Bill Clinton Speech at Democratic Convention 2012

Bill Clinton Speech at Democratic Convention 2012

Michelle Obama Speech - transcript from 2012 Democratic National Convention

Tonight's speech by Michelle Obama showed that it's not only the president with exception oratorical skill.  Smooth and powerful, Michelle Obama articulated the vision for America she feels her husband brings to the table, and roused fellow Democratics at the Convention.  Here is the transcript:

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Michelle Obama speech at the 2012 Democratic National Convention:

Thank you so much, Elaine…we are so grateful for your family’s service and sacrifice…and we will always have your back.

Over the past few years as First Lady, I have had the extraordinary privilege of traveling all across this country.

And everywhere I’ve gone, in the people I’ve met, and the stories I’ve heard, I have seen the very best of the American spirit.

I have seen it in the incredible kindness and warmth that people have shown me and my family, especially our girls.

I’ve seen it in teachers in a near-bankrupt school district who vowed to keep teaching without pay.

I’ve seen it in people who become heroes at a moment’s notice, diving into harm’s way to save others…flying across the country to put out a fire…driving for hours to bail out a flooded town.

And I’ve seen it in our men and women in uniform and our proud military families…in wounded warriors who tell me they’re not just going to walk again, they’re going to run, and they’re going to run marathons…in the young man blinded by a bomb in Afghanistan who said, simply, “…I’d give my eyes 100 times again to have the chance to do what I have done and what I can still do.”

Every day, the people I meet inspire me…every day, they make me proud…every day they remind me how blessed we are to live in the greatest nation on earth.

Serving as your First Lady is an honor and a privilege…but back when we first came together four years ago, I still had some concerns about this journey we’d begun.

While I believed deeply in my husband’s vision for this country…and I was certain he would make an extraordinary President…like any mother, I was worried about what it would mean for our girls if he got that chance.

How would we keep them grounded under the glare of the national spotlight?

How would they feel being uprooted from their school, their friends, and the only home they’d ever known?

Our life before moving to Washington was filled with simple joys…Saturdays at soccer games, Sundays at grandma’s house…and a date night for Barack and me was either dinner or a movie, because as an exhausted mom, I couldn’t stay awake for both.

And the truth is, I loved the life we had built for our girls…I deeply loved the man I had built that life with…and I didn’t want that to change if he became President.

I loved Barack just the way he was.

You see, even though back then Barack was a Senator and a presidential candidate…to me, he was still the guy who’d picked me up for our dates in a car that was so rusted out, I could actually see the pavement going by through a hole in the passenger side door…he was the guy whose proudest possession was a coffee table he’d found in a dumpster, and whose only pair of decent shoes was half a size too small.

But when Barack started telling me about his family – that’s when I knew I had found a kindred spirit, someone whose values and upbringing were so much like mine.

You see, Barack and I were both raised by families who didn’t have much in the way of money or material possessions but who had given us something far more valuable – their unconditional love, their unflinching sacrifice, and the chance to go places they had never imagined for themselves.

My father was a pump operator at the city water plant, and he was diagnosed with Multiple Sclerosis when my brother and I were young.

And even as a kid, I knew there were plenty of days when he was in pain…I knew there were plenty of mornings when it was a struggle for him to simply get out of bed.

But every morning, I watched my father wake up with a smile, grab his walker, prop himself up against the bathroom sink, and slowly shave and button his uniform.

And when he returned home after a long day’s work, my brother and I would stand at the top of the stairs to our little apartment, patiently waiting to greet him…watching as he reached down to lift one leg, and then the other, to slowly climb his way into our arms.

But despite these challenges, my dad hardly ever missed a day of work…he and my mom were determined to give me and my brother the kind of education they could only dream of.

And when my brother and I finally made it to college, nearly all of our tuition came from student loans and grants.

But my dad still had to pay a tiny portion of that tuition himself.

And every semester, he was determined to pay that bill right on time, even taking out loans when he fell short.

He was so proud to be sending his kids to college…and he made sure we never missed a registration deadline because his check was late.

You see, for my dad, that’s what it meant to be a man.

Like so many of us, that was the measure of his success in life – being able to earn a decent living that allowed him to support his family.

