The new political landscape. Stay Tuned.

As the Republicans take control of congress and the Tea Party starts to weild real power, the American Political landscape will again change. Too many analysts seem confused by what is wrongly perceived as a shift in the way people view big government. Obama's election was not an endorsement of big government - rather it reflected the powerful desire on the part of the public for new people and new approaches. In some ways the electorate is "experimenting" with politicians - bringing in new ones until they find something they like. Dissatisfaction with GW Bush and the feeling that neither Hilary Clinton nor John McCain would bring new and inspired innovation and leadership largely account for Obama's win. Those factors were probably more important than his own policies.

In many ways the "seesaw" Democracy we have is inefficient, but it does serve to change the game. Unfortunately we don't see this in the congress and Senate. Founders such as Franklin and Jefferson generally advised in favor of term limits but these rules were only constitutionalized for the office of the Presidency.

What's in store? If events immediately preceding the elections are any indication, Obama may continue to find ways to cooperate and compromise to avoid the gridlock many are predicting. Was Obama to some extent handicapped by Democrats control of the congress which forced him to support fiscally questionable policy making? Now in power, will Tea Party folks continue to fight for the strident conservative spending principles of their campaign?

Stay ... Tuned ... America

The Circular Nature of Politics Favors Obama in 2012. Birth Certificate Nonsense.

It's hard not to like Barack Obama. All but his harshest and largely irrational critics find fault with a Presidential persona that quickly captivated not only a majority of Americans but a majority of *the world's population* We have not seen this level of enthusiasm for an American President since John Kennedy, and in Obama's case it's arguably more justified as Kennedy's hard line stances separated him more severely from the global "peasant class" than Obama.

The latest exhibit of the Obama charm is his perfect handling of the arrest of Professor Robert Gates of Harvard by the Cambridge Police. Gates and a friend forced entry into Gates' home due to a problem with a door, police were called, and although details are not entirely clear yet it appears Gates heaped verbal abuse on the arresting officer until the officer decided to arrest him for disorderly conduct. After initially calling the arrest "stupid" and helping to make the case national news, Obama took back this characterization, noted that both men probably overreacted to the situation, and invited them to the White House for a beer and handshake. This is both Presidential theater and politics and it's brilliant - with Obama effectively diffusing a simple but explosive situation with a simple act.

Enter the Republican Party and the anti Obama crowd, best represented by Rush Limbaugh and other right wing talk radio people and Fox news. Even as one can reasonably characterize Obama's budget busting stimulus as mistaken and dangerous these clowns are focusing on items of little interest to the general public and of almost no significance to an informed person.

First, the nonsense about Obama's birth certificate. The Right wing argument suggests that the "Mainstream Media" is burying the story *because it is real*. This of course is preposterous since 1) It's hardly buried - it's pretty much a regular lead story on right wing blogs and radio and perhaps soon even part of CNN's Lou Dobbs' increasingly nutty rants.

The story that Obama is not a citizen *if true* is a guaranteed Pultizer Prize for any legitimate reporter, so it takes a mind blinded by blathering conspiracy nonsense to think this is a cover up.

Of course it is curious that Obama has not allowed his team to produce the document, and I think it's very probably a lost / defaced / tampered certificate. Another possibility is that a perfectly normal certificate is sitting around and Obama is cleverly allowing the right to stick out it's head until the next election when he'll produce the document - effectively allowing the "enemy" to waste time and resources fighting for a lost cause.

Here's how I think this will play out over the next 3 years:

* Right wing gang will keep up the heat.

* Obama will eventually give in when the cost exceeds the cost of battling the next stage from the vast conspiracy crowd.

* The vault BC will be messed up or missing or defaced.

* The chant will shift again. What began as "Born in Kenya" and morphed to "Not born in USA" will become something like "Mother too young to be citizen" or "Obama can't be President with a defaced Document".

People should bother reading the constitution about this even though "Natural Born Citizen" is far too vague to be of help. Ironic that the Republicans are once again trying to use technicalities to take over. Perhaps after the Bush 2000 vote fiasco - where Gore won Florida but technicalities made that impossible to enforce - Republicans started to think presidential races should be determined on technicalities rather than by the consent of the governed.

