It is not clear that Tuesday's mega election event will bring clear primary winners but certainly it'll bring a lot of excitement to the US Presidential campaign.
Most pundits are predicting a McCain win for the Republicans but many won't pick a winner in the Clinton Obama race, which polls indicate may be tightening over this last week. Obama took in a spectacular 30+ million dollars in January. Only McCain appears somewhat strapped for cash as we head into the time when candidates are spending millions every day to spread their word to a national audience. I'm guessing Romney will have a superbowl ad and perhaps others as well, though even massive TV time seems unlikely to have a huge impact this late in the game. That said, many voters make up their mind in the last days or even minutes of the election. In that case it would not hurt to have made a positive impact on Sunday.
Saturday, February 02, 2008
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Arnold Schwarzenegger will endorse John McCain
Popular California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will endorse John McCain, probably this week. This comes at a critical time in the Republican primary and with only Romney and McCain left as serious candidates. Although Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee remain in the race neither of them is polling at anything like the levels of McCain and Romney, or can run enough ads to turn things around in time for "Super Tuesday" when many states will cast votes.
Despite what most felt was a strong debate performance last night, Romney's chances appear to be dimming as John McCain scoops up more prominent endorsments. There is some confusion right now as to Romney's campaign spending plans - some reports suggest he'll have a major media push in California and perhaps nationally but others say his national spend will be modest, perhaps an acknowledgement that McCain is looking like the likely nominee.
Despite what most felt was a strong debate performance last night, Romney's chances appear to be dimming as John McCain scoops up more prominent endorsments. There is some confusion right now as to Romney's campaign spending plans - some reports suggest he'll have a major media push in California and perhaps nationally but others say his national spend will be modest, perhaps an acknowledgement that McCain is looking like the likely nominee.
Arnold Schwarzenegger will endorse John McCain
Popular California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will endorse John McCain, probably this week. This comes at a critical time in the Republican primary and with only Romney and McCain left as serious candidates. Although Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee remain in the race neither of them is polling at anything like the levels of McCain and Romney, or can run enough ads to turn things around in time for "Super Tuesday" when many states will cast votes.
Despite what most felt was a strong debate performance last night, Romney's chances appear to be dimming as John McCain scoops up more prominent endorsments. There is some confusion right now as to Romney's campaign spending plans - some reports suggest he'll have a major media push in California and perhaps nationally but others say his national spend will be modest, perhaps an acknowledgement that McCain is looking like the likely nominee.
Schwarzenegger
Despite what most felt was a strong debate performance last night, Romney's chances appear to be dimming as John McCain scoops up more prominent endorsments. There is some confusion right now as to Romney's campaign spending plans - some reports suggest he'll have a major media push in California and perhaps nationally but others say his national spend will be modest, perhaps an acknowledgement that McCain is looking like the likely nominee.
Schwarzenegger
Twitter the President? Nope.
Tech President wonders if Twitter could be the breakout technology for the 2008 Election.
Ummm - no. No way. Twitter has far too few participants to matter in a national election. Sure it should be part of a social media strategy - probably more so than the weak current usage I've seen from several campaigns using proxys to submit for their candidates as twitterees, but only Myspace and Facebook have the huge national reach that would make them worth a lot of attention by a candidate.
Ummm - no. No way. Twitter has far too few participants to matter in a national election. Sure it should be part of a social media strategy - probably more so than the weak current usage I've seen from several campaigns using proxys to submit for their candidates as twitterees, but only Myspace and Facebook have the huge national reach that would make them worth a lot of attention by a candidate.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Is Nader Nuts?
Ralph Nader:
John Edwards, the banner of Democratic Party populism, is dropping out, and Dennis Kucinich dropped out earlier, so in terms of voters who are at least interested in having major areas of injustice, depravations, and solutions discussed in a presidential campaign, they might be interested in my exploratory effort...
I'd suggest there is no way Nader could even reach the pitiful support levels of Dennis Kucinich, and Nader's bizarre notion that he can is yet another indication of his failing mental coherence and relevance to the national political scene.
Nader is correct that the old style populism embraced by Edwards and pseudo-socialist economics embraced by Kucinich match Nader's odd worldview, but I don't think Nader understands the degree to which his former support base has eroded, and also the strategic errors he made by failing to negotiate a deal with Al Gore - a deal that would have made Gore the president in 2000 and could have given Nader huge influence in certain areas.
John Edwards, the banner of Democratic Party populism, is dropping out, and Dennis Kucinich dropped out earlier, so in terms of voters who are at least interested in having major areas of injustice, depravations, and solutions discussed in a presidential campaign, they might be interested in my exploratory effort...
I'd suggest there is no way Nader could even reach the pitiful support levels of Dennis Kucinich, and Nader's bizarre notion that he can is yet another indication of his failing mental coherence and relevance to the national political scene.
Nader is correct that the old style populism embraced by Edwards and pseudo-socialist economics embraced by Kucinich match Nader's odd worldview, but I don't think Nader understands the degree to which his former support base has eroded, and also the strategic errors he made by failing to negotiate a deal with Al Gore - a deal that would have made Gore the president in 2000 and could have given Nader huge influence in certain areas.
John Edwards drops out of Democratic Primary
In a move that has surprised many pundits, John Edwards has dropped out of the democratic race. In New Orleans he said that Obama and Clinton had both pledged to make ending poverty a key cause of their campaigns:
"they will make ending poverty central to their campaign for the presidency."
"This is the cause of my life and I now have their commitment to engage in this cause,"
It's not clear how much Edwards support will flow to Clinton and Obama though the next set of tracking polls should be very interesting. I'd wildly guess it'll split about equally between Clinton and Obama.
Dick Morris was suggesting that the Florida results indicated Obama is moving up fast on Clinton, citing the fact that those who made a last minute decision were split between the two where earlier deciders went for Clinton. I'm not clear he's got the math right on this however, since this tell us something about "last minute deciders" rather than about the broader electorate. He felt this was like a tracking poll trending strongly in Obama's favor, but I think that is not mathematically sound reasoning.
"they will make ending poverty central to their campaign for the presidency."
"This is the cause of my life and I now have their commitment to engage in this cause,"
It's not clear how much Edwards support will flow to Clinton and Obama though the next set of tracking polls should be very interesting. I'd wildly guess it'll split about equally between Clinton and Obama.
Dick Morris was suggesting that the Florida results indicated Obama is moving up fast on Clinton, citing the fact that those who made a last minute decision were split between the two where earlier deciders went for Clinton. I'm not clear he's got the math right on this however, since this tell us something about "last minute deciders" rather than about the broader electorate. He felt this was like a tracking poll trending strongly in Obama's favor, but I think that is not mathematically sound reasoning.
McCain Wins Florida by 5%
John McCain soundly beat second place Mitt Romney in Florida, winning 36% of the vote in that key Republican primary. Giuliani will now drop out and endorse McCain.
Clinton "won" Florida as well for the democrats, but the delegates there currently are not eligible to participate at the national convention though many suggest they eventually will be allowed. In fact this could become a key point if the race gets close. A supreme irony would be a democratic convention where the Florida delegate ruling would determine the outcome.
Heading into mega primary Tuesday we find the Democrats and Republicans in two fairly close races between Clinton and Obama and McCain and Romney. Although I'm not nearly as confident as before I still think Clinton will win after a strong Tuesday showing. I'm not nearly as confident about a Romney victory - something seemed to derail his upward trend and it may simply be that McCain is a known quantity and that comforts voters.
Clinton "won" Florida as well for the democrats, but the delegates there currently are not eligible to participate at the national convention though many suggest they eventually will be allowed. In fact this could become a key point if the race gets close. A supreme irony would be a democratic convention where the Florida delegate ruling would determine the outcome.
Heading into mega primary Tuesday we find the Democrats and Republicans in two fairly close races between Clinton and Obama and McCain and Romney. Although I'm not nearly as confident as before I still think Clinton will win after a strong Tuesday showing. I'm not nearly as confident about a Romney victory - something seemed to derail his upward trend and it may simply be that McCain is a known quantity and that comforts voters.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Florida Primary: McCain vs Romney will be close
Most pundits are predicting a McCain win for Florida. I have not followed this one very close but my gut says that Romney will win and by a decent margin. Why? New Hampshire's polling fiasco suggest there may be a hidden voting block that does not participate in the polls but does participate in the elections. If Clinton's surprise NH victory is any indication this block could be "Senior Women" who are a large block that votes religiously. Who will senior Republican women support in Florida? Maybe McCain because he's an appealing character, but I think they'll vote disproportionately for the young, vigorous, and handsome Romney who appears far more "Presidential" and in command than McCain, who is older than many voters.
But I would not bet on this outcome....too many variables in play.
But I would not bet on this outcome....too many variables in play.
Betting on the President
Intrade is an actual gambling venue where you can bet on the various candidates to win primaries and the general election. It these gamblers are right, we'll see a McCain v Clinton General Election in the fall. At Intrade, both Obama and Romney only have about a third of the betting action chance to win their respective primaries.
Intrade odds on the 2008 elections
Intrade odds on the 2008 elections
Monday, January 28, 2008
Superdelegates are almost 20% of the vote in Democratic primary.
Underreported in the mainstream media is the significant role played by Democratic "superdelegates" in the primary process. 20% of the delegates at the convention are superdelegates. A list of these delegates along with their endorsements so far is HERE. Considering Clinton's large lead in the polls her clear superdelegate lead is also very significant. In fact one could argue that the superdelegate approach - by design - helps give a significant edge to political insiders like Hilary Clinton.
Clinton v Obama on February 5th. Mainstream media analysis has gone from worthless to opportunistic.
President Picker still thinks Hilary Clinton will be the nominee of the Democrats, and that the victory will be clear next Tuesday after the national primaries. Obama's speeches are both inspired and we think he's credible, but several factors continue to favor Clinton:
Polling shows Clinton with substantial voting leads almost across the board. RealClearPolitics.com has the best polling coverage and Clinton looks fairly solid. It'll be interesting to see how the Kennedy endorsement of Obama today affects the tracking polls tomorrow, but I'm guessing this was a media event that'll have little national impact on Obama's poll numbers.
So why does the media keep gushing over relatively insignificant events and aspects of the race? Because they LOVE a horserace, and they've helped make one happen by overstating Obama's chances, overstating Bill Clinton's positive and negative influences, and overstating the tensions in what has been a remarkably civil and dignified campaign.
With several exceptions such as the always frank and honest Pat Buchanon, many Republican analysts appear to me to be nothing short of deceptive with their glowing pseudo-endorsements of Obama, hoping to either create a weaker opponent for their Republican preference or (more likely) begin the tear-down of Hilary Clinton as early as possible.
Predictions? As always we are happy to give them. Clinton will consolidate here position and effectively win the democratic primary next week. Romney and McCain will remain close and that race will go down to the wire, perhaps depending on last minute negative campaign tactics, and probably going to the Republican convenion for a winner.
Look for Clinton to win very graciously and bring Obama on as her VP nominee quickly, consolidating the votes of two key groups in the general election: Women and African Americans.
Polling shows Clinton with substantial voting leads almost across the board. RealClearPolitics.com has the best polling coverage and Clinton looks fairly solid. It'll be interesting to see how the Kennedy endorsement of Obama today affects the tracking polls tomorrow, but I'm guessing this was a media event that'll have little national impact on Obama's poll numbers.
So why does the media keep gushing over relatively insignificant events and aspects of the race? Because they LOVE a horserace, and they've helped make one happen by overstating Obama's chances, overstating Bill Clinton's positive and negative influences, and overstating the tensions in what has been a remarkably civil and dignified campaign.
With several exceptions such as the always frank and honest Pat Buchanon, many Republican analysts appear to me to be nothing short of deceptive with their glowing pseudo-endorsements of Obama, hoping to either create a weaker opponent for their Republican preference or (more likely) begin the tear-down of Hilary Clinton as early as possible.
Predictions? As always we are happy to give them. Clinton will consolidate here position and effectively win the democratic primary next week. Romney and McCain will remain close and that race will go down to the wire, perhaps depending on last minute negative campaign tactics, and probably going to the Republican convenion for a winner.
Look for Clinton to win very graciously and bring Obama on as her VP nominee quickly, consolidating the votes of two key groups in the general election: Women and African Americans.
Kennedy Endorses Obama
Ted Kennedy has endorsed Barack Obama. Although most of the media, almost gushing over the announcement, suggests this is a very positive development for the Obama campaign, I think that on balance this may not bode well for Obama.