And as I got to know Barack, I realized that even though he’d grown up all the way across the country, he’d been brought up just like me.

Barack was raised by a single mother who struggled to pay the bills, and by grandparents who stepped in when she needed help.

Barack’s grandmother started out as a secretary at a community bank…and she moved quickly up the ranks…but like so many women, she hit a glass ceiling.

And for years, men no more qualified than she was – men she had actually trained – were promoted up the ladder ahead of her, earning more and more money while Barack’s family continued to scrape by.

But day after day, she kept on waking up at dawn to catch the bus…arriving at work before anyone else…giving her best without complaint or regret.

And she would often tell Barack, “So long as you kids do well, Bar, that’s all that really matters.”

Like so many American families, our families weren’t asking for much.

They didn’t begrudge anyone else’s success or care that others had much more than they did...in fact, they admired it.

They simply believed in that fundamental American promise that, even if you don’t start out with much, if you work hard and do what you’re supposed to do, then you should be able to build a decent life for yourself and an even better life for your kids and grandkids.

That’s how they raised us…that’s what we learned from their example.

We learned about dignity and decency – that how hard you work matters more than how much you make…that helping others means more than just getting ahead yourself.

We learned about honesty and integrity – that the truth matters…that you don’t take shortcuts or play by your own set of rules…and success doesn’t count unless you earn it fair and square.

We learned about gratitude and humility – that so many people had a hand in our success, from the teachers who inspired us to the janitors who kept our school clean…and we were taught to value everyone’s contribution and treat everyone with respect.

Those are the values Barack and I – and so many of you – are trying to pass on to our own children.

That’s who we are.

And standing before you four years ago, I knew that I didn’t want any of that to change if Barack became President.

Well, today, after so many struggles and triumphs and moments that have tested my husband in ways I never could have imagined, I have seen firsthand that being president doesn’t change who you are – it reveals who you are.

You see, I’ve gotten to see up close and personal what being president really looks like.

And I’ve seen how the issues that come across a President’s desk are always the hard ones – the problems where no amount of data or numbers will get you to the right answer…the judgment calls where the stakes are so high, and there is no margin for error.

And as President, you can get all kinds of advice from all kinds of people.

But at the end of the day, when it comes time to make that decision, as President, all you have to guide you are your values, and your vision, and the life experiences that make you who you are.

So when it comes to rebuilding our economy, Barack is thinking about folks like my dad and like his grandmother.

He’s thinking about the pride that comes from a hard day’s work.

That’s why he signed the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act to help women get equal pay for equal work.

That’s why he cut taxes for working families and small businesses and fought to get the auto industry back on its feet.

That’s how he brought our economy from the brink of collapse to creating jobs again – jobs you can raise a family on, good jobs right here in the United States of America.

When it comes to the health of our families, Barack refused to listen to all those folks who told him to leave health reform for another day, another president.

He didn’t care whether it was the easy thing to do politically – that’s not how he was raised – he cared that it was the right thing to do.

He did it because he believes that here in America, our grandparents should be able to afford their medicine…our kids should be able to see a doctor when they’re sick…and no one in this country should ever go broke because of an accident or illness.

And he believes that women are more than capable of making our own choices about our bodies and our health care…that’s what my husband stands for.

When it comes to giving our kids the education they deserve, Barack knows that like me and like so many of you, he never could’ve attended college without financial aid.

And believe it or not, when we were first married, our combined monthly student loan bills were actually higher than our mortgage.

We were so young, so in love, and so in debt.

That’s why Barack has fought so hard to increase student aid and keep interest rates down, because he wants every young person to fulfill their promise and be able to attend college without a mountain of debt.

So in the end, for Barack, these issues aren’t political – they’re personal.

Because Barack knows what it means when a family struggles.

He knows what it means to want something more for your kids and grandkids.

Barack knows the American Dream because he’s lived it…and he wants everyone in this country to have that same opportunity, no matter who we are, or where we’re from, or what we look like, or who we love.

And he believes that when you’ve worked hard, and done well, and walked through that doorway of opportunity…you do not slam it shut behind you…you reach back, and you give other folks the same chances that helped you succeed.

