It is often suggested that Clinton can't win the election because her "negative" numbers are so high in many polls. Clearly Clinton is probably one of the most negatively viewed presidential candidates in some time, but I think people are mistaking current perception as future perception. George Bush, in addition to winning reelection, had positive perceptions of himself and his presidency until the Iraq war drained his reservoir of goodwill from the electorate. Conversely I think Clinton's solid campaign style, complete with her somewhat extreme personality makeover, will warm enough of her mild critics to prevent her losing on the basis of negative views about her.
Chris Mathews has been even more unstable than usual on Hardball, suggesting today - I think - that he's predicting Hilary will lose to Giuliani due to the negativity with which many perceive her, especially men.
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Brownback is out
Republican candidate Sam Brownback has dropped out of the Republican primary. Poor polling numbers and relatively low fundraising has claimed him as a victim - there will be more primary casualties in both parties very soon.
Monday, October 15, 2007
Hilary Clinton on "The View"
Hilary Clinton's speaking with the hosts of the popular daytime women's show "The View". One has to be impressed with how her speaking style has improved to the point of appearing very comfortable, even charming in this very informal, "goofy" format of a TV show that hardly is known for challenging people intellectually.
In fact it's usually hard not to wince at some of the dialog on "The View" that, frankly, rarely does credit to the many brave women worked so hard in the 60's and 70's to bring full rights to American women. But forget all that. They are asking some easy but good questions about torture, Iran, and China. Even veteran interviewer Barbara Walters appears uncomfortable - they all seem to feel uneasy in this unusual role of having the responsibility to ask good, tough, questions of a very smart guest.
This is a very popular show and clearly this is the pulse of how a key constituency will vote. If Clinton can manage to maintain this level of thoughfulness, composure, and strength she'll have no trouble winning the primary. She even seems to be charming the View's token conservative mainstay Elizabeth Hasslebeck, conspicuously seated to the far right of Clinton and almost out of earshot.
In fact it's usually hard not to wince at some of the dialog on "The View" that, frankly, rarely does credit to the many brave women worked so hard in the 60's and 70's to bring full rights to American women. But forget all that. They are asking some easy but good questions about torture, Iran, and China. Even veteran interviewer Barbara Walters appears uncomfortable - they all seem to feel uneasy in this unusual role of having the responsibility to ask good, tough, questions of a very smart guest.
This is a very popular show and clearly this is the pulse of how a key constituency will vote. If Clinton can manage to maintain this level of thoughfulness, composure, and strength she'll have no trouble winning the primary. She even seems to be charming the View's token conservative mainstay Elizabeth Hasslebeck, conspicuously seated to the far right of Clinton and almost out of earshot.
Saturday, October 13, 2007
New York Times Transcript Analyzer
Wow! Wanna know who spoke the most words in the Democratic debate? ( I assume the Rebublican debate will have this online soon as well). Check out the NYT transcript analysis tool which looks at each candidate, what they said, and counts the words and times. Amazing.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/09/27/us/politics/20070927_DEBATE_GRAPHIC.html#video
Hilary had the most words in the last 9.27 debate...
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/09/27/us/politics/20070927_DEBATE_GRAPHIC.html#video
Hilary had the most words in the last 9.27 debate...
Friday, October 12, 2007
Al Gore's Nobel is NOT a ticket to a Presidential candidacy.
FOX news must (as usual!) have some odd conservative agenda because they keep bringing up the very unlikely prospect of Al Gore running for the democratic nomination. He won't unless Clinton's campaign melts down, and that appears very unlikely
Of course Gore would like to be president, especially after our bungled 2000 election where he was supposed to *be* the President. This is not at all a partisan statement by me. In fact contrary to what many think the outcome would have been the same (ie a Bush win) even if the Supreme Court had ordered a recount. The Miami Herald had an accounting firm conducte an unbiased complete review of all the ballots and Bush was the winner in that case using the normal 2 chad standard and most other chad based counting standards. So the Supreme court ruling did NOT swing the election. HOWEVER what did swing it was the butterfly ballot fiasco - the product of a Democratic elections official's design folly - that led to huge ballot spoilage which in turn was an overwhelming and key factor in the Bush victory. People wound up accidentally thinking they were voting for Buchanon *and* Gore when they almost certainly would have voted for Gore only if the ballots had been less confusing.
So, the most significant job in the most significant country at one of the most significant times in history went to the loser. Not because of any clever Karl Rove or GWB shenanigans, but simply because our ballot system ... stinks.
So, will Al Gore's Oscar and Peace Prize fuel a candidacy? Nope, but congratulations to him on actually getting to keep the prize.