First, the Kennedy endorsement consolidates Obama's position as the most liberal of the two key players. Yet he was already very popular among the most liberal factions of the Democratic party. Strategically, how will this endorsement affect the votes of the suburban soccer moms and moderate Democrats? I'd suggest it will push them firmly into the Clinton camp. Also significant is that even if Obama wins the Democratic nomination it's clear that painting himself as a "left wing liberal" will not help in the general election. The Democrat is *almost certain* to get the liberal vote regardless of the candidate lineups on either the Democrat or Republican side. The key battleground in the election will be the undecided, indecisive middle of the road voters who I predict want to see balanced and moderate forces prevail. As GW Bush did in 2000, Obama has masterfully portrayed himself as a "reach across the aisle" candidate. Kennedy's endorsement will not lend much support to this assertion.
First, the Kennedy endorsement consolidates Obama's position as the most liberal of the two key players. Yet he was already very popular among the most liberal factions of the Democratic party. Strategically, how will this endorsement affect the votes of the suburban soccer moms and moderate Democrats? I'd suggest it will push them firmly into the Clinton camp. Also significant is that even if Obama wins the Democratic nomination it's clear that painting himself as a "left wing liberal" will not help in the general election. The Democrat is *almost certain* to get the liberal vote regardless of the candidate lineups on either the Democrat or Republican side. The key battleground in the election will be the undecided, indecisive middle of the road voters who I predict want to see balanced and moderate forces prevail. As GW Bush did in 2000, Obama has masterfully portrayed himself as a "reach across the aisle" candidate. Kennedy's endorsement will not lend much support to this assertion.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Obama wins big in South Carolina
Barack Obama crushed his two opponents in today's South Carolina primary, winning 55% of the vote over Hilary Clinton and John Edwards who had only 45% of the vote - combined. Although an Obama win was expected in South Carolina the size of the win was not. This huge percentage victory will inject a lot of enthusiasm and momentum into an already strong effort by the Obama campaign.
February 5th's massive primary day, where 22 states are in play, may not even be the decisive event now that the race is so close.
February 5th's massive primary day, where 22 states are in play, may not even be the decisive event now that the race is so close.
Friday, January 25, 2008
Kucinich out
Democratic Presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich has dropped out of the race. Lackluster poll numbers combined with a recent legal confrontation with MSNBC which fought hard to keep Kucinich out of the recent Democratic Debate. The New York Times reports on that conflict, where MSNBC wanted to exclude Kucinich after earlier invites and Kucinich arguing that this was a breach of contract. Initially the ruling was in Kucinich's favor, but appeared at last minute to be overtuned by legal appeal.
This leaves the democratics with three candidates: Clinton, Edwards, and Obama. Although Clinton still leads nationally Obama is now poised to win Saturday's South Carolina debate which may edge him even closer to polling parity with Clinton as we move into what may prove to be the definitive day in the election: February 5.
This leaves the democratics with three candidates: Clinton, Edwards, and Obama. Although Clinton still leads nationally Obama is now poised to win Saturday's South Carolina debate which may edge him even closer to polling parity with Clinton as we move into what may prove to be the definitive day in the election: February 5.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Thompson out of Republican Primary
Fred Thompson has dropped out of the race after a weak showing in the South Carolina primary on Saturday behind John McCain and Mike Huckabee. This was a predictable development, especially given Thompson's lackluster attitude towards the race. It almost appeared as if his candidacy was mostly the result of pressure from friends rather than a passion Thompson had to win.
Saturday, January 19, 2008
McCain poised to win South Carolina, Thompson to drop soon.
John McCain appears poised to win South Carolina as early returns have McCain leading Huckabee with some 38% of the So. Carolina vote.
This should be seen as very encouraging for the McCain campaign given the conservatism of this state. If Huckabee can't win in So. Carolina it's an indication that his early Iowa victory was more from good strategy than hidden high levels of national support.
Thompson appears in line for a 4th place showing behind Romney, which will almost certainly lead to him dropping out of the race by tomorrow.
Note that the Democratic primary in So. Carolina is *next* Saturday.
This should be seen as very encouraging for the McCain campaign given the conservatism of this state. If Huckabee can't win in So. Carolina it's an indication that his early Iowa victory was more from good strategy than hidden high levels of national support.
Thompson appears in line for a 4th place showing behind Romney, which will almost certainly lead to him dropping out of the race by tomorrow.
Note that the Democratic primary in So. Carolina is *next* Saturday.
Romney, Clinton in Nevada
Mitt Romney and Hilary Clinton are the Nevada Caucus winners. This is something of a surprise victory for Clinton who effectively lost a court battle to keep the cuacuses out of the Casinos, where Obama appeared to have a strong edge given his endorsement by the powerful Culinary Workers Union.
South Carolina Returns are now coming in with McCain and Huckabee close.
Duncan Hunter has dropped out, and I expect Thompson to drop by tomorrow morning after what appears to be a poor showing in South Carolina.
South Carolina Returns are now coming in with McCain and Huckabee close.
Duncan Hunter has dropped out, and I expect Thompson to drop by tomorrow morning after what appears to be a poor showing in South Carolina.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Casino Caucusing to go forward in Nevada Primary
The court has ruled that Caucusing will be allowed in Casinos as originally planned for the Nevada democratic primary, giving Barack Obama a huge boost in his effort to win that state. The Teachers Union has challenged the decision on the grounds that it was not fair to give Casino workers such easy access away from their districts while other workers won't have the same benefit, but the court has rejected that argument.
Look for Obama to win Nevada given his endorsement by the Culinary Workers union, a major political force in the state and in the key city of Las Vegas.
Look for Obama to win Nevada given his endorsement by the Culinary Workers union, a major political force in the state and in the key city of Las Vegas.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Romney wins Michigan
Mitt Romney has won the Michigan primary handily, giving him a victory many saw as essential to keeping a strong candidacy alive. McCain ran second with about 30% to Romney's 39%.
The mixed results of the initial primaries are leaving the Republican nomination up for grabs, with Huckabee, Romney, McCain, and Giuliani all considered strong possible contenders. Even Thompson, with a strong South Carolina primary showing, could see a campaign surge though Thompson appears a very long shot at this point.
President Picker still thinks Romney has the edge due to superficial appearance issues and, most importantly, cash on hand, which for Romney is effectively his own bank on which he can draw as needed. That said it seems evangelical voters have been reluctant to embrace Romney and McCain's straight talk has charged his campaign, so it's anybody's race now.
The mixed results of the initial primaries are leaving the Republican nomination up for grabs, with Huckabee, Romney, McCain, and Giuliani all considered strong possible contenders. Even Thompson, with a strong South Carolina primary showing, could see a campaign surge though Thompson appears a very long shot at this point.
President Picker still thinks Romney has the edge due to superficial appearance issues and, most importantly, cash on hand, which for Romney is effectively his own bank on which he can draw as needed. That said it seems evangelical voters have been reluctant to embrace Romney and McCain's straight talk has charged his campaign, so it's anybody's race now.
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Michigan results shortly. Kucinich may debate after all.
The Michigan primary results will be in shortly. For the Dems this is almost a non-event due to national party penalties which are not going to count Michigan votes. Only Clinton is on the ballot, she will "win" handily, but get no delegates for the nomination.
The Republican Michigan vote is far more significant. Romney arguably must win the state of Michigan - where he and his wife grew up - to demonstrate his national viability. Polls show Romney and McCain in a close race.
Tonights Democratic Debate in Las Vegas was originally to feature Dennis Kucinich but poor showings were to leave him out. However a judge ruled today that Kucinich must either speak or the judge may order an injunction to stop the debate altogether. Look for Kucinich to be included at the last minute.
The Republican Michigan vote is far more significant. Romney arguably must win the state of Michigan - where he and his wife grew up - to demonstrate his national viability. Polls show Romney and McCain in a close race.
Tonights Democratic Debate in Las Vegas was originally to feature Dennis Kucinich but poor showings were to leave him out. However a judge ruled today that Kucinich must either speak or the judge may order an injunction to stop the debate altogether. Look for Kucinich to be included at the last minute.
Monday, January 14, 2008
McCain leading Republicans in national primary polling
Polling problems have become a conspicuous feature of American politics, but generally they still are useful as predictors and John McCain's campaign must be thrilled with the latest reports from CNN which have McCain leading nationally by about 10 points over Mike Huckabee.
Part of the challenge with national polls is that they may be subject to a lot of simple "name recognition" bias - ie people are saying their favorite candidate is simply the one they've heard of. As the TV ads hit and the race heats up in the dozens of states with primaries coming up in a matter of weeks, we are likely to see a narrowing of the polling numbers in almost all races.
Tomorrow's Michigan vote will be a significant factor in the race, especially if McCain "steals" victory away from Romney. A Romney loss in Michigan could sound a death knell for his campaign which failed in Iowa and New Hampshire despite substantial effort and expense in those states.
Part of the challenge with national polls is that they may be subject to a lot of simple "name recognition" bias - ie people are saying their favorite candidate is simply the one they've heard of. As the TV ads hit and the race heats up in the dozens of states with primaries coming up in a matter of weeks, we are likely to see a narrowing of the polling numbers in almost all races.
Tomorrow's Michigan vote will be a significant factor in the race, especially if McCain "steals" victory away from Romney. A Romney loss in Michigan could sound a death knell for his campaign which failed in Iowa and New Hampshire despite substantial effort and expense in those states.
Race and the Democratic Primary
The pundit ranting and media attention focusing on "race issues" in the Democratic primary seems extremely overhyped to me - almost a network fabrication to pique viewer interest and heat up a race where all three Democrats have similar platforms, voting records, and sensibilities.
Of course there are tiny little "swift boat" attacks every day by people who are associated with the campaigns in various ways, but on balance it is ridiculous to see this as a contentious campaign - the dialog for the most part has been very respectful and civil, reflecting the fact that the players are much more ideologically compatible than they are incompatible.
Tomorrow's Democratic debate should provide an excellent read on the state of the campaigns in terms of negativity and future direction. I expect a fiesty but respectful Obama and Clinton, with Edwards probably doing some Hilary bashing as he's clearly lining himself up with the "new kids on the block" rather than the Clinton old school.
Kerry's endorsement of Obama was intriguing given that he ran with John Edwards. Despite almost becoming president himself, Kerry no longer has much national political clout - perhaps another reflection on our "all or nothing" American political mentality.
Of course there are tiny little "swift boat" attacks every day by people who are associated with the campaigns in various ways, but on balance it is ridiculous to see this as a contentious campaign - the dialog for the most part has been very respectful and civil, reflecting the fact that the players are much more ideologically compatible than they are incompatible.
Tomorrow's Democratic debate should provide an excellent read on the state of the campaigns in terms of negativity and future direction. I expect a fiesty but respectful Obama and Clinton, with Edwards probably doing some Hilary bashing as he's clearly lining himself up with the "new kids on the block" rather than the Clinton old school.
Kerry's endorsement of Obama was intriguing given that he ran with John Edwards. Despite almost becoming president himself, Kerry no longer has much national political clout - perhaps another reflection on our "all or nothing" American political mentality.
It's a horserace!
As the primaries go to different players with no clear winners in sight the 2008 campaign is shaping up to be a close race in both parties as well as the general election.
Clinton's surprise win in New Hampshire raised more questions about polling validity as almost all polls showed Obama winning handily. McCain's strong showing in New Hampshire has revitalized his sagging campaign, suddenly focusing a lot of attention on Romney's
vulnerabilities.
Tomorrow's Michigan race could be a critical one for the Romney campaign. He's from Michigan where his father was a popular Governor. If McCain beats Romney in Michigan look for some major strategy changes by the Romney campaign, and perhaps even a drop out though I think that is very unlikely. Romney's personal wealth gives him a powerful financial backing that is lacking in the McCain, Giuliani, or Huckabee camps.
For the Dems, look for some lively debate tomorrow night as Edwards, Clinton, and Obama duke it out in Las Vegas in the first debate with only those three frontrunners.
Clinton's surprise win in New Hampshire raised more questions about polling validity as almost all polls showed Obama winning handily. McCain's strong showing in New Hampshire has revitalized his sagging campaign, suddenly focusing a lot of attention on Romney's
vulnerabilities.
Tomorrow's Michigan race could be a critical one for the Romney campaign. He's from Michigan where his father was a popular Governor. If McCain beats Romney in Michigan look for some major strategy changes by the Romney campaign, and perhaps even a drop out though I think that is very unlikely. Romney's personal wealth gives him a powerful financial backing that is lacking in the McCain, Giuliani, or Huckabee camps.
For the Dems, look for some lively debate tomorrow night as Edwards, Clinton, and Obama duke it out in Las Vegas in the first debate with only those three frontrunners.
Tuesday, January 08, 2008
New Hampshire Primary - will it change the game?
Light posting here because I'm at the consumer electronics show in Las Vegas right now, and posting a lot about that at JoeDuck.com.