So when people ask me whether being in the White House has changed my husband, I can honestly say that when it comes to his character, and his convictions, and his heart, Barack Obama is still the same man I fell in love with all those years ago.

He’s the same man who started his career by turning down high paying jobs and instead working in struggling neighborhoods where a steel plant had shut down, fighting to rebuild those communities and get folks back to work…because for Barack, success isn’t about how much money you make, it’s about the difference you make in people’s lives.

He’s the same man who, when our girls were first born, would anxiously check their cribs every few minutes to ensure they were still breathing, proudly showing them off to everyone we knew.

That’s the man who sits down with me and our girls for dinner nearly every night, patiently answering their questions about issues in the news, and strategizing about middle school friendships.

That’s the man I see in those quiet moments late at night, hunched over his desk, poring over the letters people have sent him.

The letter from the father struggling to pay his bills…from the woman dying of cancer whose insurance company won’t cover her care…from the young person with so much promise but so few opportunities.

I see the concern in his eyes...and I hear the determination in his voice as he tells me, “You won’t believe what these folks are going through, Michelle…it’s not right. We’ve got to keep working to fix this. We’ve got so much more to do.”

I see how those stories – our collection of struggles and hopes and dreams – I see how that’s what drives Barack Obama every single day.

And I didn’t think it was possible, but today, I love my husband even more than I did four years ago…even more than I did 23 years ago, when we first met.

I love that he’s never forgotten how he started.

I love that we can trust Barack to do what he says he’s going to do, even when it’s hard – especially when it’s hard.

I love that for Barack, there is no such thing as “us” and “them” – he doesn’t care whether you’re a Democrat, a Republican, or none of the above…he knows that we all love our country…and he’s always ready to listen to good ideas…he’s always looking for the very best in everyone he meets.

And I love that even in the toughest moments, when we’re all sweating it – when we’re worried that the bill won’t pass, and it seems like all is lost – Barack never lets himself get distracted by the chatter and the noise.

Just like his grandmother, he just keeps getting up and moving forward…with patience and wisdom, and courage and grace.

And he reminds me that we are playing a long game here…and that change is hard, and change is slow, and it never happens all at once.

But eventually we get there, we always do.

We get there because of folks like my Dad…folks like Barack’s grandmother…men and women who said to themselves, “I may not have a chance to fulfill my dreams, but maybe my children will…maybe my grandchildren will.”

So many of us stand here tonight because of their sacrifice, and longing, and steadfast love…because time and again, they swallowed their fears and doubts and did what was hard.

So today, when the challenges we face start to seem overwhelming – or even impossible – let us never forget that doing the impossible is the history of this nation…it’s who we are as Americans…it’s how this country was built.

And if our parents and grandparents could toil and struggle for us…if they could raise beams of steel to the sky, send a man to the moon, and connect the world with the touch of a button…then surely we can keep on sacrificing and building for our own kids and grandkids.

And if so many brave men and women could wear our country’s uniform and sacrifice their lives for our most fundamental rights…then surely we can do our part as citizens of this great democracy to exercise those rights…surely, we can get to the polls and make our voices heard on Election Day.

If farmers and blacksmiths could win independence from an empire…if immigrants could leave behind everything they knew for a better life on our shores…if women could be dragged to jail for seeking the vote…if a generation could defeat a depression, and define greatness for all time…if a young preacher could lift us to the mountaintop with his righteous dream…and if proud Americans can be who they are and boldly stand at the altar with who they love…then surely, surely we can give everyone in this country a fair chance at that great American Dream.

Because in the end, more than anything else, that is the story of this country – the story of unwavering hope grounded in unyielding struggle.

That is what has made my story, and Barack’s story, and so many other American stories possible.

And I say all of this tonight not just as First Lady…and not just as a wife.

You see, at the end of the day, my most important title is still “mom-in-chief.”

My daughters are still the heart of my heart and the center of my world.

But today, I have none of those worries from four years ago about whether Barack and I were doing what’s best for our girls.

Because today, I know from experience that if I truly want to leave a better world for my daughters, and all our sons and daughters…if we want to give all our children a foundation for their dreams and opportunities worthy of their promise…if we want to give them that sense of limitless possibility – that belief that here in America, there is always something better out there if you’re willing to work for it…then we must work like never before…and we must once again come together and stand together for the man we can trust to keep moving this great country forward…my husband, our President, President Barack Obama.

