This excellent article has details about both McCain and Obama's campaign contribution connections to Wall Street, including some of the firms now getting bailed out by ... you and me and other taxpayers.
Twisted campaign commercial banter notwithstanding, it's clear to anybody that their is a very questionable relationship between campaign contributions and legislation. It's not that Obama or McCain have some sort of quid pro quo with contributors - they do NOT have that. However, it's clear that contributions help keep supporters in power and keep those to whom they contribute within earshot, key reasons companies spend so much on politics.
Like pigs with lipstick, the campaigns and foolish journalistic lackeys failing are failing to discuss or report about the key issues in the race: A Challenged Economy and looming home equity disaster, war and global hegemony and dangerous adversaries, and massive Government Spending. Unfortunately clear thinkers won't find a candidate with good ideas about all these things. Where are the founders when you need them?
Friday, September 19, 2008
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Let the real race begin!
The Convention dust appears to have settled, leaving us with a close race and a slight Obama lead - probably narrower than before the conventions and the remarkable rise of Sarah Palin as McCain's muse. Palin has effectively consolidated McCain's formerly unenthusiastic conservative support and appears to be drawing votes from some moderates who would like to see a woman in the office regardless of her politics.
A factor of interest that makes the polling even harder to read it the increasing level of media bias in the election. Where CNN maintains a modest, sufficient level of journalistic objectivity, Fox's talk shows and even some Fox anchors have always been unabashedly and unapologetically in support of the Republican agenda. Yet now we find a similar kind of zealotry on MSNBC, especially with Rachel Maddow Kieth Olberman whose partisanship is giving right winger Sean Hannity a run for his ideologically influenced journalistic money.
The challenge for the viewer is that the poll numbers are getting reported differently - so much so that today we have MSNBC reporting Obama in the lead and Fox reporting McCain, each probably overweighting their own problematic sampling methods. As usual RealClearPolitics is a great way to cut through the chatter with a great summary of all major polls and the RCP running average, which I'd suggest is the best way to determine what's going on nationally.
RealClearPolitics.com
A factor of interest that makes the polling even harder to read it the increasing level of media bias in the election. Where CNN maintains a modest, sufficient level of journalistic objectivity, Fox's talk shows and even some Fox anchors have always been unabashedly and unapologetically in support of the Republican agenda. Yet now we find a similar kind of zealotry on MSNBC, especially with Rachel Maddow Kieth Olberman whose partisanship is giving right winger Sean Hannity a run for his ideologically influenced journalistic money.
The challenge for the viewer is that the poll numbers are getting reported differently - so much so that today we have MSNBC reporting Obama in the lead and Fox reporting McCain, each probably overweighting their own problematic sampling methods. As usual RealClearPolitics is a great way to cut through the chatter with a great summary of all major polls and the RCP running average, which I'd suggest is the best way to determine what's going on nationally.
RealClearPolitics.com
Friday, September 12, 2008
The Sarah Palin Interviews
ABC, with the only Sarah Palin interview to date, is slowly releasing clips with a longer edition tonight on ABC's news program 20/20. The interviews are in a fairly informal format with Charles Gibson, one of the most knowledgeable reporters on network TV.
In my opinion Palin has produced no gaffes nor really shined. She appears to be a sincere, conservative ideologue, very dedicated to her party and the McCain campaign. She is clearly not particularly well informed on broad global issues, seeming to prefer tight, ideologically based opinions to those formed from detailed research or a study of history.
It remains to be seen how the critical "swing voters" of key states like Ohio, Michigan, Virginia, and Colorado will view Sarah Palin. Polls still seem to reflect the overwhelming media attention of the past few days so it will be a week or so before meaningful information sort of sets the "starting point" for the big race, and as always the race will be won or lost not on the basis of total votes but on electoral voting and state by state strategies.
In my opinion Palin has produced no gaffes nor really shined. She appears to be a sincere, conservative ideologue, very dedicated to her party and the McCain campaign. She is clearly not particularly well informed on broad global issues, seeming to prefer tight, ideologically based opinions to those formed from detailed research or a study of history.
