Exit Polls 2012, Ohio Exit Polling should give clues to the Romney v Obama 2012 Race

The US Presidential Election is here (as well as the US Senate, House, and thousands of local races) and we all would like to know the outcomes ... before the final tally.    Based on the best statistical analysis of polling through last week, Obama is the very likely winner of the presidential race.   Why?    Partly because Obama is winning in virtually all of the 'toss up" states where in some cases a small lead will translate into a very disproportionate number of votes.   Ohio, the key battleground, is leaning Obama and would give him 18 electoral votes. For Romney to pull off a victory he'll really need to "beat the odds" and win almost all the toss up states.    Obama, on the other hand, could lose more of the toss ups and still win the election.  

Based on Nate Silver's excellent statistical analysis from the New York Times, where he gives Obama a 91% chance of victory based on poll information, President Picker is predicting an Obama win today even before we see any exit poll information.    

What would have to happen for Romney to win?    Romney's hope is that the polls in battleground states have been biased in favor of Obama.   This seems unlikely but it is possible.   Conservatives may have been less likely to participate in the polls, methods may have included those who don't wind up voting, etc, etc.   However, contrary to many claims US polls, exit and otherwise, tend to be very accurate and a good predictor of election outcomes.   In 2000 for example, the exit polls stated that Gore won florida because ... he *would have won* Florida if the ballots in Palm Beach County had reflected voter intention.  These "butterfly ballots" led to confusion and many lost votes for Gore  (due to "overvoting" where people voted for both Gore and Buchanon for President and therefore the vote was NOT counted).    Exit polling was blamed in Florida when the real defect was the butterfly ballot of Palm Beach County   (designed and reviewed by Democrats, so unlikely to have been a conspiracy play to undercount Gore votes).

Today we'll be watching the toss up states - RealClearPolitics will have good coverage linked below.    Ohio is the key.   If Obama takes Ohio it's pretty much over.   However, if Romney takes Ohio it is likely to be a very long night, withe the prospect of another 2000 style election recount fiasco.

Toss Up (146)
CO (9)	FL (29)
IA (6)	MI (16)
NV (6)	NH (4)
NC (15)	OH (18)
PA (20)	VA (13)
WI (10)

Obama Romney 2012 Presidential Debate Schedule

Frank J. Fahrenkopf, Jr. and Michael D. McCurry, co-chairmen of the non-partisan, non-profit Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD), today announced formats for the presidential and vice presidential debates that feature extended discussion of major issues to be announced in advance.

The formats for the 90-minute debates are as follows:

First presidential debate (October 3, 2012, University of Denver, Denver, CO)

The debate will focus on domestic policy and be divided into six time segments of approximately 15 minutes each on topics to be selected by the moderator and announced several weeks before the debate.

The moderator will open each segment with a question, after which each candidate will have two minutes to respond. The moderator will use the balance of the time in the segment for a discussion of the topic.

Vice presidential debate (October 11, 2012, Centre College, Danville, KY)

The debate will cover both foreign and domestic topics and be divided into nine time segments of approximately 10 minutes each. The moderator will ask an opening question, after which each candidate will have two minutes to respond. The moderator will use the balance of the time in the segment for a discussion of the question.

Second presidential debate (October 16, 2012, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY)

The second presidential debate will take the form of a town meeting, in which citizens will ask questions of the candidates on foreign and domestic issues. Candidates each will have two minutes to respond, and an additional minute for the moderator to facilitate a discussion. The town meeting participants will be undecided voters selected by the Gallup Organization.

Third presidential debate (October 22, Lynn University, Boca Raton, FL)

The format for the debate will be identical to the first presidential debate and will focus on foreign policy.

All debates will be moderated by a single individual and will take place from 9:00-10:30 p.m. Eastern Time. There will be no opening statements and two-minute closing statements in all the debates. In all the debates except town meeting, the CPD recommends that the candidates be seated at a table with the moderator. Moderators will be selected and announced in August.

In addition, the CPD is undertaking an innovative internet-based voter education program that will encourage citizens to become familiar with the issues to be discussed in the debates, and to share their input with the debate moderators in advance of the debates. The program, which will be announced later this month, will be led by a coalition of internet leaders.