But I'd caution them not to try to make that case to Washington, Adams, Jefferson, or Madison who would view the very differently. If there is ONE THING that is clear in the constition of the USA, "Consent of the Governed" matters, and the right wings attempts to thwart the will of the people should leave a bad taste in the mouth of even the staunchest Republican partisan.

Although almost every legitimate constitutional scholars will say the claims against Obama are preposterous, a handful of kooky lawyers plus the shrill and irrational voices of Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh will keep making the case, hoping it will win votes in 2012.

It won't.

Obama probably is vulnerable - and very legitimately so - in 2012 if the fight is about massive debt. Luckily for him it won't be. It'll be about "no birth certificate" for Obama and "No marriage certificate" for gays. These stupid talking points helped GW Bush win in the past, but there appears to be no Karl Rove waiting in the wings to help the next Republican challenger for the Presidency. The Republicans will knock themselves silly on culture war issues until they realize the country simply does not care that much about that stuff. They care about the economy, international challenges, health care, and massive debt.

My prediction: The Republicans have lost this before the campaign has even begun.

Obama's lead steady, McCain looking for a miracle

Unless modern polling is pretty much a garbage science (it's not), the election appears to be wrapping up with Obama in a commanding lead and McCain poised for a defeat that will pull many states out of the proverbial "red" column.

Here in Oregon Jeff Merkley is poised to wrestle away the seat of our excellent moderate Senator Gordon Smith. The campaign has been nasty and expensive and although Smith is well funded Merkley now has the help of national funding that will - in my opinion - give him the election, probably more on the basis of negative ads about Smith than platform issues.

Perhaps as importantly, the financial troubles of the country and perceived foreign policy failures of the Bush administration appear to be taking the country towards a House and Senate that are so strongly controlled by the Democrats many policies will face low levels of opposition.

This is likely to prove a mixed blessing unless the Democrats use this power with greater wisdom than either party has in the past. As the country and the world teeters on the brink of a potential depression the likes of which the world has not seen since the great Depression of the 1930s we can only hope that the new administration and congress will prove to be the most innovative and successful American political experiment of modern times. Anything short of that .... could be trouble.

Democratic Convention Day One

As Michelle Obama prepares to address the Democratic National Convention in Denver the pundits are talking about the tone of the convention which so far has been very much a sort of cozy, feel good affair rather than a presentation of the talking points most strategists think the Democrats must hammer home to win the election - points such as economic challenges and the Iraq war.

However it appears to me the strategy is solid, and is to present Obama as a friendly and unifying force rather than a combative one. Appealing to people's desire for change is complicated because many of our natural tendencies
are to keep comfortable with the status quo and view agents of change with great skepticism. This is a natural and functional response and playing off this tendency will form much of the McCain strategy moving forward. Already Fox news and other conservative spokespeople are trying to paint Obama as an unknown force of change - almost as a foreigner rather than a dedicated pubic servant.

Thus I think the counter strategy by the Democrats is to make people feel comfortable with Obama. Look for an almost constant dialog promoting this agenda - Obama as a composed, friendly, stable fellow American who will make the changes many Americans feel are needed in the country.

Michelle Obama's delivery is brilliant so far - she's polished and confident, yet speaking almost conversationally with the very enthusiastic Denver crowd. Her mother and brother's introduction was touching and it is not hard to believe Michelle Obama is herself an exceptional example of the American dream.

John King at CNN is very correctly noting that the idea is to make a connection for people who otherwise see little in common with Obama.

David Gergen "She rescued the evening for the Democrats"

Obama leading McCain by about 15%

Two national polls - Gallup and Newsweek - nearly agree that Obama now leads John McCain in national polling by about 15%. This substantial lead seems consistent with what many see as Obama's huge popularity in the face of McCain challenges with image and with associations with the unpopular Bush presidency.

Adding to McCain's concerns is the fact that Obama appears to be on the verge of amassing the greatest war chest in presidential history, where even a modest level of contributions from existing supporters will give Obama over $200,000,000 to fight McCain who is unlikely to see much more than half that amount in my view. Soft money may prove to be more important in this election however, and in that department the Republicans can draw on the larger average incomes and give amounts far exceeding the 2300 maximum for personal contributions.

