John Edwards stealing the show

As the conventions approach - events that will more clearly than anything shape the coming battle in November for the presidency - it is the John Edwards sex and alleged payola scandal that has grabbed most of the headlines.

Rather than signalling a willingness to undermine the Democratic primary process, I'd suggest that Edwards, having failed to capture a significant shot at winning, tired of the process, leading him to succomb to the moral lapses that are now making headlines.

More significant than the affair - at least in terms of legality and credibility - are what appear to be hush payments. Although I doubt Edwards was involved in these you can make a case he bears more responsibility here than he appears willing to take on.

This episode may be good news for Obama, who has the lead and more than anything simply needs to just keep on keeping on. McCain, on the other hand, needs to either grab the spotlight or shine it on Obama problems. Edwards is keeping that from happening, and thus may have an interesting impact on our attention deficit political process.

Scratch Edwards out of Veepstakes

Today John Edwards admitted his affair with a filmmaker who (later?) worked for his campaign making commercials.

Edwards' wife Elizabeth's cancer was a significant issue in the campaign and this indiscretion is magnified by the fact that many who admired the courageousness of her campaigning in the midst of a cancer battle will be particularly upset by Edwards' infidelity. Of course campaigns, sex, lies, and videotape are all intertwined in complex ways in American politics so it is possible this matter was already known to Elizabeth, as Bill Clinton's many dalliances were well known to Hillary even as she helped him imply there was little or no foundation to the rumors.

This unsavory story certainly destroys any chance Edwards has of becoming Obama's VP.
Fair or not, stories like this are political suicide.

John Edwards Endorses Obama

John Edwards has endorsed Barack Obama in what may be considered another sign of Clinton's diminishing chances at the nomination. Coming strategically a day after Clinton's huge victory in the WV primary, Edwards will shift media focus away from that thorn in Obama's side.

Watching the two stand together on stage waving and hearing Edwards say "we" a lot in his speech, I got the idea he's on the *very* short list for VP. As a populist southerner Edwards would appeal to the block of southern democrats who are not showing much support for Obama.

John Edwards drops out of Democratic Primary

In a move that has surprised many pundits, John Edwards has dropped out of the democratic race. In New Orleans he said that Obama and Clinton had both pledged to make ending poverty a key cause of their campaigns:

"they will make ending poverty central to their campaign for the presidency."
"This is the cause of my life and I now have their commitment to engage in this cause,"

It's not clear how much Edwards support will flow to Clinton and Obama though the next set of tracking polls should be very interesting. I'd wildly guess it'll split about equally between Clinton and Obama.

Dick Morris was suggesting that the Florida results indicated Obama is moving up fast on Clinton, citing the fact that those who made a last minute decision were split between the two where earlier deciders went for Clinton. I'm not clear he's got the math right on this however, since this tell us something about "last minute deciders" rather than about the broader electorate. He felt this was like a tracking poll trending strongly in Obama's favor, but I think that is not mathematically sound reasoning.

Kucinich out

Democratic Presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich has dropped out of the race. Lackluster poll numbers combined with a recent legal confrontation with MSNBC which fought hard to keep Kucinich out of the recent Democratic Debate. The New York Times reports on that conflict, where MSNBC wanted to exclude Kucinich after earlier invites and Kucinich arguing that this was a breach of contract. Initially the ruling was in Kucinich's favor, but appeared at last minute to be overtuned by legal appeal.

This leaves the democratics with three candidates: Clinton, Edwards, and Obama. Although Clinton still leads nationally Obama is now poised to win Saturday's South Carolina debate which may edge him even closer to polling parity with Clinton as we move into what may prove to be the definitive day in the election: February 5.

Michigan results shortly. Kucinich may debate after all.

The Michigan primary results will be in shortly. For the Dems this is almost a non-event due to national party penalties which are not going to count Michigan votes. Only Clinton is on the ballot, she will "win" handily, but get no delegates for the nomination.