It remains to be seen how the critical "swing voters" of key states like Ohio, Michigan, Virginia, and Colorado will view Sarah Palin. Polls still seem to reflect the overwhelming media attention of the past few days so it will be a week or so before meaningful information sort of sets the "starting point" for the big race, and as always the race will be won or lost not on the basis of total votes but on electoral voting and state by state strategies.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Rove: Watch Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado
Karl Rove penned a very interesting electoral analysis last month where he suggests that the race is likely to hinge on the outcome in four key states: Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado. Since the decision is made on the basis of electoral votes and not popular vote, and since several states award all their votes rather than proportional distribution of electoral votes, certain states will matter where others are pretty much a given for either McCain (e.g. Texas) or Obama (e.g. New York).
I see Ohio as pretty much the key battleground state. Ohio was key in 2004 when GW Bush's narrow victory there gave him the win over John Kerry. Although the 2004 race there was not as close as Florida's (where the butterfly ballot fiasco created a super narrow win for Bush even though the intention of several thousand voters was to to vote for Gore but ballot design meant they voted for both Gore and Buchanon and thus had the ballot spoiled. As I've note before Florida 2000 is usually analyzed strangely and wrongly - either as a Supreme Court "coup" or as a real "win" by Bush. It was neither, rather it was a fluke of our terrible electoral system (which should award electors proportionally) and ballot irregularities (which are hard to fix but won't matter nearly as much if we use a national vote count).
So, Ohio probably holds the key to the election, and if you live there get ready to watch more TV ads than you've ever seen on a single topic in your entire life...
I see Ohio as pretty much the key battleground state. Ohio was key in 2004 when GW Bush's narrow victory there gave him the win over John Kerry. Although the 2004 race there was not as close as Florida's (where the butterfly ballot fiasco created a super narrow win for Bush even though the intention of several thousand voters was to to vote for Gore but ballot design meant they voted for both Gore and Buchanon and thus had the ballot spoiled. As I've note before Florida 2000 is usually analyzed strangely and wrongly - either as a Supreme Court "coup" or as a real "win" by Bush. It was neither, rather it was a fluke of our terrible electoral system (which should award electors proportionally) and ballot irregularities (which are hard to fix but won't matter nearly as much if we use a national vote count).
So, Ohio probably holds the key to the election, and if you live there get ready to watch more TV ads than you've ever seen on a single topic in your entire life...
Palin's first major media interview with Charlie Gibson, ABC News
ABC has posted some small clips from tonight's interview with Sarah Palin here:
http://abcnews.go.com/wn
You may want to wait for the full interview later tonight to avoid watching a 30 second ad to see a one minute clip.
http://abcnews.go.com/wn
You may want to wait for the full interview later tonight to avoid watching a 30 second ad to see a one minute clip.
McCain beating Obama in popular vote, electoral still edging towards Obama.
The Republican convention dust and bumps have yet to settle, and perhaps more importantly Sarah Palin remains carefully closeted away from personal media interaction. Yet one thing that is clear is that McCain's choice of Palin has breathed new life into his campaign and that he appears to be leading in the national popular vote, though most electoral counts still seem to favor Obama by a very narrow electoral vote margin. Given the incredible closeness it is again possible that we'll see our very questionable electoral voting system overtun the popular vote as it did in 2000. It is important to note that it's not clear how the popular voting would change if candidates could spend more time campaigning in their strongholds - something that is not done much in the electoral system because the battleground states are the key to the win.
Ohio is again emerging as the probable *key* battleground state, with polls showing McCain and Obama tied right now.
Ohio is again emerging as the probable *key* battleground state, with polls showing McCain and Obama tied right now.
Saturday, September 06, 2008
McCain v. Obama
As the dust and bluster of the two conventions dies down and polls appear to be closing we enter the final and decisive stretch of the Presidential election. If today's speech action is any indication of what is to come, we'll see McCain and Palin as a hard hitting tag-team combining a lot of patriotism talk with sharp criticism of "our opponent".
In what I think is a strategic blunder by the Obama campaign is appears to be failing to understand Palin's appeal to patriotism and positivism. People like to feel good about their country and the coming changes, yet Obama's talking points are moving to negative themes like the economy and the tired "more of the same" talk that McCain's choice of Palin's has effectively demolished.
Reagan's campaign used this strategy successfully against Carter in 1980 when he branded Carter as the "malaise" President and himself as the reformer.
I think that if the campaign themes offer America the choice between moving *away* from problems (Obama) vs moving *towards* solutions (McCain), we'll see McCain breath a whole new life into a campaign that initially appeared crippled by his choice of a very conservative and somewhat inexperienced running mate.