Clinton still leading in several upcoming primaries

Many polls continue to show Clinton ahead in Texas, Pennsylvania, and Ohio as the Democratic Primary continues in a virtual delegate dead heat between Obama and Clinton. Most polls are showing Obama with a lead in Wisconsin and Hawaii today. Wins in those states will demonstrate even more clearly how powerfully the Obama campaign has emerged as the front running campaign.

Today's absurd accusations from the Clinton campaign about speech plagiarism by Obama appear to be a strange way to score negative attention points during this critical time, and are likely to blow over tomorrow during the Wisconsin and Hawaii primary reporting frenzy.

Ladies and Gentlemen, Dems will have a convention!

Although it's not clear yet that the Democratic nomination will require a series of convention votes this is looking more likely as Barack Obama storms ahead with excellent showings in states that just a month ago looked like they were leaning to Hilary Clinton. The pundit talk has moved to superdelegates - the 20% factor in the Democratic nomination that can swing things away from the popular vote. I'm now thinking that many superdelegates may remain uncommitted through the convention in an effort to 1) boost their own importance and 2) help the national committee if it needs to balance off superdelegates to even up the score. It may prove wise for the Dems to either vote to NOT count superdelegates to avoid a populist backlash if the nominee was not chosen by the popular vote, rather by schmoozing the right party insiders. Clinton would be the one more likely to win in this fashion and it's hard to make a case in favor of this voting style given the 2000 election where GW Bush won without the popular vote, much to the dismay and outrage of Democrats.

Delegate Count before today's Feb 9 primaries: Clinton by a nose but only because of superdeletgates

RealClearPolitics.com is counting the Democrat delegates and boy are they close. Clinton holds a very slight lead *if you include the superdelegates*, Obama leads with popular vote delegates. I'm sure Howard Dean and other party leaders are dreading the possibility that superdelegates could make the difference in the winner, throwing the party

On Tim Russert David Brooks suggested that Clinton has the edge because the remaining states have lower education levels and he suggests that slightly favors Clinton, and also that Superdelegates may make the difference.

A paper obtained from the Obama Campaign by Russert had these totals *before* the superdelegates come into play:

Obama: 1806
Clinton: 1789

Wow, that's CLOSE!

Race and Voting

John McCain has all but locked up the Republican nomination but the democrats appear to have months to go before the decision is made.

I'm really surprised by the Obama surge but I think on the Dem side you now have legions of very enthusiastic new voters pitted against the old Democratic guard who tend to want Clinton. There are also specific demographic factors that have become very important, and contrary to much mainstream foolishness on race issues it appears that: There does appear to be racism, but it's not coming from mainstream white America. Exit polling data indicates that Latino voters may be voting for Clinton in some part because of race, though it's hard to tease out that factor in most polls.

We also see that African Americans are voting in huge percentages for Obama. Is this race based voting? It's hard to argue it is not when you have, say 80%+ when the candidates have effectively identical policies with respect to issues that surround race.

We probably won't know until after the primaries are over and somebody takes a good look at exit polling questions about race, but I'd guess that even though there is some race based voting it won't be the key factor in this race, partly because the two groups that appear to be most sensitive to race issues - Latinos and African Americans - each represent about the same percentage of the population and appear to have different ideas about who to support.

Democratic primary math

RealclearPolitics has great coverage of the campaign math. Although it's a simplification, the delegate counts for the top big states at 11pm EST assuming current % stay the same and proportionality is the same as the main voting percentages (VERY approximate here!)

Obama Clinton
CA
NY 88 137
IL 101 49
GA 63 34
NJ 46 56
MA 36 55
-----------------------
334 331

Wow, that's close!

Clinton v Obama - how will California Vote?

Super Tuesday may end with no clear Democratic winner. Clinton and Obama are trading victories in several Eastern states. Only 5 states have more than 100 delegates at stake (CA, NY, IL, GA, NJ), and since they are proportional in most cases you need to win big to reap a big delegate advantage.

Clinton won New York, Obama Illinois, Obama Georgia, and Clinton NJ. The big California prize is still up for grabs with those polls closing in about ten minutes, at 8pm PST.

Kennedy Endorses Obama

Ted Kennedy has endorsed Barack Obama. Although most of the media, almost gushing over the announcement, suggests this is a very positive development for the Obama campaign, I think that on balance this may not bode well for Obama.

