Giuliani still leading nationally

Rudy Giuliani is still the clear Republican frontrunner. Here at President Picker we are predicting a Mitt Romney win based on what we predict will be early victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, but this is speculative. In national polls Giuliani is still clearly ahead of Romney, and it's possible the early primaries will not presage any victories in the much larger state primaries that will come later in the season.

What is remarkable is that the decision is now upon us. In only six weeks the primary season begins with the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire primary follows shortly thereafter.

Barack "Tech" Obama at Google

Over at Webguild there is a recap of Barack Obama's talk with Eric Schmidt over at the Googleplex in Silicon Valley. Obama has some good ideas for tech and Lasandra Brill has noted these points by Obama:

Pro Net Neutrality
Technology can bring governmental transparency
Appoint a Chief Technology Officer for the nation
Boadband internet access for all
Digital Privacy Protections
Electronic Health Records

Sounds like a good start!

Why Romney Will Win the Republican Nomination

President Picker predicts that Mitt Romney will soon be the clear front runner in the Republican primaries, and that Romney will go on to win the nomination. There are several key factors that suggest a Romney win:

First, Fred Thompson has not turned out to be the "Ronald Reagan" his supporters insist he is. Thompson generally appears tired and irritated and impatient with the process, which probably goes against much of the grain of his Limousine Hollywood Conservatism. Like Giuliani Thompson carries more than the normal personal baggage of a presidential candidate, and although conservatives are generally very forgiving of any heterosexual personal transgressions of fellow conservatives this challenge takes a toll with voters on the fence.

With McCain now pretty much out of the picture due to his Iraq war support and money problems, Giuliani is Romney's key competition, and Giuliani will prove no match for Romney. Among the many reasons are Romney's (sincere I assume) born again anti abortionist stance which makes it easy for core conservatives to overlook his Mormon religion. Also, Romney is brilliantly downplaying his religion as a factor in the race. Mormonism is controversial, especially among bible belt conservatives, but if Romney can stress his legitimate claim to solid family values and strong religious beliefs he'll be able to successfully continue to downplay the specific beliefs that might offend other conservatives. Clearly his anti abortion stance will trump Giuliani's pro choice stance and clearly this is more of a factor for conservatives than Mormonism.

Lastly and most importantly Romney is the most *presidential looking* of the candidates. Even those of us who claim to maintain impartialy with respect to looks and demeanor .. do not maintain impartiality. Reagan and Clinton were masters at looking and acting presidential, and both got more credit for this than is commonly recognized. As the election heats up and advertising hits national markets, look for Romney to get a boost simply because he looks and acts very presidential.

Democratic Las Vegas Debate

Hilary wins, game over.

The interesting race now among the Democrats is for the Vice Presidential spot. Tonight and before Bill Richardson seems to be the most enthusiastic of the "VP Candidates", but I'd now lean very strongly to guessing Hilary will pick Obama. This will energize the ticket with those who would otherwise be discouraged to see the "old Democratic guard" come back into power and also will allow Hilary to play a far more conservative role in the general election while Obama can be her clear "liberal card". Look for a Clinton Obama ticket.

Giuliani vs Romney and Clinton vs Obama

OK, I think even the probable winners are clear now (Romney and Clinton), but it's very hard to think any of the "third place" folks have much of a chance now. Some suggest we may see a repeat of the democratic primaries where John Kerry came out of early poor shows to capture the nomination, but the ballgame is very, very different now. First, Clinton is the "heir apparent" to the nomination for the Dems, and it would take simply *enormous* political risk not to back her if the campaigns heat up. You don't build up decades of political capital for nothing, and I can hardly see mayors and governors come out of meetings with Bill Clinton telling him they are not going to publicly support Hilary.