Thank you, God bless you, and God bless America.

Democratic National Convention Begins in Charlotte

As the Democratic National Convention gears up in Charlotte, NC the presidential race is tight, with recent RealClearPolitics polling summaries showing pretty much a dead heat in the race for the US Presidency.   Of course with some Republican Convention buzz still in the air it's fairly likely that Obama will again pull ahead if the Democrats put on anything other than a bad show in Charlotte this week.

The race for the presidency tightens:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Where the Republicans were working hard to look inclusive, showcasing their "weak" voting blocks of hispanic, black, and female, we'll see plenty of diversity at the Democratic Convention.   However with the democrats it will be interesting to see if the approach is to consolidate and fire up the "base" or try to veer a bit right to include more independent and moderates in the final tallies.

Romney Accepts Nomination and Speaks at Republican National Convention.

Mitt Romney combined an initially soft spoken address tonight with just a modest dose of "fighting words", suggesting that the 2012 Presidential Campaign strategists will have people and groups  *other than Romney* do the attacking in this campaign, while Romney will work to appeal to the positive.

Romney's address did have some "fighting words" and  we'll certainly see plenty of the negative stuff come out from Romney surrogates.   But it looks like Romney and probably to a lesser extent Ryan, will be speaking to the natural optimism of the American people.  Ryan, I predict, will be hitting Obama hard on the big differences in economic policy.

Despite Romney's spectacular record as a successful businessman and executive, his style is likely to fall flat compared to Obama's oratorical brilliance, and the election outcome is more likely to hinge on the effectiveness of each sides negative campaigning rather than the positive.

With billions yet to be spent and current polls separating Obama and Romney by only a point or two, the 2012 election is far from over, and we'll have to wait to see how the undecided few respond to the barrage of advertising that will begin very soon, blanketing the key states in the elections.

Republicans Unite Around Mitt Romney

The Republican Convention in Tampa, Florida winds up soon as the party rallies around Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, Republican nominees for the US Presidency.

Ironically, the Republicans seem obsessed with convincing America that Mitt Romney is a really good guy. That won't be hard since Romney is one of the most hard working, friendly, and sincere folks you'll find in the political spectrum.   From a strategic point of view it seems to me they'd do better to focus on his political abilities.    Obama's got the clear edge both in polling and in the advantages inherent with incumbency, so one would think the strategists would be looking for harder hitting, more powerful talking points.

That said, personalizing Romney may be important to his campaign as Obama's also got the clear edge as an appealing personality.

... more soon as Romney is about to speak ...

Romney VP Pick is Paul Ryan of Wisconsin

President Picker is confident that Mitt Romney's VP Pick will be Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.  Ryan is known as one of the Republican's top budgeting experts, and his efforts in congress as a key player in the budget discussions are very likely a key reason he's been chosen by Romney to run as his Vice Presidential running mate in the 2012 Presidential Campaign.

More about Paul Ryan from his website:
http://paulryan.house.gov/

Tax or Penalty? Nonsense debate of the day

The recent Supreme Court decision came as a surprise to many, especially as conservative Justice Roberts wound up essentially settling this case in President Obama's favor.     That decision is *very significant* both with respect to health care and with respect to taxes vs penalties vs other Government revenue items.  However, the implications for the presidential campaign are, as usual, mostly just for spin.

The Romney and Obama campaigns are arguing over Romney's characterization of his Massachusetts health care payments as "penalties" rather than a "taxes" since Romney agreed with the Supreme Court that the Obama personal insurance mandate is a "tax".   Sadly, this discussion will  probably distract us from the key aspects of the national debate over healthcare.   That discussion should take the form of how to bring the best care at the lowest cost rather than over symantics.  

Ironically, Romney's Massachusetts plans are, very arguably, in line with Obama's health care vision, but he's had to change his tune somewhat to accommodate those in the Republican Party who are either opposed to Obama's plans on principle (some), or simply opposed to them because it's Obama  (too many IMO).  

President Picker Posts coming soon!