Of course Gore would like to be president, especially after our bungled 2000 election where he was supposed to *be* the President. This is not at all a partisan statement by me. In fact contrary to what many think the outcome would have been the same (ie a Bush win) even if the Supreme Court had ordered a recount. The Miami Herald had an accounting firm conducte an unbiased complete review of all the ballots and Bush was the winner in that case using the normal 2 chad standard and most other chad based counting standards. So the Supreme court ruling did NOT swing the election. HOWEVER what did swing it was the butterfly ballot fiasco - the product of a Democratic elections official's design folly - that led to huge ballot spoilage which in turn was an overwhelming and key factor in the Bush victory. People wound up accidentally thinking they were voting for Buchanon *and* Gore when they almost certainly would have voted for Gore only if the ballots had been less confusing.
So, the most significant job in the most significant country at one of the most significant times in history went to the loser. Not because of any clever Karl Rove or GWB shenanigans, but simply because our ballot system ... stinks.
So, will Al Gore's Oscar and Peace Prize fuel a candidacy? Nope, but congratulations to him on actually getting to keep the prize.
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Republican Presidential Debate - Thompson loses big by not winning.
Is it just me or do the Republicans seem to be simply assuming they have little or no shot in 2008 against Hilary Clinton? Last night's Republican debate was ably hosted by Chris Mathews and Maria Bartiromo, but even the contrived little exchanges between Romney, Giuliani, and Thompson about taxes and acting lacked the enthusiasm and "bite" you'd expect when the stakes are as high as they can be. Romney appeared presidential and that's what really counts. Pundits are looking too deeply at the answers and not enough at the simple gestures. Giuliani has a very long and conservative row to hoe to beat Romney who will gain momentum after what is looking like a big Iowa Victory.
President Picker Verdict: Romney wins Iowa big and will likely win New Hampshire as well. Romney v. Giuliani for the prize.
In fact it's clear to me already that Thompson will probably be out of this race soon - probably after what I predict will be a second to Romney result in Iowa and then a bad showing in New Hampshire and then lackluster showings in the South. Thompson had to come out like a lion and captivate the tried and true Republicans and he has failed to do that. In fact he's not really that captivating at all as a speaker, and loses soundly to Romney in the "Presidential Profile" department.
President Picker Verdict: Thompson gone in 4 months.
John McCain also seems to have lost any steam he had early on. Frankly I think he's just tired of all the BS. His candidacy in 2000 was a huge breath of fresh air and inspired many to rethink politics. But the GW juggernaut put an end to all that and McCain has been a poor mainstream player.
President Picker Verdict: McCain gone in 3 months.
It would seem that so far in the election it's the Democrats leading with livelier discussions and candidates who - at least superficially - appear to have long term visions for the country.
Ironically (or maybe inevitably) we see that discussions of both the leading Democrats and Republicans are steeped in intellectual mediocrity while many provocative and interesting ideas are coming from the fringe candidates like Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich. Like them or not, the founders would have wanted the spirited debaters to thrive in these contests, challenging our American experiment to do what it does best - change in steady and positive ways.
President Picker Verdict: Romney wins Iowa big and will likely win New Hampshire as well. Romney v. Giuliani for the prize.
In fact it's clear to me already that Thompson will probably be out of this race soon - probably after what I predict will be a second to Romney result in Iowa and then a bad showing in New Hampshire and then lackluster showings in the South. Thompson had to come out like a lion and captivate the tried and true Republicans and he has failed to do that. In fact he's not really that captivating at all as a speaker, and loses soundly to Romney in the "Presidential Profile" department.
President Picker Verdict: Thompson gone in 4 months.
John McCain also seems to have lost any steam he had early on. Frankly I think he's just tired of all the BS. His candidacy in 2000 was a huge breath of fresh air and inspired many to rethink politics. But the GW juggernaut put an end to all that and McCain has been a poor mainstream player.
President Picker Verdict: McCain gone in 3 months.
It would seem that so far in the election it's the Democrats leading with livelier discussions and candidates who - at least superficially - appear to have long term visions for the country.
Ironically (or maybe inevitably) we see that discussions of both the leading Democrats and Republicans are steeped in intellectual mediocrity while many provocative and interesting ideas are coming from the fringe candidates like Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich. Like them or not, the founders would have wanted the spirited debaters to thrive in these contests, challenging our American experiment to do what it does best - change in steady and positive ways.
Tuesday, October 09, 2007
Republican Debate
Tonight, but not live, from that hotbed of the dead and dying part American industrial capitalism - Michigan - comes the Republican Presidential debate starring.....Fred Thompson who makes his first appearance "against" the others Republicans in the race for US President.