However it's looking like Obama will win NH and pretty much inherit the Clinton "Frontrunner" mantle, providing a powerful buzz boost for the campaign as it enters the races that have many more delegates at stake. If Edwards takes second it'll be even a more serious blow to the Clinton Campaign. Look for Clinton to hire a new campaign manager...tomorrow. I predict Carville will come on board, and I predict he will turn things around. Is Edwards a contender? Of course - though he seems to face the challenges of being seen as something of a Washington "insider" like Clinton and lacks the superb speaking style and "shiny new" appeal of Obama.
On the Republican side McCain looks like the clear winner, with Romney again the bridesmaid where he hoped to be the bride. It appears many are souring on Romney, appearing to fear his polished style and perhaps his Mormon religious heritage. Could "Big Love" have sunk Romney before he even had a shot? It's fair to say the Republican field is even more open than the Democrats with McCain, Romney, Giuliani, and Huckabee all real contenders for the prize.
However it's looking like Obama will win NH and pretty much inherit the Clinton "Frontrunner" mantle, providing a powerful buzz boost for the campaign as it enters the races that have many more delegates at stake. If Edwards takes second it'll be even a more serious blow to the Clinton Campaign. Look for Clinton to hire a new campaign manager...tomorrow. I predict Carville will come on board, and I predict he will turn things around. Is Edwards a contender? Of course - though he seems to face the challenges of being seen as something of a Washington "insider" like Clinton and lacks the superb speaking style and "shiny new" appeal of Obama.
On the Republican side McCain looks like the clear winner, with Romney again the bridesmaid where he hoped to be the bride. It appears many are souring on Romney, appearing to fear his polished style and perhaps his Mormon religious heritage. Could "Big Love" have sunk Romney before he even had a shot? It's fair to say the Republican field is even more open than the Democrats with McCain, Romney, Giuliani, and Huckabee all real contenders for the prize.
Friday, January 04, 2008
Biden, Dodd out
Joe Biden and Chris Dodd have dropped out after poor Iowa showings. Meanwhile Huckabee and Obama are the media toasts of the town, getting more buzz than even big advertising money can buy.
The New Hampshire results won't necessarily reflect the national opinion but unlike Iowa they'll include a lot more groups. If Obama and Huckabee do well in New Hamphire - which probably means second or strong third, they may come out as presumptive frontrunners although the race is likely to tighten after New Hampshire since it is unlikely to be nearly as friendly to Huckabee as Iowa's small and dedicated Christian lobby turned the tide there. Even for Obama it'll be tough to pull out a New Hampshire win.
But ultimately the race will be decided in February on super mega primary day when more than half of all the delegates will be awarded in the huge number of major races around the country - from New York to California. Any predictions before that time are pretty speculative, though we plan to make them anyway.
The New Hampshire results won't necessarily reflect the national opinion but unlike Iowa they'll include a lot more groups. If Obama and Huckabee do well in New Hamphire - which probably means second or strong third, they may come out as presumptive frontrunners although the race is likely to tighten after New Hampshire since it is unlikely to be nearly as friendly to Huckabee as Iowa's small and dedicated Christian lobby turned the tide there. Even for Obama it'll be tough to pull out a New Hampshire win.
But ultimately the race will be decided in February on super mega primary day when more than half of all the delegates will be awarded in the huge number of major races around the country - from New York to California. Any predictions before that time are pretty speculative, though we plan to make them anyway.
Thursday, January 03, 2008
Next Presidential Battleground: New Hampshire
It's not yet clear how the Iowa results will affect the New Hampshire Primary but it's certain to have some effect. There's a tendency for people to jump on and off political bandwagons, so a good guess going in to New Hampshire is that Huckabee and Obama will improve their current showings, probably at the expense of Clinton and Romney.
It's also not clear how this will affect the national polls, which still show Clinton with a sizable lead and show Giuliani - not even a player in Iowa or New Hampshire - with the national Republican lead.
We were wrong about Iowa, so we won't be predicting anything for at least...24 hours!
It's also not clear how this will affect the national polls, which still show Clinton with a sizable lead and show Giuliani - not even a player in Iowa or New Hampshire - with the national Republican lead.
We were wrong about Iowa, so we won't be predicting anything for at least...24 hours!
Obama holding Iowa lead, CNN projects Obama Victory
CNN Projects Obama as winner in Iowa
With about 70% of the democratic precincts in Barack Obama appears the likely Democratic winner with 35% of the vote, with Edwards and Clinton tied at 32%.
A defeat for Clinton in Iowa will hurt her campaign and energize Obamas, though the quirky Iowa caucus process can quickly fade from memory and it is notable that few of the past Presidents actually won this state. Still, media attention is white hot this year and the Huckabee and Obama wins are likely to fuel a lot more attention and a lot more donation money.
With about 70% of the democratic precincts in Barack Obama appears the likely Democratic winner with 35% of the vote, with Edwards and Clinton tied at 32%.
A defeat for Clinton in Iowa will hurt her campaign and energize Obamas, though the quirky Iowa caucus process can quickly fade from memory and it is notable that few of the past Presidents actually won this state. Still, media attention is white hot this year and the Huckabee and Obama wins are likely to fuel a lot more attention and a lot more donation money.
Huckabee Wins Iowa
CNN projects Huckabee as Iowa Winner.
15% precincts have reported for Republicans. Huckabee appears to be showing a whopping 40% to Romney 20% from those precincts, though info is still coming in...
15% precincts have reported for Republicans. Huckabee appears to be showing a whopping 40% to Romney 20% from those precincts, though info is still coming in...
CNN Iowa entrance Polls: Tight Obama v Clinton and Romney v Huckabee. Edwards down
CNN Iowa entrance Polls: Tight Obama v Clinton and Romney v Huckabee. Edwards down.
CNN's got some great coverage tonight from *inside* five Iowa Democratic Caucus locations. there are some 3500 locations so it won't be very helpful in terms of prediction, but it's a great insight into the Iowa process, which is at one level very democratic and open yet at another level it is not very participatory (only a small fraction of the electorate participates) and also to my mind is very biased in favor of more assertive folks who are willing to stand up for their opinions. This last feature is very questionable, as it effectively may disenfranchise some " shy" folks, which is not democratic. The Republican system, a simple straw poll, is arguably more "fair" to all involved.
CNN's got some great coverage tonight from *inside* five Iowa Democratic Caucus locations. there are some 3500 locations so it won't be very helpful in terms of prediction, but it's a great insight into the Iowa process, which is at one level very democratic and open yet at another level it is not very participatory (only a small fraction of the electorate participates) and also to my mind is very biased in favor of more assertive folks who are willing to stand up for their opinions. This last feature is very questionable, as it effectively may disenfranchise some " shy" folks, which is not democratic. The Republican system, a simple straw poll, is arguably more "fair" to all involved.
Huckabee's Surprise?
The Huckabee campaign is now predicting a 5%+ victory tonight in the Iowa Caucuses, as reported by Fox News' Shepard Smith a few moments ago. Fox suggests that the Huckabee Campaign has an exceptional rural religious get out the vote campaign that has been underreported so far during the campaign (though polls should have captured this data).
A close election on both Republican and Democratic sides probably will not shift the balances of power, but a runaway victory or loss by any candidate could do a lot to change the national polls.
This just in: Obama campaign is suggesting there are early indications of record, large turnouts. Most think this will hurt John Edwards and help Clinton and Obama with a *very* large turnout helping Obama the most.
A close election on both Republican and Democratic sides probably will not shift the balances of power, but a runaway victory or loss by any candidate could do a lot to change the national polls.
This just in: Obama campaign is suggesting there are early indications of record, large turnouts. Most think this will hurt John Edwards and help Clinton and Obama with a *very* large turnout helping Obama the most.
Iowa Caucuses are Coming!
Tonight some 150.000 - 200,000 Iowans will gather at locations all across their state to choose the Democratic and Republican candidates as Iowa's recommendations for the national conventions. As the "jumping off point" for the Presidential Race Iowa's importance to the media is extraordinary - and many would say irrationally overblown by the media.
Some conventional wisdom holds that there are "three tickets out" of Iowa and this year probably won't be the exception to that on the Democratic side, where it's likely that Obama, Edwards, and Clinton will come out with enough support to make the next race - New Hampshire - the media's next darling.
Republican results will be complicated by the fact that Giuliani and McCain, both strong nationally, have made few attempts to do well in Iowa. I'd suggest that after Iowa we'll see the Republican field quickly narrow to Huckabee, Romney, McCain, and Giuliani with the first two as rising stars and the second two as falling stars. I still predict Romney will win the Republican nomination.
Based on the most recent polling averages I'm starting to doubt my own predictions of Romney and Clinton, but it's very hard to predict Caucus results based on polls because people must make a substantial committment to a caucus, especially on the Democratic side where you must also stand up and sometimes speak for your candidate.
Some conventional wisdom holds that there are "three tickets out" of Iowa and this year probably won't be the exception to that on the Democratic side, where it's likely that Obama, Edwards, and Clinton will come out with enough support to make the next race - New Hampshire - the media's next darling.
Republican results will be complicated by the fact that Giuliani and McCain, both strong nationally, have made few attempts to do well in Iowa. I'd suggest that after Iowa we'll see the Republican field quickly narrow to Huckabee, Romney, McCain, and Giuliani with the first two as rising stars and the second two as falling stars. I still predict Romney will win the Republican nomination.
Based on the most recent polling averages I'm starting to doubt my own predictions of Romney and Clinton, but it's very hard to predict Caucus results based on polls because people must make a substantial committment to a caucus, especially on the Democratic side where you must also stand up and sometimes speak for your candidate.
Wednesday, January 02, 2008
Iowa Republicans: Huckabee on Tonight Show, Romney Rolling along
As we move into the final hours before the Iowa Caucuses the Republican interest is focusing in on Romney and Huckabee. The latest poll from the Desmoines newspaper shows Huckabee with a solid lead, though averaging several recent polls gives puts Romney and Huckabee in a virtual dead heat with Huckabee ahead by a fraction of a percent.
The Republican field is complicated by the fact that national frontrunner Giuliani skipped Iowa completely and John McCain has not compaigned very heard in Iowa - partly because his honest stand against foolish ethanol subsidies made it very hard for him to do much in Iowa. If Huckabee or Romney's campaigns show huge boosts after Iowa this "no Iowa" strategy may be seen as a mistake, but on balance I think this was a good choice for McCain and Giuliani. What is likely is that we'll see the Republican field narrow to three - maybe four candidates after New Hampshire next week. Those are likely to be Huckabee, Romney, McCain, Giuliani.
Huckabee's huge surge over the past few months is the most significant developement in the race. It appears to be a reflection of the desire on the part of many Christian conservative Republicans to have a candidate that strongly supports a pro-Christian, anti-abortion stand that is not seen in the other leading candidates. Money will come into play heavily for Huckabee as he moves to the larger states where campaigns cannot be run as personally as in Iowa, though a win in Iowa woult lead to a significant increase in donations.
The Republican field is complicated by the fact that national frontrunner Giuliani skipped Iowa completely and John McCain has not compaigned very heard in Iowa - partly because his honest stand against foolish ethanol subsidies made it very hard for him to do much in Iowa. If Huckabee or Romney's campaigns show huge boosts after Iowa this "no Iowa" strategy may be seen as a mistake, but on balance I think this was a good choice for McCain and Giuliani. What is likely is that we'll see the Republican field narrow to three - maybe four candidates after New Hampshire next week. Those are likely to be Huckabee, Romney, McCain, Giuliani.
Huckabee's huge surge over the past few months is the most significant developement in the race. It appears to be a reflection of the desire on the part of many Christian conservative Republicans to have a candidate that strongly supports a pro-Christian, anti-abortion stand that is not seen in the other leading candidates. Money will come into play heavily for Huckabee as he moves to the larger states where campaigns cannot be run as personally as in Iowa, though a win in Iowa woult lead to a significant increase in donations.
Tuesday, January 01, 2008
Obama and Huckabee lead in large DesMoines Register Poll
The key newspaper in the upcoming Iowa race is the DesMoines Register. On CSPAN today Pollster J. Anne Selzer is discussing their latest poll, the last major one before the caucuses:
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=iowapoll07
Frustratingly in terms of predicting outcomes, their result is dramatically different from Zogby for the Democrats. Register shows Obama leading in a big way, Zogby shows Clinton with the lead. RealClearPolitics averaging process shows a very narrow Clinton lead.
On the Republican side they agree with Zogby and show a Huckabee lead. RealClearPolitics averages now show Huckabee with a sliver of a lead: 0.4% over Romney.
The Clinton and Edwards campaigns suggested the Register's methodology was flawed, especially in terms of projected caucus participation. Selzer thinks a lot of independents will be involved - many more than historically. She also notes that they were able to contact some potential voters by cell phone, most notable college students who will be back in time for caucus but are not in Iowa now - which she said was a flaw in some other polls.
So, how does this affect our Predictions? No change. Romney and Clinton will win Iowa.