As the Obama / Romney battle for the Presidency looms, slow blogging here at President Picker is partly a result of working on several other projects, namely:

Retire USA Retirement Information
Retirement Blog
Travel and History Blog
US History Website
US History Blog
History and Civil War Blog

But we'll be back soon with plenty of commentary on the upcoming US Election, where President Picker is calling the race early for Obama even as we recognize that factors could emerge that might change that likely result.   However, unless the economy shows serious signs of weakness it seems very unlikely that Romney could overturn the current popularity of President Obama given the uncertainty of a new President and the demographic forces such as young voters.

Exit Polls - Romney Wins Ohio

With a victory soon to be announced in Ohio, Mitt Romney is ever closer to wrapping up the Republican nomination.   Although Santorum appears to have a respectable showing tonight, and even Newt Gingritch and Ron Paul have shown some regional strengths, the Romney Juggernaut is very likely to prove too hard to overcome.

Prediction: Michigan for Romney, Romney wins Republican nomination

9:13 EST:  Mitt Romney has taken the lead in Michigan and the results from Detroit still pour in - Romney is very heavily favored in Detroit's Wayne County so it appears Romney is the winner in Michigan as well as Arizona, and is very likely to go on to win the nomination for the Republican party nominee.

Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, Paul

Although here at President Picker we're still predicting a Romney victory in the Republican Primary and an Obama win in the general election, it is now clear that Romney has failed to "wrap up" the Republican Primary as many predicted he would by now.   Rick Santorum has clearly been annointed the new darling of conservative Republicans and his big wins in several states give him a real shot at the nomination.  Gingrich's campaign is probably on its last legs now, while Ron Paul's substantial showings continue to be largely ignored by many who generally argue that Paul is less likely than Santorum or Romney to "break out" with enough votes to win the nomination outright.

Things get very interesting if Santorum, Paul, and Gingrich do well enough to thwart an outright victory by Romney, leading to a brokered Republican convention.  This would be a very interesting scenario as we'd likely see mainstreamers still favor Romney while the hard liners - and often the most enthusiastic campaigners - will likely favor Santorum.

President Picker's Prediction:    Romney / Santorum Ticket in 2012 vs Obama Biden.

South Carolina to Gingrich, and we have a whole new Republican Primary new ballgame! ?

American Politics is nothing if it's not full of hyperbole and breathless discussion of the implications of the ebb and flow of votes as our incredibly lengthy process slogs on.    With Newt Gingrich's win in South Carolina and very strong polling in Florida  (Gingrich leads there in polls), it looks like Mitt Romney was not locked in to the nomination as strongly as many had thought.

Romney is facing the wrath of the conservative wings of the Republican party combined with Gingrich's clever, effective, and well funded negative campaigning.     As Gingrich gains ground look for the battlefield to bloody with even more negativity from the Romney SuperPac, the "man behind the curtain" in terms of the negative advertising that supports the Romney campaign.  

2012 is the first presidential election to fall under new campaign financing rules that are likely to make the SuperPacs even more significant as campaign mudslingers.   (PAC = "Political Action Committee").

Negative campaigning is always decried by candidates, the press, and the public but it remains the most effective way to fight a political battle, so its foolish and ridiculous to think it won't generally play a key and often decisive role in significant elections, especially for the US Presidency.  

South Carolina Primary - Negative working like a charm

Newt Gingrich is now leading Mitt Romney in most South Carolina primary polling, certainly at least in part as a result of the massive and well funded negative TV campaign against Romney.    Of course its also true that most South Carolina Republican voters are a lot more conservative than Romney, and thus the Gingrich camp can reasonably argue that they've simply been helping South Carolinians figure out who the "more  conservative candidate" is in this campaign.

It's still difficult to see how even a narrow victory by Gingrich could derail Romney's likely victory in the Republican primary, but it'll certainly make for a more interesting horse race.

Americans Elect 2012

Here at President Picker we're big fans of the new online effort to create a candidacy freer from special interests and party politics than ever before.  This non-partisan effort is growing fast and appears to be on the verge of "breaking out" as a somewhat viable 3rd party candidate (who is yet to be determined by the membership of the group which is, as well as the candidacy, open to all Americans).    Obviously 2012 won't see a 3rd party effort that is competitive with the Democrats and Republicans, but we predict that by 2016 we'll have a viable third party in some form, perhaps this one:

PURPOSE

THE GOAL OF AMERICANS ELECT is to nominate a presidential ticket that answers directly to voters—not the political system.