In what I think is a strategic blunder by the Obama campaign is appears to be failing to understand Palin's appeal to patriotism and positivism. People like to feel good about their country and the coming changes, yet Obama's talking points are moving to negative themes like the economy and the tired "more of the same" talk that McCain's choice of Palin's has effectively demolished.
Reagan's campaign used this strategy successfully against Carter in 1980 when he branded Carter as the "malaise" President and himself as the reformer.
I think that if the campaign themes offer America the choice between moving *away* from problems (Obama) vs moving *towards* solutions (McCain), we'll see McCain breath a whole new life into a campaign that initially appeared crippled by his choice of a very conservative and somewhat inexperienced running mate.
Thursday, September 04, 2008
McCain Obama in the polls
The best place to follow the Presidential polls is RealClearPolitics.com where their RCP running average of major polls is arguably the best indication of where things are headed in the Presidential Election this year.
Today's running average shows Obama with a lead in all but the tied CBS News results, an average lead of 4.4% over McCain. These results do NOT reflect the post Palin speech results which promise to be interesting. Voters are now being force fed about as much information about Sara Palin as for any candidate in history, and it appears the McCain campaign will seek to control her interviews in a structured way - at least based on the recent cancelled interview after CNN's Campbell Brown challenged McCain's PR guy to provide examples of Palin's relevant executive experience. When he failed to do so she seemed exasperated and later the campaign "punished" CNN by cancelling a Larry King interview with Palin. I'm guessing the strategy will be to have Palin come out swinging in controlled environments like speeches and FOX news interviews but avoid direct confrontations with what McCain will increasingly brand as "liberal sympathizers" in the media. I continue to think this strategy will backfire as mainstream Americans will come to think that Palin's very strident conservatism is not in line with the average American's more moderate views on government, abortion, gun control, and more.
CNN's Cafferty today showed Iowa polling results with Obama in huge lead, arguing that this indicates how popular Obama is with white voters, though he's foolishly failing to note that Obama spent an *enormous* amount of time in the Iowa Caucus process. That state is not representative of how most Americans will view him, and tells us little about how the battle for middle class rural voters will shake out in the coming election.
Today's running average shows Obama with a lead in all but the tied CBS News results, an average lead of 4.4% over McCain. These results do NOT reflect the post Palin speech results which promise to be interesting. Voters are now being force fed about as much information about Sara Palin as for any candidate in history, and it appears the McCain campaign will seek to control her interviews in a structured way - at least based on the recent cancelled interview after CNN's Campbell Brown challenged McCain's PR guy to provide examples of Palin's relevant executive experience. When he failed to do so she seemed exasperated and later the campaign "punished" CNN by cancelling a Larry King interview with Palin. I'm guessing the strategy will be to have Palin come out swinging in controlled environments like speeches and FOX news interviews but avoid direct confrontations with what McCain will increasingly brand as "liberal sympathizers" in the media. I continue to think this strategy will backfire as mainstream Americans will come to think that Palin's very strident conservatism is not in line with the average American's more moderate views on government, abortion, gun control, and more.
CNN's Cafferty today showed Iowa polling results with Obama in huge lead, arguing that this indicates how popular Obama is with white voters, though he's foolishly failing to note that Obama spent an *enormous* amount of time in the Iowa Caucus process. That state is not representative of how most Americans will view him, and tells us little about how the battle for middle class rural voters will shake out in the coming election.
Wednesday, September 03, 2008
Palin's Speech Enthusiam 40/45
CNN's poll of Palin Speech support appears to reflect party lines, though it would be interesting to see this broken down by party. Presumably Palin will need overwhelming support from Republicans for McCain's Palin strategy to work as she must peel off some Democratic support for the McCain Palin ticket to have much of a chance of success.
Most polls show Obama with a small lead of 3-5 percentage points, though the best measures are likely to come in a few weeks after all the convention excitement subsides.
How do you rate Republican VP choice Sarah Palin's convention speech?
Thumbs up 40% 22657
Thumbs down 45% 25051
Didn't watch 15% 8520
Most polls show Obama with a small lead of 3-5 percentage points, though the best measures are likely to come in a few weeks after all the convention excitement subsides.
How do you rate Republican VP choice Sarah Palin's convention speech?