The debate is now over but we won't see it until later tonight on MSNBC.
Based on the early Buzz from New York Times and MSNBC (which is commenting on the darn thing and showing clips without running it until tonight!), Fred Thompson is the big loser here, having failed to show equality with the other front runners.
President Picker predicts that Giuliani and Romney will pull close in national polls after the Iowa Primaries which Romney will win.
The debate is now over but we won't see it until later tonight on MSNBC.
Based on the early Buzz from New York Times and MSNBC (which is commenting on the darn thing and showing clips without running it until tonight!), Fred Thompson is the big loser here, having failed to show equality with the other front runners.
President Picker predicts that Giuliani and Romney will pull close in national polls after the Iowa Primaries which Romney will win.
Sunday, September 30, 2007
3rd Quarter Money Results expected soon
Money is the mother's milk of politics, and the 3rd quarter is historically a hard time to raise funds. So observers will be watching the upcoming money results carefully.
Richardson's reported about 5 million in third quarter 2007 and other Democrats and Republicans will be reporting soon.
It's now clear to President Picker that, barring an enormous scandal, Hilary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee in 2008. The Republican race is still up for grabs - President Picker sees Giuliani or Romney as the most likely winners.
CNN political ticker
Richardson's reported about 5 million in third quarter 2007 and other Democrats and Republicans will be reporting soon.
It's now clear to President Picker that, barring an enormous scandal, Hilary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee in 2008. The Republican race is still up for grabs - President Picker sees Giuliani or Romney as the most likely winners.
CNN political ticker
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Democratic Debate - Russert wins!
Democratic Debate - Russert wins!
September 27th, 2007 by JoeDuck
Tim Russert’s questions in the Democratic debate tonight have been simply excellent, trying to get the candidates to make strong statements about various important aspects of American’s future,
The question of the night was to Gravell when Russert asked him about his business bankruptcy history and whether he could run the country better. Gravell, flustered, bragged that he’d basically only hurt the credit card companies. Gravell had no chance but I’d say this single question effectively killed his credibility.
Clinton, the clear leader, has been artfully dodging several of the complex questions. This is a good strategy for the leader to avoid creating “hit points” for other candidates to point to as the campaign heats up.
But with respect to “heating up” it looks like it ain’t gonna happen with the Dems. I think Edwards is close, and Obama is already running for Vice President with a Clinton candidacy.
September 27th, 2007 by JoeDuck
Tim Russert’s questions in the Democratic debate tonight have been simply excellent, trying to get the candidates to make strong statements about various important aspects of American’s future,
The question of the night was to Gravell when Russert asked him about his business bankruptcy history and whether he could run the country better. Gravell, flustered, bragged that he’d basically only hurt the credit card companies. Gravell had no chance but I’d say this single question effectively killed his credibility.
Clinton, the clear leader, has been artfully dodging several of the complex questions. This is a good strategy for the leader to avoid creating “hit points” for other candidates to point to as the campaign heats up.
But with respect to “heating up” it looks like it ain’t gonna happen with the Dems. I think Edwards is close, and Obama is already running for Vice President with a Clinton candidacy.
Monday, September 24, 2007
Presidential Question Mashup - clever!
Yahoo's got an excellent way to compare answers from the Democratic presidential candidates (I think they'll have one for the Republicans also eventually). It's called the Presidential Mashup
and is working within the debate system. Check it out.
and is working within the debate system. Check it out.
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Thompson v Giuliani?
Fred Thompson just entered the race but is already a co-frontrunner in the national polls for the Republican nomination. President Picker still thinks that Mitt Romney will leap past both of these candidates after the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries in which Romney is doing very well thanks to a very aggressive campaign in those states.
That said, Thompson is clearly representing traditional Republican values where Giuliani sports a powerful "new Republican" message. It's going to be a fun race to watch.
That said, Thompson is clearly representing traditional Republican values where Giuliani sports a powerful "new Republican" message. It's going to be a fun race to watch.
Thursday, September 06, 2007
Fred Thompson declares he's in the race for President
Tonight on the Tonight Show with Jay Leno Fred Thompson is declaring his candidacy for the Presidency of these United States. Newsweek's "Lazy like a Fox" byline comes to mind as Thompson talks slowly and in very general terms about his late candidacy, the other men in the Republican Race, and the Presidency.
My take is that Romney will soon be a fairly clear favorite over Thompson though Thompson's more conservative record and talk may keep him very viable as the Republican "on the right" in this race.