Pundits love races, so people like Chris Mathews are enthusiastically hoping for a horserace and overplaying Obama's recent poll successes in Iowa. He's not talking enough about the fact that even if Obama squeaks by with an Iowa win (unlikely), this won't leave him with enough time and money to spend in the upcoming primaries. The "must take Iowa" strategy was probably wise, but I'm guessing from the polls it's taking it's toll on the Obama campaign. If Obama loses in Iowa he's pretty much out. If Obama wins in Iowa it's an enormous uphill struggle to capture votes in even one of the next several primaries. Ergo..... Clinton wins and this will be clear soon. Dems don't want to be fighting when they can be bashing Bush and the Republican nominee.

Next: Why Romney will win the Republican nomination

Obama+Oprah=Obama?

When Oprah, one of the world's most influential entertainment celebrities, announced that she'd be backing Barack Obama in the democratic presidential primary many thought this would be a huge benefit to the Obama campaign. Some seemed to think this was the boost he needed to catch up to Hilary Clinton in the polls.

However Oprah's endorsement didn't do much if anything to lift Obama out of a distant second in the democratic race.

Why? It now seems clear that Oprah's legendary influence does not extend into the political realm. I'm guessing there are two key factors here: First, viewers already have their political minds made up for the most part. They'll take Oprah's advice for books or lifestyle or personal training or (sometimes) for the virtues of dieting, but they simply won't change their mind about "important" things. Also, I'd guess the Oprah democraphic lines up strongly with support for Hilary Clinton and those viewers like Clinton for much the same reasons they like Oprah.

Iowa Caucuses to be held January 3rd, 2008

The caucus and primary sweepstakes continues as Iowa annoucnces it's caucuses will be held January 3rd. New Hampshire is expected to announce dates this week and appears likely to choose January 8th. These decisions mean the earliest primary season in history, and mean we will probably know the democratic and republican candidates very early in the year - perhaps as early as February.

President Picker is very confident that the Democratic nominee will be Hilary Clinton, who leads hugely in the polls and we predict that Mitt Romney will be the Republican primary winner.

Republican Presidential Debate

FOX News hosted a debate among the Republican contenders for the 2008 US Presidential Crown. It is interesting to see how Huckabee as an "up and coming" candidate in the polls and Romney as one of the leaders seemed to be in top form. At one point Tom Tancredo, who has been an outspoken critic of how the other candidates are not conservative enough, stopped to note that he thought all the candidates were men of quality but offered different alternatives.

As in the prior debate I saw, Thompson seems to be failing to address criticisms and seems to be falling back on canned statements rather than possessing the quick wit of a Giuliani, Huckabee, or Paul. Thompson does clearly not have the campaign presence of Ronald Reagan despite the fact he's being billed like that by Republican supporters. I predict this will condemn his campaign after what will likely be lackluster showings in southern states - probably around February or March of 2008.

Despite a standing ovation after John McCain's joke and criticism of Hilary Clinton, his performances lack the "fire" needed to win this race. He was the front runner and failed to consolidate his position early in the race. I actually think age is playing a role with McCain and he simply does not have the energy required for these massively social experiences which involve traveling millions of miles annually and meeting tens of thousands of people every month.

Man to watch here? Mitt Romney. Clearly he's got *all* the others in the stature department, most conspicuously Giuliani who always looks squirrely and shrill in a Romney v Giuliani persona lineup. Contrary to what most of us think about how we evaluate people it's based in large part on the way they look and carry themselves and not on what they say or do. This factor, in my opinion, will trump what seem to be diminishing concerns about Romney's Mormonism.

Prediction: 2008 election will be Romney vs Clinton

The Hilary Hater Factor

It is often suggested that Clinton can't win the election because her "negative" numbers are so high in many polls. Clearly Clinton is probably one of the most negatively viewed presidential candidates in some time, but I think people are mistaking current perception as future perception. George Bush, in addition to winning reelection, had positive perceptions of himself and his presidency until the Iraq war drained his reservoir of goodwill from the electorate. Conversely I think Clinton's solid campaign style, complete with her somewhat extreme personality makeover, will warm enough of her mild critics to prevent her losing on the basis of negative views about her.

Chris Mathews has been even more unstable than usual on Hardball, suggesting today - I think - that he's predicting Hilary will lose to Giuliani due to the negativity with which many perceive her, especially men.