Thumbs up 40% 22657
Thumbs down 45% 25051
Didn't watch 15% 8520
Who is that old guy next to Sarah Palin?
As the third day of the Republican Convention gets underway it's hard to hear much news about anything but McCain's VP pick Sarah Palin, Alaska's conservative reformist Governor who will speak tonight in Minneapolis - a speech that may attract as much attention as Barack Obama's rockstar-like show in Denver last week.
I'm starting to understand the simple and risky strategy behind McCain's very unusual choice of Palin, and I think it will prove to be a blunder of near Presidential proportions, but this remains to be seen.
One part of the strategy that has worked magnificently is how quickly Palin's VP nod has focused attention away from Obama and the Democratic Convention but Palin was also one of the very few (she may be the only) national polical figures who fit the following bill:
* Conservative. (esp. on pro life, pro guns, pro big military, anti social spending) McCain's lackluster support among many conservatives has been a major thorn in his side. Palin is *more* conservative than most of his conservative critics, and they clearly love this choice and will fight harder for this ticket than become disaffected by a McCain / Lieberman ticket which would have much better suited McCain's personal and political sensibilities.
* Female. McCain felt a woman on the ticket would help keep at least some disaffected Clinton supporters off balance and undecided. Despite the handful of Clinton-turned-Palin women FOX news will parade as an example of this strategy working, it's very unlikely that many of the core Clinton supporters will change party and ideological allegiance so dramatically. How many women will put gender above almost every other key Democratic issue? Very few.
* Young and attractive. McCain, more than anybody, is feeling the pain of going up against a rock star candidate. Palin's personal appeal helps shore up that front.
I'm starting to understand the simple and risky strategy behind McCain's very unusual choice of Palin, and I think it will prove to be a blunder of near Presidential proportions, but this remains to be seen.
One part of the strategy that has worked magnificently is how quickly Palin's VP nod has focused attention away from Obama and the Democratic Convention but Palin was also one of the very few (she may be the only) national polical figures who fit the following bill:
* Conservative. (esp. on pro life, pro guns, pro big military, anti social spending) McCain's lackluster support among many conservatives has been a major thorn in his side. Palin is *more* conservative than most of his conservative critics, and they clearly love this choice and will fight harder for this ticket than become disaffected by a McCain / Lieberman ticket which would have much better suited McCain's personal and political sensibilities.
* Female. McCain felt a woman on the ticket would help keep at least some disaffected Clinton supporters off balance and undecided. Despite the handful of Clinton-turned-Palin women FOX news will parade as an example of this strategy working, it's very unlikely that many of the core Clinton supporters will change party and ideological allegiance so dramatically. How many women will put gender above almost every other key Democratic issue? Very few.
* Young and attractive. McCain, more than anybody, is feeling the pain of going up against a rock star candidate. Palin's personal appeal helps shore up that front.
* Fighter. This last factor may be the single most important in the equation, and it is the one that helps make sense of what many see as a very strange McCain decision. McCain's personal style matches Palin's in several ways, and he sees Palin's unique situation with respect to her own baby Trig and her daughter's teen pregnancy as positive and provocative talking points in their fight for the presidency. Where some would say the Palin children challenges reflect some hypocrisy, McCain Palin will argue that the problems are not caused by teen pregnancy so much as missing dads and unsupportive families, and that right to life issues trump any potential disabilies - even the severe ones faced by Palin's baby son.
My view on this last factor is that it will probably backfire because it will be impossible for Palin to bring these talking points up without sounding like she is exploiting her family challenges for political gain. Only if she is directly challenged can she react dramatically and combatively and retain the sympathy of middle of the road Americans, and you won't see this type of direct attack. Democrats don't need to bring these issues up at all anyway. The media, always hungry for red meat analysis and conflict, will continue to report on them while Palin will struggle to find ways to counter those stories effectively since they won't be coming from a clear enemy.
End game? Palin gives Obama about 5-10 point advantage he would not have had if McCain had continued to focus on the "experience" issue and brought on an experienced VP.
Monday, September 01, 2008
Of Pregnancies and Palins.
It is painful to watch how hungrily the media has latched on to the Palin's pregnancy issue, even though you can argue that there is considerable irony or even hypocrisy when family values candidates appear to fail to even convince their own children to avoid the complex pitfalls of early sexual activity.