American voters are tired of politics as usual. They want leaders that will put their country before their party, and American interests before special interests. Leaders who will work together to develop fresh solutions to the serious challenges facing our country. We believe a secure, online nominating process will prove that America is ready for a competitive, nonpartisan ticket.

PROCESS

• DEFINE YOUR "TRUE COLORS"

  Define the crucial issues facing our nation—beyond just red and blue.

  RANK YOUR PRIORITIES FOR OUR NEXT PRESIDENT

  ANSWER QUESTIONS THAT DETERMINE YOUR INDIVIDUAL VIEWS

  SEE HOW YOU COMPARE TO OTHER DELEGATES AND CANDIDATES

  

PROGRESS

Americans Elect is already well on the way to putting the first directly-nominated nonpartisan ticket on the 2012 ballot in all 50 states.

2,107,742

Romney or Bachman or ? for the Republican Nomination

As the debt ceiling / US budget theatrics continue in Washington (prediction - compromises coming in a few days to avert an S&P downgrade) , the race for the Republican presidential nomination continues in a somewhat lackluster fashion with several potential candidates on the sidelines waiting to see if they can muster enough support to throw their hat into the ring.

However Republicans must be concerned that none of the current crop appear likely to defeat Obama unless the economy suffers significantly greater setbacks in the next year. It's alarming to think that some radical Republicans may have this scenario in mind as they continue to stall on budget compromises and raising the debt ceiling, hoping to harm the economy enough to defeat Obama but not enough to send us into a tailspin. That calculation would not only be unpatriotic, it would be potentially disastrous for the country.

The current best bet appears to be that Mitt Romney will sort of plod into the Republican nomination with Michelle Bachmann pulling in the Tea Party folks, leaving moderate Republicans a choice between Rick Perry and Mitt Romney who are polling about equally in scenarios where Perry's in the ring (he has not announced yet but is very likely to do so if his numbers stay as high as now. RealClearPolitics has Romney at 18%, Perry at 17% in a race where all the strong potential candidates are placed in the ring. With only *announced* candidates, Romney's in a strong lead at 27% with Bachmann second with 18% , Ron Paul third with 11%.

Look for Palin to stay out of the race and hope for a VP spot on the likely Romney or Perry ticket. Look for Bachmann to *get* the VP spot on the Romney or Perry ticket, giving the Republicans a similar strategy to McCain / Palin but with much stronger candidates on the ticket.

In our view Obama's still in the driver's seat with respect to the 2012 election. Barring a serious economic setback, Americans are unlikely to want yet another major "change" in the White House so soon. Obama's kept his core constituency happy with only modest levels of alienation of those on the far left who naively felt Obama as President would act very consistently with Obama as young Chicago organizer. We're likely to see more liberal "progressive" politics from Obama in a second term, but it's clear that President Obama will continue to keep moderate democrats fairly happy while he continues to alienate the far left and right. It's a great political strategy and it won't change for the 2012 election.

History of the Democratic Party and the Birth Certificate

Over at Travel and History I've written a short "History of the Democratic Party", focusing mostly on presidents and briefly tracing the history of the democratic party from inception in the late 1700s to modern times with the election of our latest Democratic President, Barack Obama, who coincidentally just released a better copy of his birth certificate ... today.

Although the "birther"arguments have always been pretty dumb, it was also been odd that the Obama camp worked so hard to avoid releasing the "vault copy" or original certificate. My working hypothesis about that was that the original birth certificate probably was lost or defaced or contained something compromising which might have made greater trouble than simply stonewalling, but the release of this latest long form birth certificate official copy from Hawaii suggests that was wrong and there was nothing at all to hide. One would think the Obama election team would have waited until closer to the election to let the frothy nonsense continue, so perhaps they have decided this was eating into his popularity enough that waiting any longer was unwise.