First, the Kennedy endorsement consolidates Obama's position as the most liberal of the two key players. Yet he was already very popular among the most liberal factions of the Democratic party. Strategically, how will this endorsement affect the votes of the suburban soccer moms and moderate Democrats? I'd suggest it will push them firmly into the Clinton camp. Also significant is that even if Obama wins the Democratic nomination it's clear that painting himself as a "left wing liberal" will not help in the general election. The Democrat is *almost certain* to get the liberal vote regardless of the candidate lineups on either the Democrat or Republican side. The key battleground in the election will be the undecided, indecisive middle of the road voters who I predict want to see balanced and moderate forces prevail. As GW Bush did in 2000, Obama has masterfully portrayed himself as a "reach across the aisle" candidate. Kennedy's endorsement will not lend much support to this assertion.

Kucinich out

Democratic Presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich has dropped out of the race. Lackluster poll numbers combined with a recent legal confrontation with MSNBC which fought hard to keep Kucinich out of the recent Democratic Debate. The New York Times reports on that conflict, where MSNBC wanted to exclude Kucinich after earlier invites and Kucinich arguing that this was a breach of contract. Initially the ruling was in Kucinich's favor, but appeared at last minute to be overtuned by legal appeal.

This leaves the democratics with three candidates: Clinton, Edwards, and Obama. Although Clinton still leads nationally Obama is now poised to win Saturday's South Carolina debate which may edge him even closer to polling parity with Clinton as we move into what may prove to be the definitive day in the election: February 5.

It's a horserace!

As the primaries go to different players with no clear winners in sight the 2008 campaign is shaping up to be a close race in both parties as well as the general election.

Clinton's surprise win in New Hampshire raised more questions about polling validity as almost all polls showed Obama winning handily. McCain's strong showing in New Hampshire has revitalized his sagging campaign, suddenly focusing a lot of attention on Romney's
vulnerabilities.

Tomorrow's Michigan race could be a critical one for the Romney campaign. He's from Michigan where his father was a popular Governor. If McCain beats Romney in Michigan look for some major strategy changes by the Romney campaign, and perhaps even a drop out though I think that is very unlikely. Romney's personal wealth gives him a powerful financial backing that is lacking in the McCain, Giuliani, or Huckabee camps.

For the Dems, look for some lively debate tomorrow night as Edwards, Clinton, and Obama duke it out in Las Vegas in the first debate with only those three frontrunners.

Iowa Caucuses are Coming!

Tonight some 150.000 - 200,000 Iowans will gather at locations all across their state to choose the Democratic and Republican candidates as Iowa's recommendations for the national conventions. As the "jumping off point" for the Presidential Race Iowa's importance to the media is extraordinary - and many would say irrationally overblown by the media.

Some conventional wisdom holds that there are "three tickets out" of Iowa and this year probably won't be the exception to that on the Democratic side, where it's likely that Obama, Edwards, and Clinton will come out with enough support to make the next race - New Hampshire - the media's next darling.

Republican results will be complicated by the fact that Giuliani and McCain, both strong nationally, have made few attempts to do well in Iowa. I'd suggest that after Iowa we'll see the Republican field quickly narrow to Huckabee, Romney, McCain, and Giuliani with the first two as rising stars and the second two as falling stars. I still predict Romney will win the Republican nomination.

Based on the most recent polling averages I'm starting to doubt my own predictions of Romney and Clinton, but it's very hard to predict Caucus results based on polls because people must make a substantial committment to a caucus, especially on the Democratic side where you must also stand up and sometimes speak for your candidate.

Iowa Democrats - Clinton, Obama, Edwards almost a dead heat?

Real Clear Politics has a great examination of recent Iowa polling, and averages the latest information to get these numbers:

Clinton 28.4
Obama 26.4
Edwards 25.8

Averaging has some challenges but probably paints a better picture than any individual polling effort. By this measure the race is pretty much a dead heat (though I HATE ther terms "statistical dead heat" because it misleads people into thinking there is no difference between different numbers. There is a difference. When two numbers are within the polls margin of error it still means the top person is "more likely" to win, but suggests far more uncertainty than if the numbers are outside of the margin of error.

For example Richardson with under 10% has virtually no chance of an Iowa top 3 placement, but any of the top 3 could win this race.