Fahrenkopf and McCurry said that the formats reflect extensive study by the CPD board of directors: "There are serious issues facing this country and the public has the right to expect a serious examination of those issues during this fall's debates. The CPD believes this can be accomplished best by focusing big time blocks on major domestic and foreign topics. The topics will be selected and announced in advance of the debates by the debate moderators.

"The debates are the most widely-watched political programs of any kind. These format changes are designed to promote substantive dialogue before, during and between the debates about the major issues of the day. They will permit citizens and candidates to come prepared for a series of voter education forums that inform and engage the public.

"Coupled with the internet program, the debates will serve as the foundation for a season of conversation this fall. Technology offers the means to provide and receive information - the CPD is committed to using this tool creatively and effectively to bring as many people as possible into the conversation."

The CPD has sponsored and produced all the presidential and vice presidential debates since 1987, the year it was established. More information can be found at www.debates.org.

Convention Bounce for Obama puts him back in the lead

Although some media outlets are still reporting a "dead heat", it's pretty clear that Obama is enjoying a post-convention bounce and probably remains a few points ahead of Romney.   If the election were held today, Obama would be the very likely winner both in terms of total vote and, more importantly, the electoral vote.

2012 Electoral votes may come into play again, though at this time it appears Obama's likely to take both the popular and the electoral vote, the latter by a larger margin.

Many of us have our fingers crossed that we will not again see a fiasco like the Gore v Bush election.   Gore won the popular vote in that election by about 500,000 votes nationally, but lost in the electoral college when all of Florida's electoral votes went to GW Bush after a series of court challenges that wound up in the Supreme Court.    Many fail to note that the exit polls from that election were *very* accurate in suggesting that Gore "won" the election, but in addition to other less important errors, the ballots in Palm Beach county was so confusing that people who thought they voted for Gore wound up as "overvotes" and were discarded - most because they had a vote for both Gore and for Pat Buchanon.    

Republicans Unite Around Mitt Romney

The Republican Convention in Tampa, Florida winds up soon as the party rallies around Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, Republican nominees for the US Presidency.

Ironically, the Republicans seem obsessed with convincing America that Mitt Romney is a really good guy. That won't be hard since Romney is one of the most hard working, friendly, and sincere folks you'll find in the political spectrum.   From a strategic point of view it seems to me they'd do better to focus on his political abilities.    Obama's got the clear edge both in polling and in the advantages inherent with incumbency, so one would think the strategists would be looking for harder hitting, more powerful talking points.

That said, personalizing Romney may be important to his campaign as Obama's also got the clear edge as an appealing personality.

... more soon as Romney is about to speak ...

Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, Paul

Although here at President Picker we're still predicting a Romney victory in the Republican Primary and an Obama win in the general election, it is now clear that Romney has failed to "wrap up" the Republican Primary as many predicted he would by now.   Rick Santorum has clearly been annointed the new darling of conservative Republicans and his big wins in several states give him a real shot at the nomination.  Gingrich's campaign is probably on its last legs now, while Ron Paul's substantial showings continue to be largely ignored by many who generally argue that Paul is less likely than Santorum or Romney to "break out" with enough votes to win the nomination outright.

Things get very interesting if Santorum, Paul, and Gingrich do well enough to thwart an outright victory by Romney, leading to a brokered Republican convention.  This would be a very interesting scenario as we'd likely see mainstreamers still favor Romney while the hard liners - and often the most enthusiastic campaigners - will likely favor Santorum.

President Picker's Prediction:    Romney / Santorum Ticket in 2012 vs Obama Biden.

Palin 2012 Presidential Bid is a big Win for Obama

As Sarah Palin Bid for the presidency becomes more and more certain, the Obama camp should be happy to see Republicans reeling under the pressures that will come from splitting a ticket between more mainstream candidates and Palin, the darling of the "Tea Party" conservatives who have injected a lot of passion but not a not of reason into the upcoming debates over the future of US policy.

