The Maine Republican Caucuses were today and Mitt Romney is the big winner with about 52% of the vote after 57% of the precincts have reported.
The media attention has focused now almost entirely on Tuesday's mega primary event and the national polls, where McCain and Clinton appear to have the election won. However few are ready to totally count out Romney or Obama.
Hey, it's sort of like the Superbowl. Patriots looking like the winners, but nobody wants to bet their life on it.
Saturday, February 02, 2008
Clinton, McCain, Romney, Obama vie for the big prize
It is not clear that Tuesday's mega election event will bring clear primary winners but certainly it'll bring a lot of excitement to the US Presidential campaign.
Most pundits are predicting a McCain win for the Republicans but many won't pick a winner in the Clinton Obama race, which polls indicate may be tightening over this last week. Obama took in a spectacular 30+ million dollars in January. Only McCain appears somewhat strapped for cash as we head into the time when candidates are spending millions every day to spread their word to a national audience. I'm guessing Romney will have a superbowl ad and perhaps others as well, though even massive TV time seems unlikely to have a huge impact this late in the game. That said, many voters make up their mind in the last days or even minutes of the election. In that case it would not hurt to have made a positive impact on Sunday.
Most pundits are predicting a McCain win for the Republicans but many won't pick a winner in the Clinton Obama race, which polls indicate may be tightening over this last week. Obama took in a spectacular 30+ million dollars in January. Only McCain appears somewhat strapped for cash as we head into the time when candidates are spending millions every day to spread their word to a national audience. I'm guessing Romney will have a superbowl ad and perhaps others as well, though even massive TV time seems unlikely to have a huge impact this late in the game. That said, many voters make up their mind in the last days or even minutes of the election. In that case it would not hurt to have made a positive impact on Sunday.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Arnold Schwarzenegger will endorse John McCain
Popular California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will endorse John McCain, probably this week. This comes at a critical time in the Republican primary and with only Romney and McCain left as serious candidates. Although Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee remain in the race neither of them is polling at anything like the levels of McCain and Romney, or can run enough ads to turn things around in time for "Super Tuesday" when many states will cast votes.
Despite what most felt was a strong debate performance last night, Romney's chances appear to be dimming as John McCain scoops up more prominent endorsments. There is some confusion right now as to Romney's campaign spending plans - some reports suggest he'll have a major media push in California and perhaps nationally but others say his national spend will be modest, perhaps an acknowledgement that McCain is looking like the likely nominee.
Despite what most felt was a strong debate performance last night, Romney's chances appear to be dimming as John McCain scoops up more prominent endorsments. There is some confusion right now as to Romney's campaign spending plans - some reports suggest he'll have a major media push in California and perhaps nationally but others say his national spend will be modest, perhaps an acknowledgement that McCain is looking like the likely nominee.
Arnold Schwarzenegger will endorse John McCain
Popular California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will endorse John McCain, probably this week. This comes at a critical time in the Republican primary and with only Romney and McCain left as serious candidates. Although Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee remain in the race neither of them is polling at anything like the levels of McCain and Romney, or can run enough ads to turn things around in time for "Super Tuesday" when many states will cast votes.
Despite what most felt was a strong debate performance last night, Romney's chances appear to be dimming as John McCain scoops up more prominent endorsments. There is some confusion right now as to Romney's campaign spending plans - some reports suggest he'll have a major media push in California and perhaps nationally but others say his national spend will be modest, perhaps an acknowledgement that McCain is looking like the likely nominee.
Schwarzenegger
Despite what most felt was a strong debate performance last night, Romney's chances appear to be dimming as John McCain scoops up more prominent endorsments. There is some confusion right now as to Romney's campaign spending plans - some reports suggest he'll have a major media push in California and perhaps nationally but others say his national spend will be modest, perhaps an acknowledgement that McCain is looking like the likely nominee.
Schwarzenegger
Twitter the President? Nope.
Tech President wonders if Twitter could be the breakout technology for the 2008 Election.
Ummm - no. No way. Twitter has far too few participants to matter in a national election. Sure it should be part of a social media strategy - probably more so than the weak current usage I've seen from several campaigns using proxys to submit for their candidates as twitterees, but only Myspace and Facebook have the huge national reach that would make them worth a lot of attention by a candidate.