However, I continue to believe Clinton will win due to superior organization and strategy and the football game which will affect men more than women and thus Clinton's popularity among Iowa women will be enhanced, but the game is not likely to be fully reflected in polls.

Prediction: Clinton Wins Iowa and also New Hampshire.

Into the Iowa Home Stretch

The Iowa Caucuses are only about a week away, and it is by no means clear who will win Iowa, let alone how that will affect the longer term prospects of the winners and losers.

On the Republican side of the race McCain is showing signs of life in Iowa and New Hampshire, and in National polls. If he topples the "front runners" Romney and Giuliani it'll breath some life into a campaign that had been slowed considerably by challenges in organization and funding.

Still, President Picker predicts a Romney win in Iowa by a modest percentage and then a stronger win in New Hampshire, consolidating Romney as the Republican Front Runner and seeing more drop outs - probably Thompson first after predicted bad showings in the first two states.

Democrats are also hard to call, but we think Obama's latest surge has been mostly a product of big spending and Oprah appearances and his hard core support may fade when push comes to shove comes to the complex caucus process. In fact I think it's possible we'll see Obama support higher in number than Clinton's but still a caucus loss due to inferior organization and strategy or even some last minute bombshells that will weaken Obama support.

Clinton has one of the great political masterminds of the 20th century on her team, and it's unlikely the Clinton campaign will botch their broad based Iowa support and organization. Likewise Edwards has been through this before with good results, so his organization may outperform his actual support.

Of course even the weather can play a huge role in Iowa, as will the football game which gives Clinton a nice edge demographically as she has more female voters and they are less likely to stay home and watch the game. Stormy? Clinton wins handily due to organization and football. Perfect Weather? Obama has a shot. Edwards....second.

Tancredo leaves Republican field

Tom Tancredo, dead last in the polls, will drop out of the race today. It's not official yet but will happen during the press conference he'll hold before Thursday afternoon.

Tancredo's strong anti-illegal immigration message did not appear to resonate with voters.

Meanwhile, Republicans continue to vigorously court New Hampshire voters. Iowa is more a Democratic battleground although both states could provide a huge boost to winners in terms of support as well as the mother's milk of politics - cash.

Donny Deutsch on Christmas Ads

Advertising expert Donny Deutsch was hard on most of the Christmas campaign advertising, suggesting much of it is a waste of time or not really "on message" for the candidates.

I agreed with some of Deutsch's analyses but disagreed with his criticism of the Obama ad, which I'd argue is simply brilliant. Giuliani ridiculously offers off camera people fruitcakes and sits beside a fake santa. Edwards simply offers a short campaign pitch. Clinton is wrapping presents like "National Pre-K" and "Health Care". Not terrible, but smells insincere which is a key Clinton challenge.

The two "stand out" ads are that of Huckabee, which somewhat spookily features a shelf filmed to look like a cross behind the candidate - almost as if they are sending a secret signal to the minions waiting in the wings for a messianic candidate. Deutsch stopped just short of calling this ad out as a dangerous sign of trends in American politics, but indicated he was alarmed by this type of symbolism.

The great ad is Obama's. His picture perfect family sits beside a tree as Michelle wishes everybody well. Obama then suggests it's time to come together rather than apart, and his family almost frames this concept in a greeting card way with the daughters wishing us all happy holidays. Schmalzy? Maybe, but this ad is a brilliant example of reaching the people you want in the way they want to be reached. Obama needs women to vote for him, not Hilary. This is a huge challenge that his campaign is meeting masterfully with Oprah and ads like this.

Republican New Hampshire - Romney v McCain

Mitt Romney has a substantial lead in New Hampshire according to the NBC Wall Street Journal poll results discussed today on Chris Mathews Hardball. As we predicted some time ago Romney is the Republican to watch and the man to beat, as Giuliani's lead dwindles in the face of closer public scrutiny.

Likewise on the Democrat side Clinton maintains a sizable lead in New Hampshire although Obama now leads in Iowa 33% to 29% for Clinton.

President Picker is skeptical of the Iowa poll results showing an Obama lead. Although he may win, we still predict a Clinton Victory, feeling that support for Obama will prove "softer" than support for Clinton. Iowa Caucusing requires a substantial committment from supporters and it's not at all clear that Obama's new campaign troops will be as enthusiastic on caucus night as they have been attending Obama pep rallies with Oprah.