In any case, it looks like the 2012 Presidential Election will now be pretty much in full swing, though as David Brooks suggested recently it's very hard to imagine anybody in the current field of candidates giving Obama much of a run. I think Romney is the most likely nominee and arguably has a shot, but a lot can happen in the coming months as Republicans work the dreary Iowa farms and fields to line up early support, effectively copying the brilliant strategy of the Obama 2008 early campaign juggernaut.

Obama v. Romney in 2012 ?

As the Republican presidential primary contenders start to shake out from the field of many to a few, two names seem to stand out conspicuously: Donald Trump and Mitt Romney. Readers of President Picker will note that we thought Romney would win last election's Republican Primary, and we'll stick with that prediction for this one. McCain's nomination and predictably weak candidacy was a surprise to us though the outcome was not. Romney is a far more formidable opponent to Obama, and we'll see a close 2012 race if he's the nominee, a race that will reflect the increasing level of political polarization in the USA.

The other conspicuous Republican is Donald Trump, the bombastic star of real estate and TV. It's remarkable to see how well Trump's doing right now in polling, though most likely this simply reflects the growing frustration with America's arguably obsolete two party focus - a system that largely requires a tribal approach to thinking and politics rather than the flexible and compromising strategies that would serve us better.

The new political landscape. Stay Tuned.

As the Republicans take control of congress and the Tea Party starts to weild real power, the American Political landscape will again change. Too many analysts seem confused by what is wrongly perceived as a shift in the way people view big government. Obama's election was not an endorsement of big government - rather it reflected the powerful desire on the part of the public for new people and new approaches. In some ways the electorate is "experimenting" with politicians - bringing in new ones until they find something they like. Dissatisfaction with GW Bush and the feeling that neither Hilary Clinton nor John McCain would bring new and inspired innovation and leadership largely account for Obama's win. Those factors were probably more important than his own policies.

In many ways the "seesaw" Democracy we have is inefficient, but it does serve to change the game. Unfortunately we don't see this in the congress and Senate. Founders such as Franklin and Jefferson generally advised in favor of term limits but these rules were only constitutionalized for the office of the Presidency.

What's in store? If events immediately preceding the elections are any indication, Obama may continue to find ways to cooperate and compromise to avoid the gridlock many are predicting. Was Obama to some extent handicapped by Democrats control of the congress which forced him to support fiscally questionable policy making? Now in power, will Tea Party folks continue to fight for the strident conservative spending principles of their campaign?

Stay ... Tuned ... America

Dumbing Down the Democracy Dialog

As the election season heats up the Tea Party has now cleverly taken a page from the online media playbook of MoveOn.org and started their own propaganda garbage "network". Called "TeaPartyHD", it's filled with the same kind of stuff we see from MoveOn - irrational pieces designed to sway the gullible and ignorant (that would be ... many of us) using scare tactics and distortions rather than reasoned discourse.

There's nothing really new in that approach to politics, but I'm quickly coming to the conclusion that the internet has diminished rather than enhanced the political dialog. The medium isn't really to blame here - if we were an enlighted bunch we could have spirited discussions with candidates going on 24/7, with transcripts and summaries and a huge level of interaction with real people.

But, alas, we're not that kind of creature. So the most effective use of media dollars is to create online networks to spread negativity and distortions about your opponents, yet keep an arms length from the candidates so they can deny involvement in the junk.

Free speech is a wonderful benefit but by paying attention to the garbage we really diminish ourselves and the process. I don't expect that to change, but if you pay attention to this nonsense OR help spread it, you should at least recognize that we are degrading our democracy with this approach. Strategically it works, so I can't suggest either side would be wise not to continue the distortions and negative campaigning, but there may be compromises where we can start to address real issues somewhere in the mix.

Palin 2012 Presidential Bid is a big Win for Obama

As Sarah Palin Bid for the presidency becomes more and more certain, the Obama camp should be happy to see Republicans reeling under the pressures that will come from splitting a ticket between more mainstream candidates and Palin, the darling of the "Tea Party" conservatives who have injected a lot of passion but not a not of reason into the upcoming debates over the future of US policy.

Early prediction: Look for Palin to narrowly loose to the mainstream candidate - our early money is on Romney, and look for that fight to take the wind out of the Republican sails, leading to a fairly easy Obama win in 2012.

UK Guardian: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jul/12/sarah-palin-election-war-chest