Ummm - no. No way. Twitter has far too few participants to matter in a national election. Sure it should be part of a social media strategy - probably more so than the weak current usage I've seen from several campaigns using proxys to submit for their candidates as twitterees, but only Myspace and Facebook have the huge national reach that would make them worth a lot of attention by a candidate.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Is Nader Nuts?
Ralph Nader:
John Edwards, the banner of Democratic Party populism, is dropping out, and Dennis Kucinich dropped out earlier, so in terms of voters who are at least interested in having major areas of injustice, depravations, and solutions discussed in a presidential campaign, they might be interested in my exploratory effort...
I'd suggest there is no way Nader could even reach the pitiful support levels of Dennis Kucinich, and Nader's bizarre notion that he can is yet another indication of his failing mental coherence and relevance to the national political scene.
Nader is correct that the old style populism embraced by Edwards and pseudo-socialist economics embraced by Kucinich match Nader's odd worldview, but I don't think Nader understands the degree to which his former support base has eroded, and also the strategic errors he made by failing to negotiate a deal with Al Gore - a deal that would have made Gore the president in 2000 and could have given Nader huge influence in certain areas.
John Edwards, the banner of Democratic Party populism, is dropping out, and Dennis Kucinich dropped out earlier, so in terms of voters who are at least interested in having major areas of injustice, depravations, and solutions discussed in a presidential campaign, they might be interested in my exploratory effort...
I'd suggest there is no way Nader could even reach the pitiful support levels of Dennis Kucinich, and Nader's bizarre notion that he can is yet another indication of his failing mental coherence and relevance to the national political scene.
Nader is correct that the old style populism embraced by Edwards and pseudo-socialist economics embraced by Kucinich match Nader's odd worldview, but I don't think Nader understands the degree to which his former support base has eroded, and also the strategic errors he made by failing to negotiate a deal with Al Gore - a deal that would have made Gore the president in 2000 and could have given Nader huge influence in certain areas.
John Edwards drops out of Democratic Primary
In a move that has surprised many pundits, John Edwards has dropped out of the democratic race. In New Orleans he said that Obama and Clinton had both pledged to make ending poverty a key cause of their campaigns:
"they will make ending poverty central to their campaign for the presidency."
"This is the cause of my life and I now have their commitment to engage in this cause,"
It's not clear how much Edwards support will flow to Clinton and Obama though the next set of tracking polls should be very interesting. I'd wildly guess it'll split about equally between Clinton and Obama.
Dick Morris was suggesting that the Florida results indicated Obama is moving up fast on Clinton, citing the fact that those who made a last minute decision were split between the two where earlier deciders went for Clinton. I'm not clear he's got the math right on this however, since this tell us something about "last minute deciders" rather than about the broader electorate. He felt this was like a tracking poll trending strongly in Obama's favor, but I think that is not mathematically sound reasoning.
"they will make ending poverty central to their campaign for the presidency."
"This is the cause of my life and I now have their commitment to engage in this cause,"
It's not clear how much Edwards support will flow to Clinton and Obama though the next set of tracking polls should be very interesting. I'd wildly guess it'll split about equally between Clinton and Obama.
Dick Morris was suggesting that the Florida results indicated Obama is moving up fast on Clinton, citing the fact that those who made a last minute decision were split between the two where earlier deciders went for Clinton. I'm not clear he's got the math right on this however, since this tell us something about "last minute deciders" rather than about the broader electorate. He felt this was like a tracking poll trending strongly in Obama's favor, but I think that is not mathematically sound reasoning.
McCain Wins Florida by 5%
John McCain soundly beat second place Mitt Romney in Florida, winning 36% of the vote in that key Republican primary. Giuliani will now drop out and endorse McCain.
Clinton "won" Florida as well for the democrats, but the delegates there currently are not eligible to participate at the national convention though many suggest they eventually will be allowed. In fact this could become a key point if the race gets close. A supreme irony would be a democratic convention where the Florida delegate ruling would determine the outcome.
