolidating Romney as the Republican Front Runner and seeing more drop outs - probably Thompson first after predicted bad showings in the first two states.

Democrats are also hard to call, but we think Obama's latest surge has been mostly a product of big spending and Oprah appearances and his hard core support may fade when push comes to shove comes to the complex caucus process. In fact I think it's possible we'll see Obama support higher in number than Clinton's but still a caucus loss due to inferior organization and strategy or even some last minute bombshells that will weaken Obama support.

Clinton has one of the great political masterminds of the 20th century on her team, and it's unlikely the Clinton campaign will botch their broad based Iowa support and organization. Likewise Edwards has been through this before with good results, so his organization may outperform his actual support.

Of course even the weather can play a huge role in Iowa, as will the football game which gives Clinton a nice edge demographically as she has more female voters and they are less likely to stay home and watch the game. Stormy? Clinton wins handily due to organization and football. Perfect Weather? Obama has a shot. Edwards....second.

Giuliani released from MO hospital and is OK, Tancredo drops out of race.

Rudy Giuliani was hospitalized yesterday with flu-like symptoms. He's been released from the Missouri hospital and CNN is reporting he has a "clean bill of health", but they don't seem to have much information.

Although there is no reason to believe Giuliani's problems have anything to do with his past cancer, it's clear that health issues could impact this election more than most. John Edwards wife had cancer as did Giuliani, and it is reasonable to wonder what effect a health flare-up would have on these campaigns.

Donny Deutsch on Christmas Ads

Advertising expert Donny Deutsch was hard on most of the Christmas campaign advertising, suggesting much of it is a waste of time or not really "on message" for the candidates.

I agreed with some of Deutsch's analyses but disagreed with his criticism of the Obama ad, which I'd argue is simply brilliant. Giuliani ridiculously offers off camera people fruitcakes and sits beside a fake santa. Edwards simply offers a short campaign pitch. Clinton is wrapping presents like "National Pre-K" and "Health Care". Not terrible, but smells insincere which is a key Clinton challenge.

The two "stand out" ads are that of Huckabee, which somewhat spookily features a shelf filmed to look like a cross behind the candidate - almost as if they are sending a secret signal to the minions waiting in the wings for a messianic candidate. Deutsch stopped just short of calling this ad out as a dangerous sign of trends in American politics, but indicated he was alarmed by this type of symbolism.

The great ad is Obama's. His picture perfect family sits beside a tree as Michelle wishes everybody well. Obama then suggests it's time to come together rather than apart, and his family almost frames this concept in a greeting card way with the daughters wishing us all happy holidays. Schmalzy? Maybe, but this ad is a brilliant example of reaching the people you want in the way they want to be reached. Obama needs women to vote for him, not Hilary. This is a huge challenge that his campaign is meeting masterfully with Oprah and ads like this.

Lieberman endorses McCain

John McCain got a needed campaign boost with a Joe Lieberman endorsement, another from the Boston Globe, and a third from the DeMoines register.

McCain has been lagging in the polls despite his 2000 victory over GW Bush in the New Hampshire primary.

Meanwhile Barack Obama, now the Democratic frontrunner, and Mitt Romney are talking religion and politics more than they'd probably like to. Obama is defending himself against what appear to be Clinton campaign suggestions challenging his Christian roots, while Romney was heavily blasted by NBC's Tim Russert for his long support of questionable Mormon church policies.

Although negative attacks are just political business as usual, I'm disappointed that journalists like Russert and TV news are so quickly picking up and running with these irrelevancies. Religion is relevant to the character debate, and in the case of Huckabee, a minister, it would be good to clarify some allegiances, but I think suggestions that people can't separate religion and state are questionable in the case of all these candidates. Far more relevant are questions about governance and policy. Is it too much to expect more about that?

Republican Debate in Iowa

In a few moments the Republicans will begin the Iowa debate, which comes at a critical time as attention is far more focused on the election and the race has tightened considerably in the polls, with Giuliani and Thompson, former presumptive frontrunners, quickly losing ground to Romney and Huckabee who appear likely to do well in Iowa.

Huckabee v Obama? Who'd have thunk it?

Despite our suggestions that Clinton and Romney are the presumptive nominees for the big matchup in November of 2008, Huckabee and Obama are surging in the national and state polls, giving each a decent shot at their party's nomination.

Morton Kondrake suggests Huckabee's appeal is as a "compassionate conservative", but suggests he does not have the money or organization for a likely win. Of course people tend to flock to popularity so money and support are already flowing to him. Obama already has an excellent organization and financing machine in place, and this week's Oprah extravaganzas, combined with his improving showing in the Iowa and NH polling, give him a real shot at the nomination.

Predictions? We are still saying Hilary v Romney in general election, but his is American politics and anything - and that means pretty much anything - can change the tide of history almost overnight.

Romney on religion

Tomorrow's speech by Mitt Romney on his religious views will be a very significant event in the republican primary (I'd say speech about Romney's "Mormon religious views", but I bet Romney himself will only say the word "Mormon" a few times).

Look for Romney to do this:

Very gently outline Mormon beliefs, stressing their Christian basis and general compatibility with mainstream Protestantism.

Very powerfully suggest how important faith and religion are to his life, stressing things shared by Christians rather than the Mormon items.

Wrap up with suggestions that his views are "just like" the views of mainstream Christian Protestants and Catholics.

Mention Jesus several times and Joseph Smith no more than once.

Many are comparing this to JFK's speech abut his Catholic heritage not being a threat to America, but I think this is probably misguided because times have changed so much in the past 47 American years of elections.

Unless Romney fails miserably with his delivery or gets off point, I think he'll put the religious issues to rest until the general election. Why?

* Mormonism is not a radical religion, rather more of an offshoot of Christianity. Aside from some quirky sect views mainstream Christians won't be as threatened by this as many now suggest.

* Religion is NOT as powerful a force for Republicans as many have suggested. Although Karl Rove and other brilliant manipulations of the religious right wing helped in elections it is not at all clear they changed outcomes, because religious right wing folks are very likely to vote conservative Republican and very likely to vote. Will they vote for Romney? I think yes, because they'll see that he's the best shot against Hilary Clinton. In this sense Huckabee may post a challenge for Romney as he'll draw the votes that Romney would have won over Giuliani.

A master stroke for Romney would pull Huckabee into his campaign immediately as his prospective VP. Very unusual move, but I Huckabee simply does not have the cash to win and this combination would allay many concerns about Romney's religion and sincerity. Also, Huckabee with cash would have a good shot at winning the whole thing. Huckabee plus Romney would be unbeatable in Republican Primary and then could play the national election as a "moderate to liberal Romney" with a "true conservative Huckabee" unifying theme. This would challenge Clinton to also pick a very powerful VP - probably Obama - and we'd see one of the most ideologically contrasted elections in some time.