My take is that Romney will soon be a fairly clear favorite over Thompson though Thompson's more conservative record and talk may keep him very viable as the Republican "on the right" in this race.
Wednesday, September 05, 2007
Presidential Polls
This site has a GREAT summary of many presidential polls for the 2008 election.
On the Democratic side it's pretty clear that Hilary Clinton will be the nominee. My take is that even with a minor scandal or major gaff Hilary would withstand anything Obama could throw her way, and he's shown himself to be inexperienced enough to scare away the core Democrats that are essential to a 2008 victory. Hilary could be derailed with a major scandal but it seems unlikely there are any big skeletons in the Clinton closet or we'd have seem them "outed" by now as the New Hampshire and Iowa primaries loom, perhaps within a few months.
The Republican field is still wide open in my opinion, though Mitt Romney would seem to be the likely winner of the Republican Primary. Giuliani is also a possibility but his record, quirky style, and personal baggage seem to me an overwhelming liability when competing against more mainstream Republican candidates. Thompson is more along the lines of the traditional Republican conservative but in this election that may actually be seen as a liability by moderate Republicans. Also, his young and beautiful wife, combined with recent sex scandals on the Republican side, could be a liability for a candidate who will have to play the "family values" card to be viable with the core Republican constituency, especially against Romney's squeaky cleanness. McCain has all but fallen victim to his combination of Iraq War support and several election gaffes. The media, once enamored with McCain's honest and freewheeling style, seems to have tired of him and this is almost a death sentence for a politician.
On the Democratic side it's pretty clear that Hilary Clinton will be the nominee. My take is that even with a minor scandal or major gaff Hilary would withstand anything Obama could throw her way, and he's shown himself to be inexperienced enough to scare away the core Democrats that are essential to a 2008 victory. Hilary could be derailed with a major scandal but it seems unlikely there are any big skeletons in the Clinton closet or we'd have seem them "outed" by now as the New Hampshire and Iowa primaries loom, perhaps within a few months.
The Republican field is still wide open in my opinion, though Mitt Romney would seem to be the likely winner of the Republican Primary. Giuliani is also a possibility but his record, quirky style, and personal baggage seem to me an overwhelming liability when competing against more mainstream Republican candidates. Thompson is more along the lines of the traditional Republican conservative but in this election that may actually be seen as a liability by moderate Republicans. Also, his young and beautiful wife, combined with recent sex scandals on the Republican side, could be a liability for a candidate who will have to play the "family values" card to be viable with the core Republican constituency, especially against Romney's squeaky cleanness. McCain has all but fallen victim to his combination of Iraq War support and several election gaffes. The media, once enamored with McCain's honest and freewheeling style, seems to have tired of him and this is almost a death sentence for a politician.
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
President Picker not needed
I'm rethinking this blog in light of the simply overwhelming amount of information flowing about the current presidential campaign.
I think mainstream news ignorance and "news fatigue" has killed most of the quality details about the hugely significant stories of our time - for example the culture clashes of the "European/American" vs the Moslem world, the Iraq War, Israel, Poverty, Aids, Global health.
CNN and FOX on TV and some print news is replacing the important stuff with stories bout spats between candidates, the fairly inane YouTube Democratic debate, and other weak examinations of the candidates.
Hey, maybe this IS needed because at the least I can try to address how the candidates would deal with real issues rather than focusing on the imaginary, silly, spin issues?
CNN Ticker
I think mainstream news ignorance and "news fatigue" has killed most of the quality details about the hugely significant stories of our time - for example the culture clashes of the "European/American" vs the Moslem world, the Iraq War, Israel, Poverty, Aids, Global health.
CNN and FOX on TV and some print news is replacing the important stuff with stories bout spats between candidates, the fairly inane YouTube Democratic debate, and other weak examinations of the candidates.
Hey, maybe this IS needed because at the least I can try to address how the candidates would deal with real issues rather than focusing on the imaginary, silly, spin issues?
CNN Ticker
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Online Advertising in Presidential campaigns is trivial
Here's a great summary of online ad spending by the presidential candidates except for the fact that it does not note how trivial thee levels of exposure is even for McCain who ran the most impressions.
Clinton, with under a million impressions, is spending perhaps a ten thousand total.
This low spend indicates that the online marketing people are very challenged with this new media. A spend of million dollars online would saturate the online world with the message because you don't need much targeting for a prez campaign.
Maybe they are holding back for strategic reasons but I'm guessing that they just don't get it. Big firms continue to dominate the "thinking" about how to run online campaigns, and big firms consistently have their clients waste money on foolish and stylish high CPM image based advertising rather than dramtically cheaper and more strategic pay per click and cheap image campaigns. There is a huge amount of inventory available online for massive branding campaigns like a candidate needs.