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=iowapoll07
Frustratingly in terms of predicting outcomes, their result is dramatically different from Zogby for the Democrats. Register shows Obama leading in a big way, Zogby shows Clinton with the lead. RealClearPolitics averaging process shows a very narrow Clinton lead.
On the Republican side they agree with Zogby and show a Huckabee lead. RealClearPolitics averages now show Huckabee with a sliver of a lead: 0.4% over Romney.
The Clinton and Edwards campaigns suggested the Register's methodology was flawed, especially in terms of projected caucus participation. Selzer thinks a lot of independents will be involved - many more than historically. She also notes that they were able to contact some potential voters by cell phone, most notable college students who will be back in time for caucus but are not in Iowa now - which she said was a flaw in some other polls.
So, how does this affect our Predictions? No change. Romney and Clinton will win Iowa.
Polls?!
As Mark noted below Huckabee is showing as the Iowa leader in the Zogby tracking poll as well as the averaged ClearPolitics polling here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/iowa-primary.html
The MSNBC poll they discussed today showing Romney in the lead is listed at ClearPolitics as Mason Dixon, but as I've noted before poll averaging is probably the best measure assuming all the polls in the average are unbiased. Averaging can fail miserably if you include polling that is not objective - e.g. polls by groups with an agenda or axe to grind. I have no reason to believe any of these fall into that category.
Huckabee's press conference today was the talk of the media at MSNBC who suggested he was trying to be negative without running the negative ad he'd planned. It'll be interesting to see whether Romney or Huckabee can master the art of being very negative *without acting like you are being negative*. Both are working hard at that during these last few days.
Some polls are showing Obama over Clinton where MSNBC had almost a dead heat. It'll be fun to try to untangle some of this data over the next few days, though our predictions remain as Clinton and Romney with Iowa Victories.
The MSNBC poll they discussed today showing Romney in the lead is listed at ClearPolitics as Mason Dixon, but as I've noted before poll averaging is probably the best measure assuming all the polls in the average are unbiased. Averaging can fail miserably if you include polling that is not objective - e.g. polls by groups with an agenda or axe to grind. I have no reason to believe any of these fall into that category.
Huckabee's press conference today was the talk of the media at MSNBC who suggested he was trying to be negative without running the negative ad he'd planned. It'll be interesting to see whether Romney or Huckabee can master the art of being very negative *without acting like you are being negative*. Both are working hard at that during these last few days.
Some polls are showing Obama over Clinton where MSNBC had almost a dead heat. It'll be fun to try to untangle some of this data over the next few days, though our predictions remain as Clinton and Romney with Iowa Victories.
Monday, December 31, 2007
Michael Bloomberg to enter the Presidential race ! ?
New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg's staff has been preparing for a possible presidential run on a third party ticket. This could be a very significant development given the ambivalence towards the frontrunners in both parties. Bloomberg is a Democrat but as a billionaire businessman would also have appeal to many Republicans, so his effect on the ultimate outcome is hard to predict and, unlike Ross Perot, Bloomberg arguably has a higher quotient of personal+professional appeal than Clinton, Obama, Giuliani, or Romney.
President Picker is waiting for more information on the possible Bloomberg candidacy, but at the very least this is a potentially destabilizing development for both parties. If more than two fo the current frontrunners appear to falter without a surge by the competition, look for Bloomberg to jump in to the Presidential race as a third party candidate.
Hey, I bet Donny Deutsch knows if Bloomberg will run and I'm hoping to meet him at CES Las Vegas. Deutsch's masterful advertising expertise helped bring Bill Clinton to power, and clearly marketing is a key skill for a presidential team so it wouldn't surprise me if Donny's already been contacted by the Bloomberg staff for ideas and thoughts on the possibility of a Bloomberg run.
President Picker is waiting for more information on the possible Bloomberg candidacy, but at the very least this is a potentially destabilizing development for both parties. If more than two fo the current frontrunners appear to falter without a surge by the competition, look for Bloomberg to jump in to the Presidential race as a third party candidate.
Hey, I bet Donny Deutsch knows if Bloomberg will run and I'm hoping to meet him at CES Las Vegas. Deutsch's masterful advertising expertise helped bring Bill Clinton to power, and clearly marketing is a key skill for a presidential team so it wouldn't surprise me if Donny's already been contacted by the Bloomberg staff for ideas and thoughts on the possibility of a Bloomberg run.
Romney leads Republicans in latest Iowa poll
Mitt Romney now shows as the likely winner in Iowa, four points up on Huckabee according to the latest MSNBC McClatchy poll some 4 days before the caucuses. For Republicans the polls are more relevant becuase the caucus process does not involve "speaking up" for your candidate or switching support as does the Democratic caucus procedure which is more likely to shake things up.
Iowa Democrats effectively tied
Well, despite what I noted earlier about the mistaken impressions about "statistical ties" the latest MSNBC poll shows Edwards 24%, Clinton 23%, and Obama 22%. This result is *so close* that even though if this was your only source you'd want to bet on Edwards, it now appears that Iowa Democrats are pretty much tied, especially given the fact that averaging of the polls - probably a more effective measure than any single poll - now will give Edwards a boost from this top showing.
President Picker still thinks Clinton will win due to the football game advantage and Bill Clinton master strategics that we think are not properly reflected in the polls, though I have not researched the polling questions. In fact if the polls *do* reflect some apathy all bets could be off in a very close race where you may see higher-than-anticipated participation and guys skipping the game to go support their candidate.
In fact one wonders if Richardson and Biden may be negotiating behind the scenes right now for a VP slot. They will each have caucus people who will need to "switch candidates" due to the 15% caucus support threshold. Thus if they asked their supporters at the last minute to move to any of the top three it could be enough to swing the result, and the stakes in Iowa are high enough for Obama, Clinton, and Edwards that any of them might agree.
President Picker still thinks Clinton will win due to the football game advantage and Bill Clinton master strategics that we think are not properly reflected in the polls, though I have not researched the polling questions. In fact if the polls *do* reflect some apathy all bets could be off in a very close race where you may see higher-than-anticipated participation and guys skipping the game to go support their candidate.
In fact one wonders if Richardson and Biden may be negotiating behind the scenes right now for a VP slot. They will each have caucus people who will need to "switch candidates" due to the 15% caucus support threshold. Thus if they asked their supporters at the last minute to move to any of the top three it could be enough to swing the result, and the stakes in Iowa are high enough for Obama, Clinton, and Edwards that any of them might agree.
Desmoines, Iowa - Presidential tourism in action
The Desmoines Register, which I think is Iowa's main newspaper, has a neat piece showcasing tourism in Desmoines where many of the campaigns have a rather large prescence, and the election mania is reaching it's peak as the presidential caucuses loom.
Sunday, December 30, 2007
Iowa Republican Race: Romney vs Huckabee
Recent surges for Mike Huckabee make him a real contender in Iowa, and president picker now thinks Huckabee could even win Iowa although Romney will certainly be close. We continue to predict a Romney win in Iowa.
Recent polls show Romney and Huckabee neck and neck, each with about 30% in Iowa. McCain's weak Iowa showing reflects the problems with a system that puts so much emphasis on Iowa, where (stupid and foolish) heavy subsidies for Ethanol are popular. McCain, much to his credit, has opposed these subsidies and lost a lot of votes for doing that. McCain is now a frontrunner in New Hampshire - a state he won against GW Bush in the 2000 race.
Unlike the democratic caucus process Iowa's Republican race uses a ballot process, thus the polls are more relevant because people will not have to "stand up and argue" for their candidate as they do in the Democratic caucuses.
President Picker predicts that Huckabee's popularity will soon fade with a poor New Hampshire showing and increasingly public scrutiny.
President Picker Predictions: Look for a small Romney victory in Iowa and a McCain win in New Hampshire, Giuliani continues to fade as will Huckabee. McCain cash problems will hurt him in South Carolina. Thompson drops out after South Carolina or even New Hampshire.
Recent polls show Romney and Huckabee neck and neck, each with about 30% in Iowa. McCain's weak Iowa showing reflects the problems with a system that puts so much emphasis on Iowa, where (stupid and foolish) heavy subsidies for Ethanol are popular. McCain, much to his credit, has opposed these subsidies and lost a lot of votes for doing that. McCain is now a frontrunner in New Hampshire - a state he won against GW Bush in the 2000 race.
Unlike the democratic caucus process Iowa's Republican race uses a ballot process, thus the polls are more relevant because people will not have to "stand up and argue" for their candidate as they do in the Democratic caucuses.
President Picker predicts that Huckabee's popularity will soon fade with a poor New Hampshire showing and increasingly public scrutiny.
President Picker Predictions: Look for a small Romney victory in Iowa and a McCain win in New Hampshire, Giuliani continues to fade as will Huckabee. McCain cash problems will hurt him in South Carolina. Thompson drops out after South Carolina or even New Hampshire.
Iowa Democrats - Clinton, Obama, Edwards almost a dead heat?
Real Clear Politics has a great examination of recent Iowa polling, and averages the latest information to get these numbers:
Clinton 28.4
Obama 26.4
Edwards 25.8
Averaging has some challenges but probably paints a better picture than any individual polling effort. By this measure the race is pretty much a dead heat (though I HATE ther terms "statistical dead heat" because it misleads people into thinking there is no difference between different numbers. There is a difference. When two numbers are within the polls margin of error it still means the top person is "more likely" to win, but suggests far more uncertainty than if the numbers are outside of the margin of error.
For example Richardson with under 10% has virtually no chance of an Iowa top 3 placement, but any of the top 3 could win this race.
However, I continue to believe Clinton will win due to superior organization and strategy and the football game which will affect men more than women and thus Clinton's popularity among Iowa women will be enhanced, but the game is not likely to be fully reflected in polls.
Prediction: Clinton Wins Iowa and also New Hampshire.
Clinton 28.4
Obama 26.4
Edwards 25.8
Averaging has some challenges but probably paints a better picture than any individual polling effort. By this measure the race is pretty much a dead heat (though I HATE ther terms "statistical dead heat" because it misleads people into thinking there is no difference between different numbers. There is a difference. When two numbers are within the polls margin of error it still means the top person is "more likely" to win, but suggests far more uncertainty than if the numbers are outside of the margin of error.
For example Richardson with under 10% has virtually no chance of an Iowa top 3 placement, but any of the top 3 could win this race.
However, I continue to believe Clinton will win due to superior organization and strategy and the football game which will affect men more than women and thus Clinton's popularity among Iowa women will be enhanced, but the game is not likely to be fully reflected in polls.
Prediction: Clinton Wins Iowa and also New Hampshire.
Friday, December 28, 2007
Into the Iowa Home Stretch
The Iowa Caucuses are only about a week away, and it is by no means clear who will win Iowa, let alone how that will affect the longer term prospects of the winners and losers.
On the Republican side of the race McCain is showing signs of life in Iowa and New Hampshire, and in National polls. If he topples the "front runners" Romney and Giuliani it'll breath some life into a campaign that had been slowed considerably by challenges in organization and funding.
Still, President Picker predicts a Romney win in Iowa by a modest percentage and then a stronger win in New Hampshire, consolidating Romney as the Republican Front Runner and seeing more drop outs - probably Thompson first after predicted bad showings in the first two states.
Democrats are also hard to call, but we think Obama's latest surge has been mostly a product of big spending and Oprah appearances and his hard core support may fade when push comes to shove comes to the complex caucus process. In fact I think it's possible we'll see Obama support higher in number than Clinton's but still a caucus loss due to inferior organization and strategy or even some last minute bombshells that will weaken Obama support.
Clinton has one of the great political masterminds of the 20th century on her team, and it's unlikely the Clinton campaign will botch their broad based Iowa support and organization. Likewise Edwards has been through this before with good results, so his organization may outperform his actual support.
Of course even the weather can play a huge role in Iowa, as will the football game which gives Clinton a nice edge demographically as she has more female voters and they are less likely to stay home and watch the game. Stormy? Clinton wins handily due to organization and football. Perfect Weather? Obama has a shot. Edwards....second.
On the Republican side of the race McCain is showing signs of life in Iowa and New Hampshire, and in National polls. If he topples the "front runners" Romney and Giuliani it'll breath some life into a campaign that had been slowed considerably by challenges in organization and funding.
Still, President Picker predicts a Romney win in Iowa by a modest percentage and then a stronger win in New Hampshire, consolidating Romney as the Republican Front Runner and seeing more drop outs - probably Thompson first after predicted bad showings in the first two states.
Democrats are also hard to call, but we think Obama's latest surge has been mostly a product of big spending and Oprah appearances and his hard core support may fade when push comes to shove comes to the complex caucus process. In fact I think it's possible we'll see Obama support higher in number than Clinton's but still a caucus loss due to inferior organization and strategy or even some last minute bombshells that will weaken Obama support.