I would challenge the many conservatives who love to cast stones to spend a little more time looking in their mirror and at their candidate's kids. In a contest for "most responsible kids" you'd be hard pressed to find better examples than the kids of Kerry, Clinton, Biden who sure appear to believe more in personal accountability than their Republican counterparts who are not "bad kids" but sure do not seem to act as mature or responsible. But this is not all that relevant to the national debate (unless you try to proclaim that family values candidates make better parents).
My take on most of this is that the character assassinations that dominate politics (since the founders!) are pretty much a bunch of crap as far as I'm concerned. People like Palin, Obama, McCain, Biden all have some questionable stuff in the closet but nothing that suggests to me they don't have the best interests of the country at heart.
There are real differences in how we should move ahead, but I'm very confident *any* of those four people could steer our clumsy ship of state USS USA competently. I'm a big fan of Bill Clinton and JFK's intellects, but both made near-catastrophic errors of judgement many times in their presidencies.
The solution? Most decisions are best left to the experience of a good cabinet, and I think we should vote for each of those positions rather than let the president pick them paying too much attention to ideology and not enough the expertise, brilliance, and experience the cabinet deserves.
I would challenge the many conservatives who love to cast stones to spend a little more time looking in their mirror and at their candidate's kids. In a contest for "most responsible kids" you'd be hard pressed to find better examples than the kids of Kerry, Clinton, Biden who sure appear to believe more in personal accountability than their Republican counterparts who are not "bad kids" but sure do not seem to act as mature or responsible. But this is not all that relevant to the national debate (unless you try to proclaim that family values candidates make better parents).
My take on most of this is that the character assassinations that dominate politics (since the founders!) are pretty much a bunch of crap as far as I'm concerned. People like Palin, Obama, McCain, Biden all have some questionable stuff in the closet but nothing that suggests to me they don't have the best interests of the country at heart.
There are real differences in how we should move ahead, but I'm very confident *any* of those four people could steer our clumsy ship of state USS USA competently. I'm a big fan of Bill Clinton and JFK's intellects, but both made near-catastrophic errors of judgement many times in their presidencies.
The solution? Most decisions are best left to the experience of a good cabinet, and I think we should vote for each of those positions rather than let the president pick them paying too much attention to ideology and not enough the expertise, brilliance, and experience the cabinet deserves.
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Republican Convention Plans Change
On the Eve of Hurricane Gustav's landfall near New Orleans the Republicans have changed Convention plans though the details appear to remain fluid. President Bush and VP Cheney will not appear tomorrow in Minneapolis as planned, and other major speakers like the Governor of Louisiana will not be in attendance either.
The latest reports suggest the convention may only last one day, Presumably to nominate John McCain, and then be postponed to another date. Strategically this may actually have the advantage of giving the Republicans a monster event with monster media coverage much closer to the election than is usual.
Gustav is about to bring flooding and high wind to the Mississipi and Louisiana coastlines and the convention would have been both interrupted for Hurricane news and have been a conspicuous "celebration" in the midst of potentially another major storm tragedy for the Gulf Coast.
The latest reports suggest the convention may only last one day, Presumably to nominate John McCain, and then be postponed to another date. Strategically this may actually have the advantage of giving the Republicans a monster event with monster media coverage much closer to the election than is usual.
Gustav is about to bring flooding and high wind to the Mississipi and Louisiana coastlines and the convention would have been both interrupted for Hurricane news and have been a conspicuous "celebration" in the midst of potentially another major storm tragedy for the Gulf Coast.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Biden v. Palin Round ONE
Joe Biden - World Economic Forum Extraordinary Annual Meeting Jordan 2003
Originally uploaded by World Economic Forum
McCain may actually have a challenge (or advantage?) being eclipsed by Palin who may emerge at the "rock star" of that team while Obama keeps his star persona intact with his pick of Joe Biden whose demeanor is unlikely to overshadow that of his running mate the way Palin may overshadow McCain's personality and style.
Sarah Palin's Official Website & Blogs
Almost everybody is asking "Who is Sarah Palin" so I thought I'd provide a list of the best links, including some to her official websites that come from the state of Alaska where she is the Governor.
McCain's Palin pick is certainly successful at focusing attention on her and away from the Democratic Convention and Obama which have completly dominated the US news cycle for the past four days. Unlike Obama's VP Joe Biden, Palin has a very "new and interesting" appeal to the media, though I remain skeptical that Hillary Clinton supporters are likely to change their party allegiances to vote for somebody who is even more conservative than McCain.