Unlike other products where you need a lot of targeting, a candidate for national office generally wants to talk to *everybody*. Even kids can have an indirect impact on election politics.
Given the jaw dropping sums about to be spent, I think we'll see the smart candidates work a lot more with online though agency ignorance of online marketing strategy may prevail in this realm.
Clinton, with under a million impressions, is spending perhaps a ten thousand total.
This low spend indicates that the online marketing people are very challenged with this new media. A spend of million dollars online would saturate the online world with the message because you don't need much targeting for a prez campaign.
Maybe they are holding back for strategic reasons but I'm guessing that they just don't get it. Big firms continue to dominate the "thinking" about how to run online campaigns, and big firms consistently have their clients waste money on foolish and stylish high CPM image based advertising rather than dramtically cheaper and more strategic pay per click and cheap image campaigns. There is a huge amount of inventory available online for massive branding campaigns like a candidate needs.
Unlike other products where you need a lot of targeting, a candidate for national office generally wants to talk to *everybody*. Even kids can have an indirect impact on election politics.
Given the jaw dropping sums about to be spent, I think we'll see the smart candidates work a lot more with online though agency ignorance of online marketing strategy may prevail in this realm.
Wednesday, July 04, 2007
Fact Checking from Annenberg Project
FactCheck.org is part of University of PA's Annenberg Project and is a helpful site if you want to follow up on campaign claims by candidates as well as other facts in question by the media.
Check it out and check those facts!
Check it out and check those facts!
Tuesday, July 03, 2007
The best campaigns money can buy
The 2008 Presidential primaries are still far away but the money trains for the top candidates are steaming ahead full speed. Each quarter seems to bring a new campaign finance record, and quarterly totals for the candidates would have run *entire presidential campaigns* in all but about the past decade. Compete.com has a great article about how online strategy could affect the election combined with some numbers reflecting support.
Sunday, July 01, 2007
Clinton and Obama consolidate financial support in second quarter
The Hilary Clinton political juggernaut continues to move along powerfully, making it increasingly unlikely that a serious challenge to her candidacy will emerge. Obama's exceptional results raising money, outpacing Clinton in the second quarter of this year, have not translated into competitive poll numbers, though the race is still in very early stages.
One take is that Obama's enthusiastic early support seems to be transitioning from mainstream voters to a sort of "Obama fan club" that in some ways may even diminish his candidacy. The recent video "I've Got a Crush on Obama" is probably not the kind of online social networking that ultimately will favor Obama.
One take is that Obama's enthusiastic early support seems to be transitioning from mainstream voters to a sort of "Obama fan club" that in some ways may even diminish his candidacy. The recent video "I've Got a Crush on Obama" is probably not the kind of online social networking that ultimately will favor Obama.
McCain Cash Flow troubles
The McCain campaign is clearly languishing, probably due to McCain's unpopular war stance but I also think because he has failed to capture the imagination of voters the way he did in past campaigns.
Given the low level of poll support (under 10% support among Republicans) it will be increasingly difficult to get donations and keep fueling the effort. I'm not even convinced he's really in this "to win" anymore.
Given the low level of poll support (under 10% support among Republicans) it will be increasingly difficult to get donations and keep fueling the effort. I'm not even convinced he's really in this "to win" anymore.
Romney's Dog and Romney blog
An absurd story about Mitt Romney and "animal abuse" has remarkable news traction as it appears to be hopelessly misreported, especially the time frame (I thought this happened last week until I read the details!). The Romney family *over twenty years ago* had a dog that enjoyed riding in a kennel strapped to the roof of the family car. "Forcing" the dog to ride on the roof has been implied where it seems a lot more likely that the dog, Seamus, liked to ride on the roof during family trips.
This is probably an example of some sort of odd "hit job" by opponents.
Anne Romney addresses this over at the Romney blog, though probably too weakly given the attention this continues to get on TV, Time Magazine, and elsewhere. Stories like this are things people can emotionally latch onto and it's important that the campaign at least does more to point out the absurdity of the allegations of animal abuse. Even Tucker Carlson said that Romney's probably "lost his vote"!
This is probably an example of some sort of odd "hit job" by opponents.
Anne Romney addresses this over at the Romney blog, though probably too weakly given the attention this continues to get on TV, Time Magazine, and elsewhere. Stories like this are things people can emotionally latch onto and it's important that the campaign at least does more to point out the absurdity of the allegations of animal abuse. Even Tucker Carlson said that Romney's probably "lost his vote"!
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