Brownback is out

Republican candidate Sam Brownback has dropped out of the Republican primary. Poor polling numbers and relatively low fundraising has claimed him as a victim - there will be more primary casualties in both parties very soon.

Hilary Clinton on "The View"

Hilary Clinton's speaking with the hosts of the popular daytime women's show "The View". One has to be impressed with how her speaking style has improved to the point of appearing very comfortable, even charming in this very informal, "goofy" format of a TV show that hardly is known for challenging people intellectually.

In fact it's usually hard not to wince at some of the dialog on "The View" that, frankly, rarely does credit to the many brave women worked so hard in the 60's and 70's to bring full rights to American women. But forget all that. They are asking some easy but good questions about torture, Iran, and China. Even veteran interviewer Barbara Walters appears uncomfortable - they all seem to feel uneasy in this unusual role of having the responsibility to ask good, tough, questions of a very smart guest.

This is a very popular show and clearly this is the pulse of how a key constituency will vote. If Clinton can manage to maintain this level of thoughfulness, composure, and strength she'll have no trouble winning the primary. She even seems to be charming the View's token conservative mainstay Elizabeth Hasslebeck, conspicuously seated to the far right of Clinton and almost out of earshot.

New York Times Transcript Analyzer

Wow! Wanna know who spoke the most words in the Democratic debate? ( I assume the Rebublican debate will have this online soon as well). Check out the NYT transcript analysis tool which looks at each candidate, what they said, and counts the words and times. Amazing.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/09/27/us/politics/20070927_DEBATE_GRAPHIC.html#video

Hilary had the most words in the last 9.27 debate...

Al Gore's Nobel is NOT a ticket to a Presidential candidacy.

FOX news must (as usual!) have some odd conservative agenda because they keep bringing up the very unlikely prospect of Al Gore running for the democratic nomination. He won't unless Clinton's campaign melts down, and that appears very unlikely

Of course Gore would like to be president, especially after our bungled 2000 election where he was supposed to *be* the President. This is not at all a partisan statement by me. In fact contrary to what many think the outcome would have been the same (ie a Bush win) even if the Supreme Court had ordered a recount. The Miami Herald had an accounting firm conducte an unbiased complete review of all the ballots and Bush was the winner in that case using the normal 2 chad standard and most other chad based counting standards. So the Supreme court ruling did NOT swing the election. HOWEVER what did swing it was the butterfly ballot fiasco - the product of a Democratic elections official's design folly - that led to huge ballot spoilage which in turn was an overwhelming and key factor in the Bush victory. People wound up accidentally thinking they were voting for Buchanon *and* Gore when they almost certainly would have voted for Gore only if the ballots had been less confusing.

So, the most significant job in the most significant country at one of the most significant times in history went to the loser. Not because of any clever Karl Rove or GWB shenanigans, but simply because our ballot system ... stinks.

So, will Al Gore's Oscar and Peace Prize fuel a candidacy? Nope, but congratulations to him on actually getting to keep the prize.

Republican Presidential Debate - Thompson loses big by not winning.

Is it just me or do the Republicans seem to be simply assuming they have little or no shot in 2008 against Hilary Clinton? Last night's Republican debate was ably hosted by Chris Mathews and Maria Bartiromo, but even the contrived little exchanges between Romney, Giuliani, and Thompson about taxes and acting lacked the enthusiasm and "bite" you'd expect when the stakes are as high as they can be. Romney appeared presidential and that's what really counts. Pundits are looking too deeply at the answers and not enough at the simple gestures. Giuliani has a very long and conservative row to hoe to beat Romney who will gain momentum after what is looking like a big Iowa Victory.

President Picker Verdict: Romney wins Iowa big and will likely win New Hampshire as well. Romney v. Giuliani for the prize.

In fact it's clear to me already that Thompson will probably be out of this race soon - probably after what I predict will be a second to Romney result in Iowa and then a bad showing in New Hampshire and then lackluster showings in the South. Thompson had to come out like a lion and captivate the tried and true Republicans and he has failed to do that. In fact he's not really that captivating at all as a speaker, and loses soundly to Romney in the "Presidential Profile" department.