Early prediction: Look for Palin to narrowly loose to the mainstream candidate - our early money is on Romney, and look for that fight to take the wind out of the Republican sails, leading to a fairly easy Obama win in 2012.

UK Guardian: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jul/12/sarah-palin-election-war-chest

McCain looking very strong for Republicans

As Super Tuesday results pour in McCain is looking like the likely republican winner. Huckabee is strongly positioned to win 6+ states, and whether this hurt Romney or not will be debated for some time in the Republican party. Most likely scenario right now? McCain Huckabee ticket in the fall.

It's a horserace!

As the primaries go to different players with no clear winners in sight the 2008 campaign is shaping up to be a close race in both parties as well as the general election.

Clinton's surprise win in New Hampshire raised more questions about polling validity as almost all polls showed Obama winning handily. McCain's strong showing in New Hampshire has revitalized his sagging campaign, suddenly focusing a lot of attention on Romney's
vulnerabilities.

Tomorrow's Michigan race could be a critical one for the Romney campaign. He's from Michigan where his father was a popular Governor. If McCain beats Romney in Michigan look for some major strategy changes by the Romney campaign, and perhaps even a drop out though I think that is very unlikely. Romney's personal wealth gives him a powerful financial backing that is lacking in the McCain, Giuliani, or Huckabee camps.

For the Dems, look for some lively debate tomorrow night as Edwards, Clinton, and Obama duke it out in Las Vegas in the first debate with only those three frontrunners.

Polls?!

As Mark noted below Huckabee is showing as the Iowa leader in the Zogby tracking poll as well as the averaged ClearPolitics polling here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/iowa-primary.html

The MSNBC poll they discussed today showing Romney in the lead is listed at ClearPolitics as Mason Dixon, but as I've noted before poll averaging is probably the best measure assuming all the polls in the average are unbiased. Averaging can fail miserably if you include polling that is not objective - e.g. polls by groups with an agenda or axe to grind. I have no reason to believe any of these fall into that category.

Huckabee's press conference today was the talk of the media at MSNBC who suggested he was trying to be negative without running the negative ad he'd planned. It'll be interesting to see whether Romney or Huckabee can master the art of being very negative *without acting like you are being negative*. Both are working hard at that during these last few days.

Some polls are showing Obama over Clinton where MSNBC had almost a dead heat. It'll be fun to try to untangle some of this data over the next few days, though our predictions remain as Clinton and Romney with Iowa Victories.

New Hampshire Concord Monitor Newspaper: Romney need not apply for President.

The Concord Monitor , in a rambling, scathing editorial written by "monitor staff", suggests that Mitt Romney is basically a "fake" and should not be President. The ranting critique of Romney seemed odd to me coming as it does from a liberal paper that one would think would be at least mildly supportive of Romney's history of mild Republicanism rather than the more right wing forms it claims (correctly) he's catering to as the campaign heats up. Almost bizarre is the Monitor's description of what they see as a litany of Romney defeciencies:

... athletic build, ramrod posture, Reaganesque hair, a charismatic speaking style and a crisp dark suit. You'd add a beautiful wife and family, a wildly successful business career and just enough executive government experience. You'd pour in some old GOP bromides - spending cuts and lower taxes ...

So let me get this straight Monitor staff: Republicans need a scrawny bald guy with bad posture in an ill-fitting light colored suit. He should speak poorly, have an ugly wife, and ugly children. He should have failed in business and have huge amounts of government experience, and favor more spending and higher taxes.

Huh?

Frankly, I think the editorial is more conspicuous than Romney's newfound conservatism, it reads more like a paper trying to derail the person who is arguably most likely to win the general election than as a real statement of the paper's sensibilities. Failing to disclose their likely preference for the Democratic nominee smells wrong to me given how critical they seem to be of Romney's "past liberalism"

C'mon Concord Monitor - Romney's conservative focus is like Hilary's hawkish sensibilities or Edwards populist ones. These are simply good campaign strategy - play your weaknesses as strengths and draw in people near the middle. Most of these candidates (Obama as possible exception), have legislative records we can examine and there is little reason they will diverge significantly from past voting.