Heading into mega primary Tuesday we find the Democrats and Republicans in two fairly close races between Clinton and Obama and McCain and Romney. Although I'm not nearly as confident as before I still think Clinton will win after a strong Tuesday showing. I'm not nearly as confident about a Romney victory - something seemed to derail his upward trend and it may simply be that McCain is a known quantity and that comforts voters.
Clinton "won" Florida as well for the democrats, but the delegates there currently are not eligible to participate at the national convention though many suggest they eventually will be allowed. In fact this could become a key point if the race gets close. A supreme irony would be a democratic convention where the Florida delegate ruling would determine the outcome.
Heading into mega primary Tuesday we find the Democrats and Republicans in two fairly close races between Clinton and Obama and McCain and Romney. Although I'm not nearly as confident as before I still think Clinton will win after a strong Tuesday showing. I'm not nearly as confident about a Romney victory - something seemed to derail his upward trend and it may simply be that McCain is a known quantity and that comforts voters.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Florida Primary: McCain vs Romney will be close
Most pundits are predicting a McCain win for Florida. I have not followed this one very close but my gut says that Romney will win and by a decent margin. Why? New Hampshire's polling fiasco suggest there may be a hidden voting block that does not participate in the polls but does participate in the elections. If Clinton's surprise NH victory is any indication this block could be "Senior Women" who are a large block that votes religiously. Who will senior Republican women support in Florida? Maybe McCain because he's an appealing character, but I think they'll vote disproportionately for the young, vigorous, and handsome Romney who appears far more "Presidential" and in command than McCain, who is older than many voters.
But I would not bet on this outcome....too many variables in play.
But I would not bet on this outcome....too many variables in play.
Betting on the President
Intrade is an actual gambling venue where you can bet on the various candidates to win primaries and the general election. It these gamblers are right, we'll see a McCain v Clinton General Election in the fall. At Intrade, both Obama and Romney only have about a third of the betting action chance to win their respective primaries.
Intrade odds on the 2008 elections
Intrade odds on the 2008 elections
Monday, January 28, 2008
Superdelegates are almost 20% of the vote in Democratic primary.
Underreported in the mainstream media is the significant role played by Democratic "superdelegates" in the primary process. 20% of the delegates at the convention are superdelegates. A list of these delegates along with their endorsements so far is HERE. Considering Clinton's large lead in the polls her clear superdelegate lead is also very significant. In fact one could argue that the superdelegate approach - by design - helps give a significant edge to political insiders like Hilary Clinton.
Clinton v Obama on February 5th. Mainstream media analysis has gone from worthless to opportunistic.
President Picker still thinks Hilary Clinton will be the nominee of the Democrats, and that the victory will be clear next Tuesday after the national primaries. Obama's speeches are both inspired and we think he's credible, but several factors continue to favor Clinton:
Polling shows Clinton with substantial voting leads almost across the board. RealClearPolitics.com has the best polling coverage and Clinton looks fairly solid. It'll be interesting to see how the Kennedy endorsement of Obama today affects the tracking polls tomorrow, but I'm guessing this was a media event that'll have little national impact on Obama's poll numbers.
So why does the media keep gushing over relatively insignificant events and aspects of the race? Because they LOVE a horserace, and they've helped make one happen by overstating Obama's chances, overstating Bill Clinton's positive and negative influences, and overstating the tensions in what has been a remarkably civil and dignified campaign.
With several exceptions such as the always frank and honest Pat Buchanon, many Republican analysts appear to me to be nothing short of deceptive with their glowing pseudo-endorsements of Obama, hoping to either create a weaker opponent for their Republican preference or (more likely) begin the tear-down of Hilary Clinton as early as possible.
Predictions? As always we are happy to give them. Clinton will consolidate here position and effectively win the democratic primary next week. Romney and McCain will remain close and that race will go down to the wire, perhaps depending on last minute negative campaign tactics, and probably going to the Republican convenion for a winner.
Look for Clinton to win very graciously and bring Obama on as her VP nominee quickly, consolidating the votes of two key groups in the general election: Women and African Americans.
Polling shows Clinton with substantial voting leads almost across the board. RealClearPolitics.com has the best polling coverage and Clinton looks fairly solid. It'll be interesting to see how the Kennedy endorsement of Obama today affects the tracking polls tomorrow, but I'm guessing this was a media event that'll have little national impact on Obama's poll numbers.