President Picker Verdict: Thompson gone in 4 months.

John McCain also seems to have lost any steam he had early on. Frankly I think he's just tired of all the BS. His candidacy in 2000 was a huge breath of fresh air and inspired many to rethink politics. But the GW juggernaut put an end to all that and McCain has been a poor mainstream player.

President Picker Verdict: McCain gone in 3 months.

It would seem that so far in the election it's the Democrats leading with livelier discussions and candidates who - at least superficially - appear to have long term visions for the country.

Ironically (or maybe inevitably) we see that discussions of both the leading Democrats and Republicans are steeped in intellectual mediocrity while many provocative and interesting ideas are coming from the fringe candidates like Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich. Like them or not, the founders would have wanted the spirited debaters to thrive in these contests, challenging our American experiment to do what it does best - change in steady and positive ways.

Republican Debate

Tonight, but not live, from that hotbed of the dead and dying part American industrial capitalism - Michigan - comes the Republican Presidential debate starring.....Fred Thompson who makes his first appearance "against" the others Republicans in the race for US President.

The debate is now over but we won't see it until later tonight on MSNBC.

Based on the early Buzz from New York Times and MSNBC (which is commenting on the darn thing and showing clips without running it until tonight!), Fred Thompson is the big loser here, having failed to show equality with the other front runners.

President Picker predicts that Giuliani and Romney will pull close in national polls after the Iowa Primaries which Romney will win.

3rd Quarter Money Results expected soon

Money is the mother's milk of politics, and the 3rd quarter is historically a hard time to raise funds. So observers will be watching the upcoming money results carefully.

Richardson's reported about 5 million in third quarter 2007 and other Democrats and Republicans will be reporting soon.

It's now clear to President Picker that, barring an enormous scandal, Hilary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee in 2008. The Republican race is still up for grabs - President Picker sees Giuliani or Romney as the most likely winners.

CNN political ticker

Democratic Debate - Russert wins!

Democratic Debate - Russert wins!

September 27th, 2007 by JoeDuck
Tim Russert’s questions in the Democratic debate tonight have been simply excellent, trying to get the candidates to make strong statements about various important aspects of American’s future,
The question of the night was to Gravell when Russert asked him about his business bankruptcy history and whether he could run the country better. Gravell, flustered, bragged that he’d basically only hurt the credit card companies. Gravell had no chance but I’d say this single question effectively killed his credibility.
Clinton, the clear leader, has been artfully dodging several of the complex questions. This is a good strategy for the leader to avoid creating “hit points” for other candidates to point to as the campaign heats up.
But with respect to “heating up” it looks like it ain’t gonna happen with the Dems. I think Edwards is close, and Obama is already running for Vice President with a Clinton candidacy.

Presidential Question Mashup - clever!

Yahoo's got an excellent way to compare answers from the Democratic presidential candidates (I think they'll have one for the Republicans also eventually). It's called the Presidential Mashup
and is working within the debate system. Check it out.

Thompson v Giuliani?

Fred Thompson just entered the race but is already a co-frontrunner in the national polls for the Republican nomination. President Picker still thinks that Mitt Romney will leap past both of these candidates after the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries in which Romney is doing very well thanks to a very aggressive campaign in those states.

That said, Thompson is clearly representing traditional Republican values where Giuliani sports a powerful "new Republican" message. It's going to be a fun race to watch.

Fred Thompson declares he's in the race for President

Tonight on the Tonight Show with Jay Leno Fred Thompson is declaring his candidacy for the Presidency of these United States. Newsweek's "Lazy like a Fox" byline comes to mind as Thompson talks slowly and in very general terms about his late candidacy, the other men in the Republican Race, and the Presidency.

My take is that Romney will soon be a fairly clear favorite over Thompson though Thompson's more conservative record and talk may keep him very viable as the Republican "on the right" in this race.