Clinton has one of the great political masterminds of the 20th century on her team, and it's unlikely the Clinton campaign will botch their broad based Iowa support and organization. Likewise Edwards has been through this before with good results, so his organization may outperform his actual support.
Of course even the weather can play a huge role in Iowa, as will the football game which gives Clinton a nice edge demographically as she has more female voters and they are less likely to stay home and watch the game. Stormy? Clinton wins handily due to organization and football. Perfect Weather? Obama has a shot. Edwards....second.
In Memoriam: Benazir Bhutto
Benazir Bhutto, Pakistani moderate and champion of democracy, is yet another reminder of the instability in so many parts of our challenged world. Bhutto’s assassination, and the ongoing attacks on General Musharaff, bring that possibility closer as Pakistan’s hopes for a quality democracy drift again into the shadows.
India and Pakistan have been very antagonistic towards each other since Pakistan’s fiery birth soon after Indian independence from Britain. Disputes over the Kashmir region, claimed by both countries, flare up regularly.
Instability favors the extremists and those who support them, and takes us away from the democracy that most people favor as the best way to bring justice and prosperity to all.
Bhutto stood for democracy, and died for democracy. Even in our much safer society our prominent elected officials and candidates risk their lives in the pursuit of the democratic dream. We should respect them all for taking this risk in the name of our freedoms.
Sunday, December 23, 2007
New Hampshire Concord Monitor Newspaper: Romney need not apply for President.
The Concord Monitor , in a rambling, scathing editorial written by "monitor staff", suggests that Mitt Romney is basically a "fake" and should not be President. The ranting critique of Romney seemed odd to me coming as it does from a liberal paper that one would think would be at least mildly supportive of Romney's history of mild Republicanism rather than the more right wing forms it claims (correctly) he's catering to as the campaign heats up. Almost bizarre is the Monitor's description of what they see as a litany of Romney defeciencies:
... athletic build, ramrod posture, Reaganesque hair, a charismatic speaking style and a crisp dark suit. You'd add a beautiful wife and family, a wildly successful business career and just enough executive government experience. You'd pour in some old GOP bromides - spending cuts and lower taxes ...
So let me get this straight Monitor staff: Republicans need a scrawny bald guy with bad posture in an ill-fitting light colored suit. He should speak poorly, have an ugly wife, and ugly children. He should have failed in business and have huge amounts of government experience, and favor more spending and higher taxes.
Huh?
Frankly, I think the editorial is more conspicuous than Romney's newfound conservatism, it reads more like a paper trying to derail the person who is arguably most likely to win the general election than as a real statement of the paper's sensibilities. Failing to disclose their likely preference for the Democratic nominee smells wrong to me given how critical they seem to be of Romney's "past liberalism"
C'mon Concord Monitor - Romney's conservative focus is like Hilary's hawkish sensibilities or Edwards populist ones. These are simply good campaign strategy - play your weaknesses as strengths and draw in people near the middle. Most of these candidates (Obama as possible exception), have legislative records we can examine and there is little reason they will diverge significantly from past voting.
Romney may or may not be suited for the job of president, but the Monitor's weak and self-serving editorial is hardly a guide to his qualifications or lack of them.
... athletic build, ramrod posture, Reaganesque hair, a charismatic speaking style and a crisp dark suit. You'd add a beautiful wife and family, a wildly successful business career and just enough executive government experience. You'd pour in some old GOP bromides - spending cuts and lower taxes ...
So let me get this straight Monitor staff: Republicans need a scrawny bald guy with bad posture in an ill-fitting light colored suit. He should speak poorly, have an ugly wife, and ugly children. He should have failed in business and have huge amounts of government experience, and favor more spending and higher taxes.
Huh?
Frankly, I think the editorial is more conspicuous than Romney's newfound conservatism, it reads more like a paper trying to derail the person who is arguably most likely to win the general election than as a real statement of the paper's sensibilities. Failing to disclose their likely preference for the Democratic nominee smells wrong to me given how critical they seem to be of Romney's "past liberalism"
C'mon Concord Monitor - Romney's conservative focus is like Hilary's hawkish sensibilities or Edwards populist ones. These are simply good campaign strategy - play your weaknesses as strengths and draw in people near the middle. Most of these candidates (Obama as possible exception), have legislative records we can examine and there is little reason they will diverge significantly from past voting.
Romney may or may not be suited for the job of president, but the Monitor's weak and self-serving editorial is hardly a guide to his qualifications or lack of them.
Thursday, December 20, 2007
Giuliani released from MO hospital and is OK, Tancredo drops out of race.
Rudy Giuliani was hospitalized yesterday with flu-like symptoms. He's been released from the Missouri hospital and CNN is reporting he has a "clean bill of health", but they don't seem to have much information.
Although there is no reason to believe Giuliani's problems have anything to do with his past cancer, it's clear that health issues could impact this election more than most. John Edwards wife had cancer as did Giuliani, and it is reasonable to wonder what effect a health flare-up would have on these campaigns.
Although there is no reason to believe Giuliani's problems have anything to do with his past cancer, it's clear that health issues could impact this election more than most. John Edwards wife had cancer as did Giuliani, and it is reasonable to wonder what effect a health flare-up would have on these campaigns.
Tancredo leaves Republican field
Tom Tancredo, dead last in the polls, will drop out of the race today. It's not official yet but will happen during the press conference he'll hold before Thursday afternoon.
Tancredo's strong anti-illegal immigration message did not appear to resonate with voters.
Meanwhile, Republicans continue to vigorously court New Hampshire voters. Iowa is more a Democratic battleground although both states could provide a huge boost to winners in terms of support as well as the mother's milk of politics - cash.
Tancredo's strong anti-illegal immigration message did not appear to resonate with voters.
Meanwhile, Republicans continue to vigorously court New Hampshire voters. Iowa is more a Democratic battleground although both states could provide a huge boost to winners in terms of support as well as the mother's milk of politics - cash.
Donny Deutsch on Christmas Ads
Advertising expert Donny Deutsch was hard on most of the Christmas campaign advertising, suggesting much of it is a waste of time or not really "on message" for the candidates.
I agreed with some of Deutsch's analyses but disagreed with his criticism of the Obama ad, which I'd argue is simply brilliant. Giuliani ridiculously offers off camera people fruitcakes and sits beside a fake santa. Edwards simply offers a short campaign pitch. Clinton is wrapping presents like "National Pre-K" and "Health Care". Not terrible, but smells insincere which is a key Clinton challenge.
The two "stand out" ads are that of Huckabee, which somewhat spookily features a shelf filmed to look like a cross behind the candidate - almost as if they are sending a secret signal to the minions waiting in the wings for a messianic candidate. Deutsch stopped just short of calling this ad out as a dangerous sign of trends in American politics, but indicated he was alarmed by this type of symbolism.
The great ad is Obama's. His picture perfect family sits beside a tree as Michelle wishes everybody well. Obama then suggests it's time to come together rather than apart, and his family almost frames this concept in a greeting card way with the daughters wishing us all happy holidays. Schmalzy? Maybe, but this ad is a brilliant example of reaching the people you want in the way they want to be reached. Obama needs women to vote for him, not Hilary. This is a huge challenge that his campaign is meeting masterfully with Oprah and ads like this.
I agreed with some of Deutsch's analyses but disagreed with his criticism of the Obama ad, which I'd argue is simply brilliant. Giuliani ridiculously offers off camera people fruitcakes and sits beside a fake santa. Edwards simply offers a short campaign pitch. Clinton is wrapping presents like "National Pre-K" and "Health Care". Not terrible, but smells insincere which is a key Clinton challenge.
The two "stand out" ads are that of Huckabee, which somewhat spookily features a shelf filmed to look like a cross behind the candidate - almost as if they are sending a secret signal to the minions waiting in the wings for a messianic candidate. Deutsch stopped just short of calling this ad out as a dangerous sign of trends in American politics, but indicated he was alarmed by this type of symbolism.
The great ad is Obama's. His picture perfect family sits beside a tree as Michelle wishes everybody well. Obama then suggests it's time to come together rather than apart, and his family almost frames this concept in a greeting card way with the daughters wishing us all happy holidays. Schmalzy? Maybe, but this ad is a brilliant example of reaching the people you want in the way they want to be reached. Obama needs women to vote for him, not Hilary. This is a huge challenge that his campaign is meeting masterfully with Oprah and ads like this.
Republican New Hampshire - Romney v McCain
Mitt Romney has a substantial lead in New Hampshire according to the NBC Wall Street Journal poll results discussed today on Chris Mathews Hardball. As we predicted some time ago Romney is the Republican to watch and the man to beat, as Giuliani's lead dwindles in the face of closer public scrutiny.
Likewise on the Democrat side Clinton maintains a sizable lead in New Hampshire although Obama now leads in Iowa 33% to 29% for Clinton.
President Picker is skeptical of the Iowa poll results showing an Obama lead. Although he may win, we still predict a Clinton Victory, feeling that support for Obama will prove "softer" than support for Clinton. Iowa Caucusing requires a substantial committment from supporters and it's not at all clear that Obama's new campaign troops will be as enthusiastic on caucus night as they have been attending Obama pep rallies with Oprah.
Likewise on the Democrat side Clinton maintains a sizable lead in New Hampshire although Obama now leads in Iowa 33% to 29% for Clinton.
President Picker is skeptical of the Iowa poll results showing an Obama lead. Although he may win, we still predict a Clinton Victory, feeling that support for Obama will prove "softer" than support for Clinton. Iowa Caucusing requires a substantial committment from supporters and it's not at all clear that Obama's new campaign troops will be as enthusiastic on caucus night as they have been attending Obama pep rallies with Oprah.
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Yahoo Political Dashboard
Webguild reports that the The Yahoo Political Dashboard is up and running, though Reshma notes several caveats in how you'd want to interpret this data.
The Yahoo Dashboard is very nicely done visually, and allows a lot of key comparisons quickly. The money raised column may be the most relevant in terms of the prospects of these candidates as we kick the primary season into gear in early January. Why? Campaigning in small states like Iowa and New Hampshire is not expensive, but in California and New York you need tens of millions to sway those pesky undecided voters who arguably are the key voters who determine the outcome in our market-driven elections system.
The following candidates won't have money problems if they can perform OK in the early primaries: Clinton, Obama, Romney, Giuliani, Edwards. I'd say McCain and Huckabee are at great risk regardless of performance because they'll need cash to continue, and unless they have huge showing early on I predict people will try to "bet on a winner" and donations will continue to flow to the frontrunners. Look for Romney and Edwards to fund their own campaigns heavily if their prospects look good. President Picker still predicts that Romney will win the Republican Nomination and Clinton the Democrat, but we acknowledge the Iowa and New Hampshire races have become closer than we thought they would be. Obama's strategy is almost flawless so far - he's taken a high road on the campaign which has made Clinton look petty and mean - the latter a key attribute her campaign is trying to counter even as it struggles to fine Obama's Achilles heel.
Ironically the Clinton campaign's new advertising is designed to make people feel more "warm and fuzzy" towards Clinton. I see this as a strategic error. Everybody knows she is a tough and seasoned politically and has a hard and intense personality. Suggesting otherwise appears deceptive because it is, and also because media are viewing this approach skeptically - skepticism that rubs off on viewers. These are not attributes the campaign should be diminishing, rather they should be promoting her as a potentially "tough as nails" negotiator and commander in chief. Obama's campaign has recognized correctly that their goal is almost the opposite - make him kind, gentle, and accessible to the indecisive female voters who otherwise would have gone for Clinton on the basis of gender.
The Yahoo Dashboard is very nicely done visually, and allows a lot of key comparisons quickly. The money raised column may be the most relevant in terms of the prospects of these candidates as we kick the primary season into gear in early January. Why? Campaigning in small states like Iowa and New Hampshire is not expensive, but in California and New York you need tens of millions to sway those pesky undecided voters who arguably are the key voters who determine the outcome in our market-driven elections system.
The following candidates won't have money problems if they can perform OK in the early primaries: Clinton, Obama, Romney, Giuliani, Edwards. I'd say McCain and Huckabee are at great risk regardless of performance because they'll need cash to continue, and unless they have huge showing early on I predict people will try to "bet on a winner" and donations will continue to flow to the frontrunners. Look for Romney and Edwards to fund their own campaigns heavily if their prospects look good. President Picker still predicts that Romney will win the Republican Nomination and Clinton the Democrat, but we acknowledge the Iowa and New Hampshire races have become closer than we thought they would be. Obama's strategy is almost flawless so far - he's taken a high road on the campaign which has made Clinton look petty and mean - the latter a key attribute her campaign is trying to counter even as it struggles to fine Obama's Achilles heel.
