Caroline Kennedy Likely to Take Clinton's NY Senate Seat

Reports are suggesting that Caroline Kennedy is likely to take over the NY Senate Seat vacated by Hillary Clinton in January when she assumes the role of US Secretary of State. Kennedy was on the "short list" for this position and now she has indicated interest in the job. As a key figure in politics for many years and an early and prominent Obama supporter, Kennedy appears likely to get the nod soon for the Senate.

Obama announces his security / foreign policy team

President Elect Obama announced his national security and foreign policy team this morning which includes Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State, Acting Defense Secretary Gates who will stay in his current position at Defense, Janet Napolitano as Secretary of Homeland Security, Eric Holder as US Attorney General, Susan Rice as UN Representative. and General James Jones as National Security Advisor.

Clinton is one of the most intriguing choices for a major player in decades, and promises at the very least to be one of the most prominent international representatives of the USA in some time. Although it's unlike we'll see Bill Clinton at her side during international trips, his Presidential status and extraordinary number of prominent contacts throughout the world is likely to give Hillary Clinton unprecedented levels of access and potential acceptance on the international stage.

Obama inherits some of the nation's greatest challenges both on the economic and foreign policy fronts and it will be interesting to see how well his approach can work by essentially placing a Clinton style cabinet at his side.

Obama Nominated by Acclamation at Democratic National Convention

(not reporting live from convention)

Barack Obama was just nominated by acclamation after an appeal for that by Senator Hillary Clinton as the New York Delegation prepared to cast their votes.

Party Chair Nancy Pelosi then called for the yes vote and after an enthusiastic yes crowd shout, whe did not wait for any "no" votes to be shouted and quickly concluded the nomination. Rules of order meant that Obama then would officially accept the nomination.

It's day three of the Democratic Convention and there has been little to suggest the powerful levels of discontent in the party a few months ago as Barack Obama narrowly beat out Hillary Clinton for the nomination.

Democratic Convention Day 2

(not blogged from the convention)

Day 2 of the Democratic Convention brought us the much anticipated speech of Hillary Clinton, which to all but the sharpest critics was a very powerful endorsement of both the party ideals and Barack Obama.

After a touching mother and daughter introduction, Senator Clinton gave what I felt was probably the most powerful and the most important speech of her entire career, essentially fully conceding the election to Obama and expressing in no uncertain terms that her supporters should support him now.

Although cynics would say Clinton had no choice here because to fight would have been to lose future party support, I think these relationships are fairly well defined from the outset, and Clinton has known for some time that she'd be backing Obama pretty much as she has for the past several months. The election will not hinge on Clinton support - rather Obama must try to convince the approximately 10% of Clintonians who say they will now support McCain that although Clinton was their choice, Obama is their man now. Given that Clinton and Obama's politics are very similar this is unlikely to be a problem.

Tonight there are likely to be some minor Clinton supporter skirmishes but it will be very hard to stand in the way of what has so far been a very positive and powerful message of support for Obama from all corners of the Democratic Party, including a simply brilliant speech by Michelle Obama on Monday night.

McCain with Palin as VP?

Still something of a long shot for VP, I would suggest that Alaska Governor Sarah Palin would be an interesting choice for McCain because she'd pull some of the soft Obama support from former Clinton folks. Having a woman on his ticket, especially if Obama does *not* have one on his, would help equalize the advantage the democrats currently enjoy for promoting a form of "affirmative action" lacking in American presidential politics for the past 240 years.

Obama's choice? I'd say he's still getting lobbied by Hillary and the gang for her, but that is only about 20% likely. Biden? Maybe, but he's not the military strategist that, say, Wesley Clark or Colin Powell would be which is why I think they are probably on Obama's "A list" for Veeps.

Hillary "No Decision Yet"

Despite millions of votes in the primary, Hillary Clinton appears to be in the small minority of Democrats who think she's got a shot at the Primary, even as Obama has clinched the decision based on current and almost certain totals. In fact by morning more superdelegates will commit to Obama, giving him an even more insurmountable lead in the Primary.

My take is that Hillary is now "running for VP", and her strong speech was basically telling Obama "you need my peeps".

Obama, however, is unlikely to choose Hillary as a running mate based on most reports that suggest the gravity of the Clintons is simply too overwhelming to support her as VP and Bill as ex president in residence.

But hey, we are talking about party politics where ... anything can happen.

It Is Obama

Even as the final state votes come in favoring Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama now has clinched the nomination based on the delegate total after the South Dakota primary.