Romney may or may not be suited for the job of president, but the Monitor's weak and self-serving editorial is hardly a guide to his qualifications or lack of them.

Giuliani still leading nationally

Rudy Giuliani is still the clear Republican frontrunner. Here at President Picker we are predicting a Mitt Romney win based on what we predict will be early victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, but this is speculative. In national polls Giuliani is still clearly ahead of Romney, and it's possible the early primaries will not presage any victories in the much larger state primaries that will come later in the season.

What is remarkable is that the decision is now upon us. In only six weeks the primary season begins with the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire primary follows shortly thereafter.

Why Romney Will Win the Republican Nomination

President Picker predicts that Mitt Romney will soon be the clear front runner in the Republican primaries, and that Romney will go on to win the nomination. There are several key factors that suggest a Romney win:

First, Fred Thompson has not turned out to be the "Ronald Reagan" his supporters insist he is. Thompson generally appears tired and irritated and impatient with the process, which probably goes against much of the grain of his Limousine Hollywood Conservatism. Like Giuliani Thompson carries more than the normal personal baggage of a presidential candidate, and although conservatives are generally very forgiving of any heterosexual personal transgressions of fellow conservatives this challenge takes a toll with voters on the fence.

With McCain now pretty much out of the picture due to his Iraq war support and money problems, Giuliani is Romney's key competition, and Giuliani will prove no match for Romney. Among the many reasons are Romney's (sincere I assume) born again anti abortionist stance which makes it easy for core conservatives to overlook his Mormon religion. Also, Romney is brilliantly downplaying his religion as a factor in the race. Mormonism is controversial, especially among bible belt conservatives, but if Romney can stress his legitimate claim to solid family values and strong religious beliefs he'll be able to successfully continue to downplay the specific beliefs that might offend other conservatives. Clearly his anti abortion stance will trump Giuliani's pro choice stance and clearly this is more of a factor for conservatives than Mormonism.

Lastly and most importantly Romney is the most *presidential looking* of the candidates. Even those of us who claim to maintain impartialy with respect to looks and demeanor .. do not maintain impartiality. Reagan and Clinton were masters at looking and acting presidential, and both got more credit for this than is commonly recognized. As the election heats up and advertising hits national markets, look for Romney to get a boost simply because he looks and acts very presidential.

Giuliani vs Romney and Clinton vs Obama

OK, I think even the probable winners are clear now (Romney and Clinton), but it's very hard to think any of the "third place" folks have much of a chance now. Some suggest we may see a repeat of the democratic primaries where John Kerry came out of early poor shows to capture the nomination, but the ballgame is very, very different now. First, Clinton is the "heir apparent" to the nomination for the Dems, and it would take simply *enormous* political risk not to back her if the campaigns heat up. You don't build up decades of political capital for nothing, and I can hardly see mayors and governors come out of meetings with Bill Clinton telling him they are not going to publicly support Hilary.

Pundits love races, so people like Chris Mathews are enthusiastically hoping for a horserace and overplaying Obama's recent poll successes in Iowa. He's not talking enough about the fact that even if Obama squeaks by with an Iowa win (unlikely), this won't leave him with enough time and money to spend in the upcoming primaries. The "must take Iowa" strategy was probably wise, but I'm guessing from the polls it's taking it's toll on the Obama campaign. If Obama loses in Iowa he's pretty much out. If Obama wins in Iowa it's an enormous uphill struggle to capture votes in even one of the next several primaries. Ergo..... Clinton wins and this will be clear soon. Dems don't want to be fighting when they can be bashing Bush and the Republican nominee.

Next: Why Romney will win the Republican nomination

Iowa Caucuses to be held January 3rd, 2008

The caucus and primary sweepstakes continues as Iowa annoucnces it's caucuses will be held January 3rd. New Hampshire is expected to announce dates this week and appears likely to choose January 8th. These decisions mean the earliest primary season in history, and mean we will probably know the democratic and republican candidates very early in the year - perhaps as early as February.

President Picker is very confident that the Democratic nominee will be Hilary Clinton, who leads hugely in the polls and we predict that Mitt Romney will be the Republican primary winner.