So why does the media keep gushing over relatively insignificant events and aspects of the race? Because they LOVE a horserace, and they've helped make one happen by overstating Obama's chances, overstating Bill Clinton's positive and negative influences, and overstating the tensions in what has been a remarkably civil and dignified campaign.
With several exceptions such as the always frank and honest Pat Buchanon, many Republican analysts appear to me to be nothing short of deceptive with their glowing pseudo-endorsements of Obama, hoping to either create a weaker opponent for their Republican preference or (more likely) begin the tear-down of Hilary Clinton as early as possible.
Predictions? As always we are happy to give them. Clinton will consolidate here position and effectively win the democratic primary next week. Romney and McCain will remain close and that race will go down to the wire, perhaps depending on last minute negative campaign tactics, and probably going to the Republican convenion for a winner.
Look for Clinton to win very graciously and bring Obama on as her VP nominee quickly, consolidating the votes of two key groups in the general election: Women and African Americans.
Kennedy Endorses Obama
Ted Kennedy has endorsed Barack Obama. Although most of the media, almost gushing over the announcement, suggests this is a very positive development for the Obama campaign, I think that on balance this may not bode well for Obama.
First, the Kennedy endorsement consolidates Obama's position as the most liberal of the two key players. Yet he was already very popular among the most liberal factions of the Democratic party. Strategically, how will this endorsement affect the votes of the suburban soccer moms and moderate Democrats? I'd suggest it will push them firmly into the Clinton camp. Also significant is that even if Obama wins the Democratic nomination it's clear that painting himself as a "left wing liberal" will not help in the general election. The Democrat is *almost certain* to get the liberal vote regardless of the candidate lineups on either the Democrat or Republican side. The key battleground in the election will be the undecided, indecisive middle of the road voters who I predict want to see balanced and moderate forces prevail. As GW Bush did in 2000, Obama has masterfully portrayed himself as a "reach across the aisle" candidate. Kennedy's endorsement will not lend much support to this assertion.
First, the Kennedy endorsement consolidates Obama's position as the most liberal of the two key players. Yet he was already very popular among the most liberal factions of the Democratic party. Strategically, how will this endorsement affect the votes of the suburban soccer moms and moderate Democrats? I'd suggest it will push them firmly into the Clinton camp. Also significant is that even if Obama wins the Democratic nomination it's clear that painting himself as a "left wing liberal" will not help in the general election. The Democrat is *almost certain* to get the liberal vote regardless of the candidate lineups on either the Democrat or Republican side. The key battleground in the election will be the undecided, indecisive middle of the road voters who I predict want to see balanced and moderate forces prevail. As GW Bush did in 2000, Obama has masterfully portrayed himself as a "reach across the aisle" candidate. Kennedy's endorsement will not lend much support to this assertion.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Obama wins big in South Carolina
Barack Obama crushed his two opponents in today's South Carolina primary, winning 55% of the vote over Hilary Clinton and John Edwards who had only 45% of the vote - combined. Although an Obama win was expected in South Carolina the size of the win was not. This huge percentage victory will inject a lot of enthusiasm and momentum into an already strong effort by the Obama campaign.
February 5th's massive primary day, where 22 states are in play, may not even be the decisive event now that the race is so close.
February 5th's massive primary day, where 22 states are in play, may not even be the decisive event now that the race is so close.
Friday, January 25, 2008
Kucinich out
Democratic Presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich has dropped out of the race. Lackluster poll numbers combined with a recent legal confrontation with MSNBC which fought hard to keep Kucinich out of the recent Democratic Debate. The New York Times reports on that conflict, where MSNBC wanted to exclude Kucinich after earlier invites and Kucinich arguing that this was a breach of contract. Initially the ruling was in Kucinich's favor, but appeared at last minute to be overtuned by legal appeal.
This leaves the democratics with three candidates: Clinton, Edwards, and Obama. Although Clinton still leads nationally Obama is now poised to win Saturday's South Carolina debate which may edge him even closer to polling parity with Clinton as we move into what may prove to be the definitive day in the election: February 5.