Alaska Governor - Sarah Palin's official web site
Sarah Palin - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Alaska Governor Bio - Sarah Palin
Sarah Palin Profile by Fred Barnes at Weekly Standard in 2007. Barnes is a conservative pundit who speaks for many Republicans in the conservative wing of the party, and may have been a significant influence in McCain's decision.
Palin at Politico (a critical Palin piece)
Palin at Huffington Post (critical)
Palin from Michelle Malkin (a favorable Palin Piece)
McCain's Palin pick is certainly successful at focusing attention on her and away from the Democratic Convention and Obama which have completly dominated the US news cycle for the past four days. Unlike Obama's VP Joe Biden, Palin has a very "new and interesting" appeal to the media, though I remain skeptical that Hillary Clinton supporters are likely to change their party allegiances to vote for somebody who is even more conservative than McCain.
Alaska Governor - Sarah Palin's official web site
Sarah Palin - Wikipedia, the free encyclopediaAlaska Governor Bio - Sarah Palin
Sarah Palin Profile by Fred Barnes at Weekly Standard in 2007. Barnes is a conservative pundit who speaks for many Republicans in the conservative wing of the party, and may have been a significant influence in McCain's decision.
Palin at Politico (a critical Palin piece)
Palin at Huffington Post (critical)
McCain picks Palin as his VP running mate
In a move that seems to have surprised almost everyone, John McCain has picked Alaska Governor Sarah Palin for his Vice Presidential running mate.
The announcement came this morning, strategically undermining a news day that otherwise would have been filled with Democratic Convention imagery making Barack Obama look as much like a rock star as a presidential candidate. The pick also is clearly an attempt to chip away at what appears to be Obama's weakness in appealing to some Hillary Clinton supporters.
Palin is a conservative who is pro-life, favors drilling in Alaska (ironically McCain has opposed this but I think will change his position after the election), and is a strong advocate for gun rights.
The McCain campaign strategy here appears to be an attempt to please the conservative base - many of whom like Palin a lot for her outspoken and conservative ideas about Government - while also appealing to what appears to be a minor backlash among Democrats against Obama for not choosing Hillary Clinton as his running mate.
It's going to be very interesting watching the Biden - Palin debates, though I can't help but think Palin will struggle to show how she can match Biden's foreign policy and military experience. Biden will be hard to swiftboat given his affable nature and non-confrontatational history in the Senate, where Palin's youth, experience, and good looks may hinder her ability to connect with voters.
The announcement came this morning, strategically undermining a news day that otherwise would have been filled with Democratic Convention imagery making Barack Obama look as much like a rock star as a presidential candidate. The pick also is clearly an attempt to chip away at what appears to be Obama's weakness in appealing to some Hillary Clinton supporters.
Palin is a conservative who is pro-life, favors drilling in Alaska (ironically McCain has opposed this but I think will change his position after the election), and is a strong advocate for gun rights.
The McCain campaign strategy here appears to be an attempt to please the conservative base - many of whom like Palin a lot for her outspoken and conservative ideas about Government - while also appealing to what appears to be a minor backlash among Democrats against Obama for not choosing Hillary Clinton as his running mate.
It's going to be very interesting watching the Biden - Palin debates, though I can't help but think Palin will struggle to show how she can match Biden's foreign policy and military experience. Biden will be hard to swiftboat given his affable nature and non-confrontatational history in the Senate, where Palin's youth, experience, and good looks may hinder her ability to connect with voters.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
McCain to pick Meg Whitman ?
Update: Sarah Palin is the McCain VP Pick
As the Democratic National Convention wraps up tonight with what promises to be a near "rock star" event featuring Barack Obama, John McCain is preparing to announce his pick for Vice Presendential running mate tomorrow at a large rally in Ohio.
President Picker says that McCain will probably pick former EBAY CEO and billionaire Meg Whitman both thanks to her strong economic background in the private sector and the appeal a woman will bring to the ticket for the millions of older women who have suggested they'll either support McCain or not vote at all after their disappointment with the failure of the Hillary Clinton campaign.