Ironically the Clinton campaign's new advertising is designed to make people feel more "warm and fuzzy" towards Clinton. I see this as a strategic error. Everybody knows she is a tough and seasoned politically and has a hard and intense personality. Suggesting otherwise appears deceptive because it is, and also because media are viewing this approach skeptically - skepticism that rubs off on viewers. These are not attributes the campaign should be diminishing, rather they should be promoting her as a potentially "tough as nails" negotiator and commander in chief. Obama's campaign has recognized correctly that their goal is almost the opposite - make him kind, gentle, and accessible to the indecisive female voters who otherwise would have gone for Clinton on the basis of gender.
Monday, December 17, 2007
Lieberman endorses McCain
John McCain got a needed campaign boost with a Joe Lieberman endorsement, another from the Boston Globe, and a third from the DeMoines register.
McCain has been lagging in the polls despite his 2000 victory over GW Bush in the New Hampshire primary.
Meanwhile Barack Obama, now the Democratic frontrunner, and Mitt Romney are talking religion and politics more than they'd probably like to. Obama is defending himself against what appear to be Clinton campaign suggestions challenging his Christian roots, while Romney was heavily blasted by NBC's Tim Russert for his long support of questionable Mormon church policies.
Although negative attacks are just political business as usual, I'm disappointed that journalists like Russert and TV news are so quickly picking up and running with these irrelevancies. Religion is relevant to the character debate, and in the case of Huckabee, a minister, it would be good to clarify some allegiances, but I think suggestions that people can't separate religion and state are questionable in the case of all these candidates. Far more relevant are questions about governance and policy. Is it too much to expect more about that?
McCain has been lagging in the polls despite his 2000 victory over GW Bush in the New Hampshire primary.
Meanwhile Barack Obama, now the Democratic frontrunner, and Mitt Romney are talking religion and politics more than they'd probably like to. Obama is defending himself against what appear to be Clinton campaign suggestions challenging his Christian roots, while Romney was heavily blasted by NBC's Tim Russert for his long support of questionable Mormon church policies.
Although negative attacks are just political business as usual, I'm disappointed that journalists like Russert and TV news are so quickly picking up and running with these irrelevancies. Religion is relevant to the character debate, and in the case of Huckabee, a minister, it would be good to clarify some allegiances, but I think suggestions that people can't separate religion and state are questionable in the case of all these candidates. Far more relevant are questions about governance and policy. Is it too much to expect more about that?
Friday, December 14, 2007
Iowa likes Obama
FOX just announced results from today's Iowa poll by an Iowa newspaper showing Obama with aa 9 point lead over Clinton. Although clearly Obama's doing very well in Iowa and appears to be gaining ground in New Hampshire, I remain skeptical that he can overturn the Clinton machine in the broader election, though certainly it's possible.
Obama is spending more in Iowa right now on advertising - I think about 450k weekly vs Clinton's 350k and his teams appear to be working harder. I think a decision was made some time back that Iowa was *the* key Obama priority, and that strategy may lead to an Iowa victory but will leave the campaign challenged in the big states. That said, Obama is on a tear and he could ride this to victory.
On the Republican side Huckabee announced that political mastermind Ed Rollins will take over the Huckabee campaign. Rollins was behind Ronald Reagan's victories and will bring a high level of sophistication to the Huckabee effort. Look for Romney v Huckabee with Giuliani fading and the rest of the pack out within a few months.
Obama is spending more in Iowa right now on advertising - I think about 450k weekly vs Clinton's 350k and his teams appear to be working harder. I think a decision was made some time back that Iowa was *the* key Obama priority, and that strategy may lead to an Iowa victory but will leave the campaign challenged in the big states. That said, Obama is on a tear and he could ride this to victory.
On the Republican side Huckabee announced that political mastermind Ed Rollins will take over the Huckabee campaign. Rollins was behind Ronald Reagan's victories and will bring a high level of sophistication to the Huckabee effort. Look for Romney v Huckabee with Giuliani fading and the rest of the pack out within a few months.
Kindergarten Drug Dealing rock the Democratic primary?
The Clinton campaign's desparate attempts to tarnish Obama with comments he has made about drug use and Kindergarten appear to be backfiring badly in the press and probably among voters, though it remains to be seen if the drug admissions by Obama in his biography may have some negative traction, especially in light of the huge Baseball steroid stories now swirling in the press.
The Clinton adviser that brought up the drug issues has resigned in what Chris Mathews of CNBC claims is a classic act of dishing the dirt, falling on your sword, and getting rehired later.
The Clinton adviser that brought up the drug issues has resigned in what Chris Mathews of CNBC claims is a classic act of dishing the dirt, falling on your sword, and getting rehired later.
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Democratic Debate in Iowa
The Democratic Iowa debate - the last before the caucuses - wrapped up without any major gaffes, though the focus groups seemed to be much more favorable to Obama and Edwards than Hilary Clinton.
Clinton certainly did not stand out the way she had in earlier debates, and as is often the case new "frontrunner" Obama seemed more poised and confident than he had in the earlier encounters.
Compared to the Republicans the democratic crew was downright sympathetic to each other. When the moderator asked a pointed question about Biden and some comments that could have been interpreted as prejudiced, Obama chimed in with an unqualified endorsement of Biden's history as a strongly pro civil rights candidate. Although I don't think it was contrived, I think this played very well with the audience.
Edwards continued to hammer home his populist notion that the rich and powerful are now in control and need to be taken out of control.
Clinton certainly did not stand out the way she had in earlier debates, and as is often the case new "frontrunner" Obama seemed more poised and confident than he had in the earlier encounters.
Compared to the Republicans the democratic crew was downright sympathetic to each other. When the moderator asked a pointed question about Biden and some comments that could have been interpreted as prejudiced, Obama chimed in with an unqualified endorsement of Biden's history as a strongly pro civil rights candidate. Although I don't think it was contrived, I think this played very well with the audience.
Edwards continued to hammer home his populist notion that the rich and powerful are now in control and need to be taken out of control.
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Iowa Republican Debate
The Iowa Republican debate used a really intriguing audience meter that allowed you to guage the audience reaction in real time during the debate. I'm not at all convinced this is a "good" idea, but it sure was interesting.
The large debate fields are nice in terms of bringing in voices that might normally be stifled, but they really diminish the ability of the candidates to rise above sound bytes. That said, polls are fickle and it would be very questionable to deny any candidate with any viability the right to speak.
Alan Keyes sort of clawed his way into a few questions, accusing the moderator of ignoring him which she did appear to do at first. Keyes audience meter pretty much hit the floor when he first spoke but rose later during a passionate plea for more religion in education.
My take overall was that this debate will consolidate Romney and Huckabee as front runners in Iowa. Giuliani is becoming something of a wild card in the race as the national leader who appears to be in decline. His performace was steady but didn't seem to rise to the level of Huckabee, who is probably the most appealing public speaker in the Republican bunch.
Thompson
Giuliani: "Give the death penalty to the death tax"
Huckabee: Health Care reform: "kill the snake"
Romney: "We don't have to run a deficit" "Let the programs that don't work go", he's in favor of the "no child left behind" program. Higher pay for teachers.
McCain: No good conservative can support extensive subsidies. "Climate Change is real".
Tancredo: "Follow the constitution of this country" "Today we do far too many things.." "Nafta's been a disaster for many places...."
Thompson: We need to tell [rich] people we can't afford their medicare. ".... focus on preserving the tax cuts of 01 and 03". Nafta has helped USA as much as it has helped Mexico.
Hunter: "Nafta is a bad business deal"
The large debate fields are nice in terms of bringing in voices that might normally be stifled, but they really diminish the ability of the candidates to rise above sound bytes. That said, polls are fickle and it would be very questionable to deny any candidate with any viability the right to speak.
Alan Keyes sort of clawed his way into a few questions, accusing the moderator of ignoring him which she did appear to do at first. Keyes audience meter pretty much hit the floor when he first spoke but rose later during a passionate plea for more religion in education.
My take overall was that this debate will consolidate Romney and Huckabee as front runners in Iowa. Giuliani is becoming something of a wild card in the race as the national leader who appears to be in decline. His performace was steady but didn't seem to rise to the level of Huckabee, who is probably the most appealing public speaker in the Republican bunch.
Thompson
Giuliani: "Give the death penalty to the death tax"
Huckabee: Health Care reform: "kill the snake"
Romney: "We don't have to run a deficit" "Let the programs that don't work go", he's in favor of the "no child left behind" program. Higher pay for teachers.
McCain: No good conservative can support extensive subsidies. "Climate Change is real".
Tancredo: "Follow the constitution of this country" "Today we do far too many things.." "Nafta's been a disaster for many places...."
Thompson: We need to tell [rich] people we can't afford their medicare. ".... focus on preserving the tax cuts of 01 and 03". Nafta has helped USA as much as it has helped Mexico.
Hunter: "Nafta is a bad business deal"
Republican Debate in Iowa
In a few moments the Republicans will begin the Iowa debate, which comes at a critical time as attention is far more focused on the election and the race has tightened considerably in the polls, with Giuliani and Thompson, former presumptive frontrunners, quickly losing ground to Romney and Huckabee who appear likely to do well in Iowa.
Monday, December 10, 2007
Huckabee v Obama? Who'd have thunk it?
Despite our suggestions that Clinton and Romney are the presumptive nominees for the big matchup in November of 2008, Huckabee and Obama are surging in the national and state polls, giving each a decent shot at their party's nomination.
Morton Kondrake suggests Huckabee's appeal is as a "compassionate conservative", but suggests he does not have the money or organization for a likely win. Of course people tend to flock to popularity so money and support are already flowing to him. Obama already has an excellent organization and financing machine in place, and this week's Oprah extravaganzas, combined with his improving showing in the Iowa and NH polling, give him a real shot at the nomination.
Predictions? We are still saying Hilary v Romney in general election, but his is American politics and anything - and that means pretty much anything - can change the tide of history almost overnight.
Morton Kondrake suggests Huckabee's appeal is as a "compassionate conservative", but suggests he does not have the money or organization for a likely win. Of course people tend to flock to popularity so money and support are already flowing to him. Obama already has an excellent organization and financing machine in place, and this week's Oprah extravaganzas, combined with his improving showing in the Iowa and NH polling, give him a real shot at the nomination.
Predictions? We are still saying Hilary v Romney in general election, but his is American politics and anything - and that means pretty much anything - can change the tide of history almost overnight.
Sunday, December 09, 2007
Oprah & Obama
Oprah's on the stump with Barack Obama and today drew the biggest crowd so far in the race as some 30,000 people came to see Oprah and hear Obama talk about Obama's vision for the future and reference Martin Luther King's dreams for America.
Although I remain skeptical that Oprah can actually swing more than a handful of voters it is possible she could be a key factor in the race either by swaying more votes than most expect or by tipping tight races in favor of Obama.
Although it is probable Iowa will be a close race it it not clear who will make it all the way to the key big state primaries.
Although I remain skeptical that Oprah can actually swing more than a handful of voters it is possible she could be a key factor in the race either by swaying more votes than most expect or by tipping tight races in favor of Obama.
Although it is probable Iowa will be a close race it it not clear who will make it all the way to the key big state primaries.