The Republican Michigan vote is far more significant. Romney arguably must win the state of Michigan - where he and his wife grew up - to demonstrate his national viability. Polls show Romney and McCain in a close race.

Tonights Democratic Debate in Las Vegas was originally to feature Dennis Kucinich but poor showings were to leave him out. However a judge ruled today that Kucinich must either speak or the judge may order an injunction to stop the debate altogether. Look for Kucinich to be included at the last minute.

Giuliani released from MO hospital and is OK, Tancredo drops out of race.

Rudy Giuliani was hospitalized yesterday with flu-like symptoms. He's been released from the Missouri hospital and CNN is reporting he has a "clean bill of health", but they don't seem to have much information.

Although there is no reason to believe Giuliani's problems have anything to do with his past cancer, it's clear that health issues could impact this election more than most. John Edwards wife had cancer as did Giuliani, and it is reasonable to wonder what effect a health flare-up would have on these campaigns.

Donny Deutsch on Christmas Ads

Advertising expert Donny Deutsch was hard on most of the Christmas campaign advertising, suggesting much of it is a waste of time or not really "on message" for the candidates.

I agreed with some of Deutsch's analyses but disagreed with his criticism of the Obama ad, which I'd argue is simply brilliant. Giuliani ridiculously offers off camera people fruitcakes and sits beside a fake santa. Edwards simply offers a short campaign pitch. Clinton is wrapping presents like "National Pre-K" and "Health Care". Not terrible, but smells insincere which is a key Clinton challenge.

The two "stand out" ads are that of Huckabee, which somewhat spookily features a shelf filmed to look like a cross behind the candidate - almost as if they are sending a secret signal to the minions waiting in the wings for a messianic candidate. Deutsch stopped just short of calling this ad out as a dangerous sign of trends in American politics, but indicated he was alarmed by this type of symbolism.

The great ad is Obama's. His picture perfect family sits beside a tree as Michelle wishes everybody well. Obama then suggests it's time to come together rather than apart, and his family almost frames this concept in a greeting card way with the daughters wishing us all happy holidays. Schmalzy? Maybe, but this ad is a brilliant example of reaching the people you want in the way they want to be reached. Obama needs women to vote for him, not Hilary. This is a huge challenge that his campaign is meeting masterfully with Oprah and ads like this.

Democratic Debate in Iowa

The Democratic Iowa debate - the last before the caucuses - wrapped up without any major gaffes, though the focus groups seemed to be much more favorable to Obama and Edwards than Hilary Clinton.

Clinton certainly did not stand out the way she had in earlier debates, and as is often the case new "frontrunner" Obama seemed more poised and confident than he had in the earlier encounters.

Compared to the Republicans the democratic crew was downright sympathetic to each other. When the moderator asked a pointed question about Biden and some comments that could have been interpreted as prejudiced, Obama chimed in with an unqualified endorsement of Biden's history as a strongly pro civil rights candidate. Although I don't think it was contrived, I think this played very well with the audience.

Edwards continued to hammer home his populist notion that the rich and powerful are now in control and need to be taken out of control.

Democratic Debate

The Democratic debate in New Hampshire is featuring:
Hilary Clinton, John Edwards, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Bill Richardson, and Chris Dodd, and Mike Gravel.

Over at USA Today they are live blogging the debate

The questions so far seem to focus on the basic American concerns of Iraq, Gas Prices, leadership, etc.

Unless I'm mistaken Hilary has been

CNN John King's highlight: Iraq disputes between Obama, Edwards, Clinton, Biden. Iraq as "the driving debate" in the left wing of the party. Larry King: "A lively 65 minutes" John Edwards with a strong presentation. Candy Crowley: Edwards is trying to "draw blood from the top candidates" Obama and Clinton. Hilary, in turn, trying to 'stay above the fray' as the front runner.

First Democratic Presidential Debate

I missed blogging the Democratic Debate but will return with comments. Who would have thought that the races would begin so early?