For McCain, this is a complex strategy but I think it's a viable one. Polls are showing that many Clinton supporters, especially women, are feeling disaffected. There is arguably no better way to encourage them to either switch to McCain or stay away from the polls than to force them to vote *against* a woman on the ticket. In all of US history there has only been a single woman on a presidential campaign ticket - Geraldine Ferarro with Walter Mondale almost three decades ago.
Will women vote for McCain only because he's got a woman on the ticket? A few will, but more importantly from a strategic point of view the choice of Whitman will help keep the disaffection alive on the Democratic side as a constant reminder to women of Obama's decision that he would *not* place Hillary Clinton on his own ticket, leaving women out of the Presidential power game yet again.
As the Democratic National Convention wraps up tonight with what promises to be a near "rock star" event featuring Barack Obama, John McCain is preparing to announce his pick for Vice Presendential running mate tomorrow at a large rally in Ohio.
President Picker says that McCain will probably pick former EBAY CEO and billionaire Meg Whitman both thanks to her strong economic background in the private sector and the appeal a woman will bring to the ticket for the millions of older women who have suggested they'll either support McCain or not vote at all after their disappointment with the failure of the Hillary Clinton campaign.
For McCain, this is a complex strategy but I think it's a viable one. Polls are showing that many Clinton supporters, especially women, are feeling disaffected. There is arguably no better way to encourage them to either switch to McCain or stay away from the polls than to force them to vote *against* a woman on the ticket. In all of US history there has only been a single woman on a presidential campaign ticket - Geraldine Ferarro with Walter Mondale almost three decades ago.
Will women vote for McCain only because he's got a woman on the ticket? A few will, but more importantly from a strategic point of view the choice of Whitman will help keep the disaffection alive on the Democratic side as a constant reminder to women of Obama's decision that he would *not* place Hillary Clinton on his own ticket, leaving women out of the Presidential power game yet again.
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Obama Nominated by Acclamation at Democratic National Convention
(not reporting live from convention)
Barack Obama was just nominated by acclamation after an appeal for that by Senator Hillary Clinton as the New York Delegation prepared to cast their votes.
Party Chair Nancy Pelosi then called for the yes vote and after an enthusiastic yes crowd shout, whe did not wait for any "no" votes to be shouted and quickly concluded the nomination. Rules of order meant that Obama then would officially accept the nomination.
It's day three of the Democratic Convention and there has been little to suggest the powerful levels of discontent in the party a few months ago as Barack Obama narrowly beat out Hillary Clinton for the nomination.
Barack Obama was just nominated by acclamation after an appeal for that by Senator Hillary Clinton as the New York Delegation prepared to cast their votes.
Party Chair Nancy Pelosi then called for the yes vote and after an enthusiastic yes crowd shout, whe did not wait for any "no" votes to be shouted and quickly concluded the nomination. Rules of order meant that Obama then would officially accept the nomination.
It's day three of the Democratic Convention and there has been little to suggest the powerful levels of discontent in the party a few months ago as Barack Obama narrowly beat out Hillary Clinton for the nomination.
Democratic Convention Day 2
(not blogged from the convention)
Day 2 of the Democratic Convention brought us the much anticipated speech of Hillary Clinton, which to all but the sharpest critics was a very powerful endorsement of both the party ideals and Barack Obama.
After a touching mother and daughter introduction, Senator Clinton gave what I felt was probably the most powerful and the most important speech of her entire career, essentially fully conceding the election to Obama and expressing in no uncertain terms that her supporters should support him now.
Although cynics would say Clinton had no choice here because to fight would have been to lose future party support, I think these relationships are fairly well defined from the outset, and Clinton has known for some time that she'd be backing Obama pretty much as she has for the past several months. The election will not hinge on Clinton support - rather Obama must try to convince the approximately 10% of Clintonians who say they will now support McCain that although Clinton was their choice, Obama is their man now. Given that Clinton and Obama's politics are very similar this is unlikely to be a problem.
Tonight there are likely to be some minor Clinton supporter skirmishes but it will be very hard to stand in the way of what has so far been a very positive and powerful message of support for Obama from all corners of the Democratic Party, including a simply brilliant speech by Michelle Obama on Monday night.
Day 2 of the Democratic Convention brought us the much anticipated speech of Hillary Clinton, which to all but the sharpest critics was a very powerful endorsement of both the party ideals and Barack Obama.