Clinton is speaking in New York at 9:45 EST but it's still not clear if she will officially concede or wait until later to do so. Clinton's speech is both powerful and intriguing as she's not yet giving a clear indication of her intentions.

We'll know more in a few minutes....

Obama To Clinch Nomination at 10pm EST

It's now *very* clear that Barack Obama will clinch the Democratic nomination within minutes - and probably within seconds - of the close of the polls tonight in Montana at 10 pm EST.

Many superdelegates have already said they'll be committing to Obama at the close of the polls, including some of the most potentially influential superdelegates such as Jimmy Carter and several US Senators.

Hillary Clinton may not concede the race tonight though I'm guessing she will do so, and immediately announce her unqualified support for Obama. Network TV is reporting that Clinton has said she'll accept an Obama VP spot based on conversations with campaign insiders.

Democrats Meet on Michigan and Florida's Fate Soon

Saturday will bring discussion and a probably decision by the Democratic National Committee on how to treat the delegates from Florida and Michigan. Although Clinton has more pledged support in the meeting it appears unlikely that the committee, which I understand had voted earlier to NOT seat these delegates, will now reverse itself. Most likely would seem to be a compromise that will seat some of the delegates. Even seating all of them would not put Clinton over the top, and any major departure from the original gameplan is likely to create a backlash from the superdelegates who can put Obama over the top.

Prediction: Bet on Clinton to get some delegates seated and Obama to win the big show, probably as soon as next week when it appears likely a large block of superdelegates will move to his support based on pressure from the party.

Hillary's Assassination Comment

Hillary Clinton's sound byte sized comment that appeared to suggest one reason to stay in the campaign is that Obama might be assassinated is, as usual, getting hopelessly and stupidly discussed in the media.

*Obviously* she pretty much meant what she said. She meant "shit happens that can affect the campaign dramatically" and it does happen. Both Clinton and Obama almost certainly get threats every day from many sources and unfortunately we live in a violent culture. It's not unreasonable for a person to factor this in to the campaign equation.

However *obviously* this was an inappropriate statement. Discussing assassination in this context only inflames the debate and issues largely irrelevant to the campaign. She let slip a concern any intelligent observer of American politics must consider.

Now media people, let's talk about real issues.

Obama in Iowa "We have returned with a majority of elected delegates"

Barack Obama is speaking in Iowa and getting very close to claiming victory in the Democratic Primary. It's a good strategy to make it much harder for the Clinton campaign to work the Florida and Michigan and Superdelegate angle - an incomprehensible mess left over from a poorly structured primary.

The Obama campaign is keeping up the "hey, we have won this now!" spin as he spoke today in Iowa. He's even cleverly throwing out kudos to Hillary Clinton, lauding her participation and saying he's grateful to her .... and now going on to suggest the party needs unity.

So has he won? Of course not. Obama however has a clear lead in elected delegates, and as we calculated earlier this week even if you assign a generous number of the Florida and Michigan delegates to Clinton she'd still have fewer than Obama. Therefore it's unlikely that the Clinton's will turn as many superdelegates as Obama. Superdelegates will want to go with a winner, so look for a large block of them to soon announce that they are pledging to put Obama over the number needed to win - this could happen as soon as this week. At that point Hillary will very likely drop out so the Democrats can have a unified convention.

Clinton Crushes Obama in Kentucky

As happened in the West Virginia primary Hillary Clinton soundly won today's Kentucky democratic primary with 65% of the vote to Obama's 30%. Clinton must be thinking "oh what a difference an Iowa makes" as she contemplates a strategy that now appears to have failed to gain enough support early in the primaries to carry her on to victory. Although it is not clear that Obama's 11 consecutive victories before Pennsylvania were the key factor in his probably primary victory, I think a combination of strategic errors cost Clinton an election she would have won with a different approach. The key mistakes:

1) Waiting *far* too long to gripe about Florida and Michigan's missing primary votes. Clinton's point is very valid that these states have been disenfranchised. In fact to any clear thinker this is an outrage. Yet I think the Clinton strategy was very foolish, waiting until she was the underdog to complain about this. Now the question is one of fairness to the states who had their votes voided vs fairness to the process of electing which was also seriously compromised here. A revote is the answer, and the Democratic party should fund a new vote unless it can be shown that the outcome would be very unlikely to have an effect on the outcome of the race.

2) Failing to name Obama as her choice for VP after Edwards dropped out of the race. This would have won her superdelegate support and might have turned the tide in some states - most importantly it would have stolen Obama's momentum at a critical time.