Thursday, December 06, 2007
Mitt Romney Religion Speech
Here is the transcript of the Mitt Romney Speech on his religious beliefs and how they affect his politics. This transcript provided by the Mitt Romney website:
"Faith In America" Remarks As Prepared For Delivery The George Bush Presidential Library College Station, Texas December 6, 2007
"Thank you, Mr. President, for your kind introduction. "It is an honor to be here today. This is an inspiring place because of you and the First Lady and because of the film exhibited across the way in the Presidential library. For those who have not seen it, it shows the President as a young pilot, shot down during the Second World War, being rescued from his life-raft by the crew of an American submarine. It is a moving reminder that when America has faced challenge and peril, Americans rise to the occasion, willing to risk their very lives to defend freedom and preserve our nation. We are in your debt. Thank you, Mr. President. "Mr. President, your generation rose to the occasion, first to defeat Fascism and then to vanquish the Soviet Union. You left us, your children, a free and strong America. It is why we call yours the greatest generation. It is now my generation's turn. How we respond to today's challenges will define our generation. And it will determine what kind of America we will leave our children, and theirs. "America faces a new generation of challenges. Radical violent Islam seeks to destroy us. An emerging China endeavors to surpass our economic leadership. And we are troubled at home by government overspending, overuse of foreign oil, and the breakdown of the family. "Over the last year, we have embarked on a national debate on how best to preserve American leadership. Today, I wish to address a topic which I believe is fundamental to America's greatness: our religious liberty. I will also offer perspectives on how my own faith would inform my Presidency, if I were elected. "There are some who may feel that religion is not a matter to be seriously considered in the context of the weighty threats that face us. If so, they are at odds with the nation's founders, for they, when our nation faced its greatest peril, sought the blessings of the Creator. And further, they discovered the essential connection between the survival of a free land and the protection of religious freedom. In John Adams' words: 'We have no government armed with power capable of contending with human passions unbridled by morality and religion... Our constitution was made for a moral and religious people.' "Freedom requires religion just as religion requires freedom. Freedom opens the windows of the soul so that man can discover his most profound beliefs and commune with God. Freedom and religion endure together, or perish alone. "Given our grand tradition of religious tolerance and liberty, some wonder whether there are any questions regarding an aspiring candidate's religion that are appropriate. I believe there are. And I will answer them today. "Almost 50 years ago another candidate from Massachusetts explained that he was an American running for President, not a Catholic running for President. Like him, I am an American running for President. I do not define my candidacy by my religion. A person should not be elected because of his faith nor should he be rejected because of his faith. "Let me assure you that no authorities of my church, or of any other church for that matter, will ever exert influence on presidential decisions. Their authority is theirs, within the province of church affairs, and it ends where the affairs of the nation begin. "As Governor, I tried to do the right as best I knew it, serving the law and answering to the Constitution. I did not confuse the particular teachings of my church with the obligations of the office and of the Constitution – and of course, I would not do so as President. I will put no doctrine of any church above the plain duties of the office and the sovereign authority of the law. "As a young man, Lincoln described what he called America's 'political religion' – the commitment to defend the rule of law and the Constitution. When I place my hand on the Bible and take the oath of office, that oath becomes my highest promise to God. If I am fortunate to become your President, I will serve no one religion, no one group, no one cause, and no one interest. A President must serve only the common cause of the people of the United States. "There are some for whom these commitments are not enough. They would prefer it if I would simply distance myself from my religion, say that it is more a tradition than my personal conviction, or disavow one or another of its precepts. That I will not do. I believe in my Mormon faith and I endeavor to live by it. My faith is the faith of my fathers – I will be true to them and to my beliefs. "Some believe that such a confession of my faith will sink my candidacy. If they are right, so be it. But I think they underestimate the American people. Americans do not respect believers of convenience. Americans tire of those who would jettison their beliefs, even to gain the world. "There is one fundamental question about which I often am asked. What do I believe about Jesus Christ? I believe that Jesus Christ is the Son of God and the Savior of mankind. My church's beliefs about Christ may not all be the same as those of other faiths. Each religion has its own unique doctrines and history. These are not bases for criticism but rather a test of our tolerance. Religious tolerance would be a shallow principle indeed if it were reserved only for faiths with which we agree. "There are some who would have a presidential candidate describe and explain his church's distinctive doctrines. To do so would enable the very religious test the founders prohibited in the Constitution. No candidate should become the spokesman for his faith. For if he becomes President he will need the prayers of the people of all faiths. "I believe that every faith I have encountered draws its adherents closer to God. And in every faith I have come to know, there are features I wish were in my own: I love the profound ceremony of the Catholic Mass, the approachability of God in the prayers of the Evangelicals, the tenderness of spirit among the Pentecostals, the confident independence of the Lutherans, the ancient traditions of the Jews, unchanged through the ages, and the commitment to frequent prayer of the Muslims. As I travel across the country and see our towns and cities, I am always moved by the many houses of worship with their steeples, all pointing to heaven, reminding us of the source of life's blessings. "It is important to recognize that while differences in theology exist between the churches in America, we share a common creed of moral convictions. And where the affairs of our nation are concerned, it's usually a sound rule to focus on the latter – on the great moral principles that urge us all on a common course. Whether it was the cause of abolition, or civil rights, or the right to life itself, no movement of conscience can succeed in America that cannot speak to the convictions of religious people. "We separate church and state affairs in this country, and for good reason. No religion should dictate to the state nor should the state interfere with the free practice of religion. But in recent years, the notion of the separation of church and state has been taken by some well beyond its original meaning. They seek to remove from the public domain any acknowledgment of God. Religion is seen as merely a private affair with no place in public life. It is as if they are intent on establishing a new religion in America – the religion of secularism. They are wrong. "The founders proscribed the establishment of a state religion, but they did not countenance the elimination of religion from the public square. We are a nation 'Under God' and in God, we do indeed trust. "We should acknowledge the Creator as did the Founders – in ceremony and word. He should remain on our currency, in our pledge, in the teaching of our history, and during the holiday season, nativity scenes and menorahs should be welcome in our public places. Our greatness would not long endure without judges who respect the foundation of faith upon which our constitution rests. I will take care to separate the affairs of government from any religion, but I will not separate us from 'the God who gave us liberty.' "Nor would I separate us from our religious heritage. Perhaps the most important question to ask a person of faith who seeks a political office, is this: does he share these American values: the equality of human kind, the obligation to serve one another, and a steadfast commitment to liberty? "They are not unique to any one denomination. They belong to the great moral inheritance we hold in common. They are the firm ground on which Americans of different faiths meet and stand as a nation, united. "We believe that every single human being is a child of God – we are all part of the human family. The conviction of the inherent and inalienable worth of every life is still the most revolutionary political proposition ever advanced. John Adams put it that we are 'thrown into the world all equal and alike.' "The consequence of our common humanity is our responsibility to one another, to our fellow Americans foremost, but also to every child of God. It is an obligation which is fulfilled by Americans every day, here and across the globe, without regard to creed or race or nationality. "Americans acknowledge that liberty is a gift of God, not an indulgence of government. No people in the history of the world have sacrificed as much for liberty. The lives of hundreds of thousands of America's sons and daughters were laid down during the last century to preserve freedom, for us and for freedom loving people throughout the world. America took nothing from that Century's terrible wars – no land from Germany or Japan or Korea; no treasure; no oath of fealty. America's resolve in the defense of liberty has been tested time and again. It has not been found wanting, nor must it ever be. America must never falter in holding high the banner of freedom. "These American values, this great moral heritage, is shared and lived in my religion as it is in yours. I was taught in my home to honor God and love my neighbor. I saw my father march with Martin Luther King. I saw my parents provide compassionate care to others, in personal ways to people nearby, and in just as consequential ways in leading national volunteer movements. I am moved by the Lord's words: 'For I was an hungered, and ye gave me meat: I was thirsty, and ye gave me drink: I was a stranger, and ye took me in: naked, and ye clothed me...' "My faith is grounded on these truths. You can witness them in Ann and my marriage and in our family. We are a long way from perfect and we have surely stumbled along the way, but our aspirations, our values, are the self-same as those from the other faiths that stand upon this common foundation. And these convictions will indeed inform my presidency. "Today's generations of Americans have always known religious liberty. Perhaps we forget the long and arduous path our nation's forbearers took to achieve it. They came here from England to seek freedom of religion. But upon finding it for themselves, they at first denied it to others. Because of their diverse beliefs, Ann Hutchinson was exiled from Massachusetts Bay, a banished Roger Williams founded Rhode Island, and two centuries later, Brigham Young set out for the West. Americans were unable to accommodate their commitment to their own faith with an appreciation for the convictions of others to different faiths. In this, they were very much like those of the European nations they had left. "It was in Philadelphia that our founding fathers defined a revolutionary vision of liberty, grounded on self evident truths about the equality of all, and the inalienable rights with which each is endowed by his Creator. "We cherish these sacred rights, and secure them in our Constitutional order. Foremost do we protect religious liberty, not as a matter of policy but as a matter of right. There will be no established church, and we are guaranteed the free exercise of our religion. "I'm not sure that we fully appreciate the profound implications of our tradition of religious liberty. I have visited many of the magnificent cathedrals in Europe. They are so inspired ... so grand ... so empty. Raised up over generations, long ago, so many of the cathedrals now stand as the postcard backdrop to societies just too busy or too 'enlightened' to venture inside and kneel in prayer. The establishment of state religions in Europe did no favor to Europe's churches. And though you will find many people of strong faith there, the churches themselves seem to be withering away. "Infinitely worse is the other extreme, the creed of conversion by conquest: violent Jihad, murder as martyrdom... killing Christians, Jews, and Muslims with equal indifference. These radical Islamists do their preaching not by reason or example, but in the coercion of minds and the shedding of blood. We face no greater danger today than theocratic tyranny, and the boundless suffering these states and groups could inflict if given the chance. "The diversity of our cultural expression, and the vibrancy of our religious dialogue, has kept America in the forefront of civilized nations even as others regard religious freedom as something to be destroyed. "In such a world, we can be deeply thankful that we live in a land where reason and religion are friends and allies in the cause of liberty, joined against the evils and dangers of the day. And you can be certain of this: Any believer in religious freedom, any person who has knelt in prayer to the Almighty, has a friend and ally in me. And so it is for hundreds of millions of our countrymen: we do not insist on a single strain of religion – rather, we welcome our nation's symphony of faith. "Recall the early days of the First Continental Congress in Philadelphia, during the fall of 1774. With Boston occupied by British troops, there were rumors of imminent hostilities and fears of an impending war. In this time of peril, someone suggested that they pray. But there were objections. 'They were too divided in religious sentiments', what with Episcopalians and Quakers, Anabaptists and Congregationalists, Presbyterians and Catholics. "Then Sam Adams rose, and said he would hear a prayer from anyone of piety and good character, as long as they were a patriot. "And so together they prayed, and together they fought, and together, by the grace of God ... they founded this great nation. "In that spirit, let us give thanks to the divine 'author of liberty.' And together, let us pray that this land may always be blessed, 'with freedom's holy light.' "God bless the United States of America."