This leaves the democratics with three candidates: Clinton, Edwards, and Obama. Although Clinton still leads nationally Obama is now poised to win Saturday's South Carolina debate which may edge him even closer to polling parity with Clinton as we move into what may prove to be the definitive day in the election: February 5.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Thompson out of Republican Primary
Fred Thompson has dropped out of the race after a weak showing in the South Carolina primary on Saturday behind John McCain and Mike Huckabee. This was a predictable development, especially given Thompson's lackluster attitude towards the race. It almost appeared as if his candidacy was mostly the result of pressure from friends rather than a passion Thompson had to win.
Saturday, January 19, 2008
McCain poised to win South Carolina, Thompson to drop soon.
John McCain appears poised to win South Carolina as early returns have McCain leading Huckabee with some 38% of the So. Carolina vote.
This should be seen as very encouraging for the McCain campaign given the conservatism of this state. If Huckabee can't win in So. Carolina it's an indication that his early Iowa victory was more from good strategy than hidden high levels of national support.
Thompson appears in line for a 4th place showing behind Romney, which will almost certainly lead to him dropping out of the race by tomorrow.
Note that the Democratic primary in So. Carolina is *next* Saturday.
This should be seen as very encouraging for the McCain campaign given the conservatism of this state. If Huckabee can't win in So. Carolina it's an indication that his early Iowa victory was more from good strategy than hidden high levels of national support.
Thompson appears in line for a 4th place showing behind Romney, which will almost certainly lead to him dropping out of the race by tomorrow.
Note that the Democratic primary in So. Carolina is *next* Saturday.
Romney, Clinton in Nevada
Mitt Romney and Hilary Clinton are the Nevada Caucus winners. This is something of a surprise victory for Clinton who effectively lost a court battle to keep the cuacuses out of the Casinos, where Obama appeared to have a strong edge given his endorsement by the powerful Culinary Workers Union.
South Carolina Returns are now coming in with McCain and Huckabee close.
Duncan Hunter has dropped out, and I expect Thompson to drop by tomorrow morning after what appears to be a poor showing in South Carolina.
South Carolina Returns are now coming in with McCain and Huckabee close.
Duncan Hunter has dropped out, and I expect Thompson to drop by tomorrow morning after what appears to be a poor showing in South Carolina.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Casino Caucusing to go forward in Nevada Primary
The court has ruled that Caucusing will be allowed in Casinos as originally planned for the Nevada democratic primary, giving Barack Obama a huge boost in his effort to win that state. The Teachers Union has challenged the decision on the grounds that it was not fair to give Casino workers such easy access away from their districts while other workers won't have the same benefit, but the court has rejected that argument.
Look for Obama to win Nevada given his endorsement by the Culinary Workers union, a major political force in the state and in the key city of Las Vegas.
Look for Obama to win Nevada given his endorsement by the Culinary Workers union, a major political force in the state and in the key city of Las Vegas.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Romney wins Michigan
Mitt Romney has won the Michigan primary handily, giving him a victory many saw as essential to keeping a strong candidacy alive. McCain ran second with about 30% to Romney's 39%.
The mixed results of the initial primaries are leaving the Republican nomination up for grabs, with Huckabee, Romney, McCain, and Giuliani all considered strong possible contenders. Even Thompson, with a strong South Carolina primary showing, could see a campaign surge though Thompson appears a very long shot at this point.
President Picker still thinks Romney has the edge due to superficial appearance issues and, most importantly, cash on hand, which for Romney is effectively his own bank on which he can draw as needed. That said it seems evangelical voters have been reluctant to embrace Romney and McCain's straight talk has charged his campaign, so it's anybody's race now.
The mixed results of the initial primaries are leaving the Republican nomination up for grabs, with Huckabee, Romney, McCain, and Giuliani all considered strong possible contenders. Even Thompson, with a strong South Carolina primary showing, could see a campaign surge though Thompson appears a very long shot at this point.
President Picker still thinks Romney has the edge due to superficial appearance issues and, most importantly, cash on hand, which for Romney is effectively his own bank on which he can draw as needed. That said it seems evangelical voters have been reluctant to embrace Romney and McCain's straight talk has charged his campaign, so it's anybody's race now.
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