After a touching mother and daughter introduction, Senator Clinton gave what I felt was probably the most powerful and the most important speech of her entire career, essentially fully conceding the election to Obama and expressing in no uncertain terms that her supporters should support him now.
Although cynics would say Clinton had no choice here because to fight would have been to lose future party support, I think these relationships are fairly well defined from the outset, and Clinton has known for some time that she'd be backing Obama pretty much as she has for the past several months. The election will not hinge on Clinton support - rather Obama must try to convince the approximately 10% of Clintonians who say they will now support McCain that although Clinton was their choice, Obama is their man now. Given that Clinton and Obama's politics are very similar this is unlikely to be a problem.
Tonight there are likely to be some minor Clinton supporter skirmishes but it will be very hard to stand in the way of what has so far been a very positive and powerful message of support for Obama from all corners of the Democratic Party, including a simply brilliant speech by Michelle Obama on Monday night.
Monday, August 25, 2008
Democratic Convention Day One
As Michelle Obama prepares to address the Democratic National Convention in Denver the pundits are talking about the tone of the convention which so far has been very much a sort of cozy, feel good affair rather than a presentation of the talking points most strategists think the Democrats must hammer home to win the election - points such as economic challenges and the Iraq war.
However it appears to me the strategy is solid, and is to present Obama as a friendly and unifying force rather than a combative one. Appealing to people's desire for change is complicated because many of our natural tendencies
are to keep comfortable with the status quo and view agents of change with great skepticism. This is a natural and functional response and playing off this tendency will form much of the McCain strategy moving forward. Already Fox news and other conservative spokespeople are trying to paint Obama as an unknown force of change - almost as a foreigner rather than a dedicated pubic servant.
Thus I think the counter strategy by the Democrats is to make people feel comfortable with Obama. Look for an almost constant dialog promoting this agenda - Obama as a composed, friendly, stable fellow American who will make the changes many Americans feel are needed in the country.
Michelle Obama's delivery is brilliant so far - she's polished and confident, yet speaking almost conversationally with the very enthusiastic Denver crowd. Her mother and brother's introduction was touching and it is not hard to believe Michelle Obama is herself an exceptional example of the American dream.
John King at CNN is very correctly noting that the idea is to make a connection for people who otherwise see little in common with Obama.
David Gergen "She rescued the evening for the Democrats"
However it appears to me the strategy is solid, and is to present Obama as a friendly and unifying force rather than a combative one. Appealing to people's desire for change is complicated because many of our natural tendencies
are to keep comfortable with the status quo and view agents of change with great skepticism. This is a natural and functional response and playing off this tendency will form much of the McCain strategy moving forward. Already Fox news and other conservative spokespeople are trying to paint Obama as an unknown force of change - almost as a foreigner rather than a dedicated pubic servant.
Thus I think the counter strategy by the Democrats is to make people feel comfortable with Obama. Look for an almost constant dialog promoting this agenda - Obama as a composed, friendly, stable fellow American who will make the changes many Americans feel are needed in the country.
Michelle Obama's delivery is brilliant so far - she's polished and confident, yet speaking almost conversationally with the very enthusiastic Denver crowd. Her mother and brother's introduction was touching and it is not hard to believe Michelle Obama is herself an exceptional example of the American dream.
John King at CNN is very correctly noting that the idea is to make a connection for people who otherwise see little in common with Obama.
David Gergen "She rescued the evening for the Democrats"
Sunday, August 24, 2008
Obama VP is Joe Biden
In a pick that hasn't generated all that much buzz or press, Barack Obama has picked Delaware Senator Joe Biden as his Presidential running mate. The choice seemed to fly in the face of some conventional wisdom about running mates in that Obama and Biden share a lot of ideology and Biden is unlikely to attract many more southern or moderate voters to the Obama camp.
Near the eve of the Democratic Convention we find Obama and McCain equal in most polls, perhaps in large part because, as CNN polling director Holland has noted:
"The number of Clinton Democrats who say they would vote for McCain has gone up 11 points since June, enough to account for most, although not all, of the support McCain has gained in that time," Holland said.
Near the eve of the Democratic Convention we find Obama and McCain equal in most polls, perhaps in large part because, as CNN polling director Holland has noted:
"The number of Clinton Democrats who say they would vote for McCain has gone up 11 points since June, enough to account for most, although not all, of the support McCain has gained in that time," Holland said.
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