"Faith In America" Remarks As Prepared For Delivery The George Bush Presidential Library College Station, Texas December 6, 2007
"Thank you, Mr. President, for your kind introduction. "It is an honor to be here today. This is an inspiring place because of you and the First Lady and because of the film exhibited across the way in the Presidential library. For those who have not seen it, it shows the President as a young pilot, shot down during the Second World War, being rescued from his life-raft by the crew of an American submarine. It is a moving reminder that when America has faced challenge and peril, Americans rise to the occasion, willing to risk their very lives to defend freedom and preserve our nation. We are in your debt. Thank you, Mr. President. "Mr. President, your generation rose to the occasion, first to defeat Fascism and then to vanquish the Soviet Union. You left us, your children, a free and strong America. It is why we call yours the greatest generation. It is now my generation's turn. How we respond to today's challenges will define our generation. And it will determine what kind of America we will leave our children, and theirs. "America faces a new generation of challenges. Radical violent Islam seeks to destroy us. An emerging China endeavors to surpass our economic leadership. And we are troubled at home by government overspending, overuse of foreign oil, and the breakdown of the family. "Over the last year, we have embarked on a national debate on how best to preserve American leadership. Today, I wish to address a topic which I believe is fundamental to America's greatness: our religious liberty. I will also offer perspectives on how my own faith would inform my Presidency, if I were elected. "There are some who may feel that religion is not a matter to be seriously considered in the context of the weighty threats that face us. If so, they are at odds with the nation's founders, for they, when our nation faced its greatest peril, sought the blessings of the Creator. And further, they discovered the essential connection between the survival of a free land and the protection of religious freedom. In John Adams' words: 'We have no government armed with power capable of contending with human passions unbridled by morality and religion... Our constitution was made for a moral and religious people.' "Freedom requires religion just as religion requires freedom. Freedom opens the windows of the soul so that man can discover his most profound beliefs and commune with God. Freedom and religion endure together, or perish alone. "Given our grand tradition of religious tolerance and liberty, some wonder whether there are any questions regarding an aspiring candidate's religion that are appropriate. I believe there are. And I will answer them today. "Almost 50 years ago another candidate from Massachusetts explained that he was an American running for President, not a Catholic running for President. Like him, I am an American running for President. I do not define my candidacy by my religion. A person should not be elected because of his faith nor should he be rejected because of his faith. "Let me assure you that no authorities of my church, or of any other church for that matter, will ever exert influence on presidential decisions. Their authority is theirs, within the province of church affairs, and it ends where the affairs of the nation begin. "As Governor, I tried to do the right as best I knew it, serving the law and answering to the Constitution. I did not confuse the particular teachings of my church with the obligations of the office and of the Constitution – and of course, I would not do so as President. I will put no doctrine of any church above the plain duties of the office and the sovereign authority of the law. "As a young man, Lincoln described what he called America's 'political religion' – the commitment to defend the rule of law and the Constitution. When I place my hand on the Bible and take the oath of office, that oath becomes my highest promise to God. If I am fortunate to become your President, I will serve no one religion, no one group, no one cause, and no one interest. A President must serve only the common cause of the people of the United States. "There are some for whom these commitments are not enough. They would prefer it if I would simply distance myself from my religion, say that it is more a tradition than my personal conviction, or disavow one or another of its precepts. That I will not do. I believe in my Mormon faith and I endeavor to live by it. My faith is the faith of my fathers – I will be true to them and to my beliefs. "Some believe that such a confession of my faith will sink my candidacy. If they are right, so be it. But I think they underestimate the American people. Americans do not respect believers of convenience. Americans tire of those who would jettison their beliefs, even to gain the world. "There is one fundamental question about which I often am asked. What do I believe about Jesus Christ? I believe that Jesus Christ is the Son of God and the Savior of mankind. My church's beliefs about Christ may not all be the same as those of other faiths. Each religion has its own unique doctrines and history. These are not bases for criticism but rather a test of our tolerance. Religious tolerance would be a shallow principle indeed if it were reserved only for faiths with which we agree. "There are some who would have a presidential candidate describe and explain his church's distinctive doctrines. To do so would enable the very religious test the founders prohibited in the Constitution. No candidate should become the spokesman for his faith. For if he becomes President he will need the prayers of the people of all faiths. "I believe that every faith I have encountered draws its adherents closer to God. And in every faith I have come to know, there are features I wish were in my own: I love the profound ceremony of the Catholic Mass, the approachability of God in the prayers of the Evangelicals, the tenderness of spirit among the Pentecostals, the confident independence of the Lutherans, the ancient traditions of the Jews, unchanged through the ages, and the commitment to frequent prayer of the Muslims. As I travel across the country and see our towns and cities, I am always moved by the many houses of worship with their steeples, all pointing to heaven, reminding us of the source of life's blessings. "It is important to recognize that while differences in theology exist between the churches in America, we share a common creed of moral convictions. And where the affairs of our nation are concerned, it's usually a sound rule to focus on the latter – on the great moral principles that urge us all on a common course. Whether it was the cause of abolition, or civil rights, or the right to life itself, no movement of conscience can succeed in America that cannot speak to the convictions of religious people. "We separate church and state affairs in this country, and for good reason. No religion should dictate to the state nor should the state interfere with the free practice of religion. But in recent years, the notion of the separation of church and state has been taken by some well beyond its original meaning. They seek to remove from the public domain any acknowledgment of God. Religion is seen as merely a private affair with no place in public life. It is as if they are intent on establishing a new religion in America – the religion of secularism. They are wrong. "The founders proscribed the establishment of a state religion, but they did not countenance the elimination of religion from the public square. We are a nation 'Under God' and in God, we do indeed trust. "We should acknowledge the Creator as did the Founders – in ceremony and word. He should remain on our currency, in our pledge, in the teaching of our history, and during the holiday season, nativity scenes and menorahs should be welcome in our public places. Our greatness would not long endure without judges who respect the foundation of faith upon which our constitution rests. I will take care to separate the affairs of government from any religion, but I will not separate us from 'the God who gave us liberty.' "Nor would I separate us from our religious heritage. Perhaps the most important question to ask a person of faith who seeks a political office, is this: does he share these American values: the equality of human kind, the obligation to serve one another, and a steadfast commitment to liberty? "They are not unique to any one denomination. They belong to the great moral inheritance we hold in common. They are the firm ground on which Americans of different faiths meet and stand as a nation, united. "We believe that every single human being is a child of God – we are all part of the human family. The conviction of the inherent and inalienable worth of every life is still the most revolutionary political proposition ever advanced. John Adams put it that we are 'thrown into the world all equal and alike.' "The consequence of our common humanity is our responsibility to one another, to our fellow Americans foremost, but also to every child of God. It is an obligation which is fulfilled by Americans every day, here and across the globe, without regard to creed or race or nationality. "Americans acknowledge that liberty is a gift of God, not an indulgence of government. No people in the history of the world have sacrificed as much for liberty. The lives of hundreds of thousands of America's sons and daughters were laid down during the last century to preserve freedom, for us and for freedom loving people throughout the world. America took nothing from that Century's terrible wars – no land from Germany or Japan or Korea; no treasure; no oath of fealty. America's resolve in the defense of liberty has been tested time and again. It has not been found wanting, nor must it ever be. America must never falter in holding high the banner of freedom. "These American values, this great moral heritage, is shared and lived in my religion as it is in yours. I was taught in my home to honor God and love my neighbor. I saw my father march with Martin Luther King. I saw my parents provide compassionate care to others, in personal ways to people nearby, and in just as consequential ways in leading national volunteer movements. I am moved by the Lord's words: 'For I was an hungered, and ye gave me meat: I was thirsty, and ye gave me drink: I was a stranger, and ye took me in: naked, and ye clothed me...' "My faith is grounded on these truths. You can witness them in Ann and my marriage and in our family. We are a long way from perfect and we have surely stumbled along the way, but our aspirations, our values, are the self-same as those from the other faiths that stand upon this common foundation. And these convictions will indeed inform my presidency. "Today's generations of Americans have always known religious liberty. Perhaps we forget the long and arduous path our nation's forbearers took to achieve it. They came here from England to seek freedom of religion. But upon finding it for themselves, they at first denied it to others. Because of their diverse beliefs, Ann Hutchinson was exiled from Massachusetts Bay, a banished Roger Williams founded Rhode Island, and two centuries later, Brigham Young set out for the West. Americans were unable to accommodate their commitment to their own faith with an appreciation for the convictions of others to different faiths. In this, they were very much like those of the European nations they had left. "It was in Philadelphia that our founding fathers defined a revolutionary vision of liberty, grounded on self evident truths about the equality of all, and the inalienable rights with which each is endowed by his Creator. "We cherish these sacred rights, and secure them in our Constitutional order. Foremost do we protect religious liberty, not as a matter of policy but as a matter of right. There will be no established church, and we are guaranteed the free exercise of our religion. "I'm not sure that we fully appreciate the profound implications of our tradition of religious liberty. I have visited many of the magnificent cathedrals in Europe. They are so inspired ... so grand ... so empty. Raised up over generations, long ago, so many of the cathedrals now stand as the postcard backdrop to societies just too busy or too 'enlightened' to venture inside and kneel in prayer. The establishment of state religions in Europe did no favor to Europe's churches. And though you will find many people of strong faith there, the churches themselves seem to be withering away. "Infinitely worse is the other extreme, the creed of conversion by conquest: violent Jihad, murder as martyrdom... killing Christians, Jews, and Muslims with equal indifference. These radical Islamists do their preaching not by reason or example, but in the coercion of minds and the shedding of blood. We face no greater danger today than theocratic tyranny, and the boundless suffering these states and groups could inflict if given the chance. "The diversity of our cultural expression, and the vibrancy of our religious dialogue, has kept America in the forefront of civilized nations even as others regard religious freedom as something to be destroyed. "In such a world, we can be deeply thankful that we live in a land where reason and religion are friends and allies in the cause of liberty, joined against the evils and dangers of the day. And you can be certain of this: Any believer in religious freedom, any person who has knelt in prayer to the Almighty, has a friend and ally in me. And so it is for hundreds of millions of our countrymen: we do not insist on a single strain of religion – rather, we welcome our nation's symphony of faith. "Recall the early days of the First Continental Congress in Philadelphia, during the fall of 1774. With Boston occupied by British troops, there were rumors of imminent hostilities and fears of an impending war. In this time of peril, someone suggested that they pray. But there were objections. 'They were too divided in religious sentiments', what with Episcopalians and Quakers, Anabaptists and Congregationalists, Presbyterians and Catholics. "Then Sam Adams rose, and said he would hear a prayer from anyone of piety and good character, as long as they were a patriot. "And so together they prayed, and together they fought, and together, by the grace of God ... they founded this great nation. "In that spirit, let us give thanks to the divine 'author of liberty.' And together, let us pray that this land may always be blessed, 'with freedom's holy light.' "God bless the United States of America."
Wednesday, December 05, 2007
Chris Mathews: Clinton in trouble, attacking kindergarten comments by Obama
As much as I enjoy Chris Mathews and Hardball, he's really full of a lot of crap these days, I think in no small part because of his frustration that the Clinton campaign has so effectively managed his beloved free and reckless press sensibilities.
Yesterday on Hardball Chris foolishly suggested that Clinton's numbers were in "free fall" since her poor performance in an earlier debate regarding immigration. Also that this is why she was slinging some dirt on Obama, suggesting he said something in his foreign kindergarten. Again obviously this was not Clinton gasping for some poll air, rather floating a test balloon to see how negative stuff will gain traction against Obama. Given that it's not working well look for this type of petty attack to stop for the next few weeks, only to return in full force if Clinton is not leading in Iowa 2 weeks out.
She may have dropped a bit, but hardly a free fall Chris, and the main reason for the Iowa surge by Obama is ... obviously ... the fact this is almost make or break for his campaign! Hilary is running a national campaign already, and has done it very effectively. Obama is running an Iowa campaign and he's done that very effectively. However his numbers nationally and in New Hampshire suggest no staying power even with an Iowa win. He'll get a buzz boost if he wins Iowa, and this could lead to a NH victory or great showing which would could *concievably* make him nationally competitive, but this is unlikely.
Prediction: Clinton will come on strong in Iowa in last few weeks, and will win by 5-10%. She'll handily win N.H., and the race will largely be over as soon as it began. Obama has a shot at VP though his views are so compatible with Clinton's I'm not clear he'll be part of the strategy.
Yesterday on Hardball Chris foolishly suggested that Clinton's numbers were in "free fall" since her poor performance in an earlier debate regarding immigration. Also that this is why she was slinging some dirt on Obama, suggesting he said something in his foreign kindergarten. Again obviously this was not Clinton gasping for some poll air, rather floating a test balloon to see how negative stuff will gain traction against Obama. Given that it's not working well look for this type of petty attack to stop for the next few weeks, only to return in full force if Clinton is not leading in Iowa 2 weeks out.
She may have dropped a bit, but hardly a free fall Chris, and the main reason for the Iowa surge by Obama is ... obviously ... the fact this is almost make or break for his campaign! Hilary is running a national campaign already, and has done it very effectively. Obama is running an Iowa campaign and he's done that very effectively. However his numbers nationally and in New Hampshire suggest no staying power even with an Iowa win. He'll get a buzz boost if he wins Iowa, and this could lead to a NH victory or great showing which would could *concievably* make him nationally competitive, but this is unlikely.
Prediction: Clinton will come on strong in Iowa in last few weeks, and will win by 5-10%. She'll handily win N.H., and the race will largely be over as soon as it began. Obama has a shot at VP though his views are so compatible with Clinton's I'm not clear he'll be part of the strategy.
Romney on religion
Tomorrow's speech by Mitt Romney on his religious views will be a very significant event in the republican primary (I'd say speech about Romney's "Mormon religious views", but I bet Romney himself will only say the word "Mormon" a few times).
Look for Romney to do this:
Very gently outline Mormon beliefs, stressing their Christian basis and general compatibility with mainstream Protestantism.
Very powerfully suggest how important faith and religion are to his life, stressing things shared by Christians rather than the Mormon items.
Wrap up with suggestions that his views are "just like" the views of mainstream Christian Protestants and Catholics.
Mention Jesus several times and Joseph Smith no more than once.
Many are comparing this to JFK's speech abut his Catholic heritage not being a threat to America, but I think this is probably misguided because times have changed so much in the past 47 American years of elections.
Unless Romney fails miserably with his delivery or gets off point, I think he'll put the religious issues to rest until the general election. Why?
* Mormonism is not a radical religion, rather more of an offshoot of Christianity. Aside from some quirky sect views mainstream Christians won't be as threatened by this as many now suggest.
* Religion is NOT as powerful a force for Republicans as many have suggested. Although Karl Rove and other brilliant manipulations of the religious right wing helped in elections it is not at all clear they changed outcomes, because religious right wing folks are very likely to vote conservative Republican and very likely to vote. Will they vote for Romney? I think yes, because they'll see that he's the best shot against Hilary Clinton. In this sense Huckabee may post a challenge for Romney as he'll draw the votes that Romney would have won over Giuliani.
A master stroke for Romney would pull Huckabee into his campaign immediately as his prospective VP. Very unusual move, but I Huckabee simply does not have the cash to win and this combination would allay many concerns about Romney's religion and sincerity. Also, Huckabee with cash would have a good shot at winning the whole thing. Huckabee plus Romney would be unbeatable in Republican Primary and then could play the national election as a "moderate to liberal Romney" with a "true conservative Huckabee" unifying theme. This would challenge Clinton to also pick a very powerful VP - probably Obama - and we'd see one of the most ideologically contrasted elections in some time.
Look for Romney to do this:
Very gently outline Mormon beliefs, stressing their Christian basis and general compatibility with mainstream Protestantism.
Very powerfully suggest how important faith and religion are to his life, stressing things shared by Christians rather than the Mormon items.
Wrap up with suggestions that his views are "just like" the views of mainstream Christian Protestants and Catholics.
Mention Jesus several times and Joseph Smith no more than once.
Many are comparing this to JFK's speech abut his Catholic heritage not being a threat to America, but I think this is probably misguided because times have changed so much in the past 47 American years of elections.
Unless Romney fails miserably with his delivery or gets off point, I think he'll put the religious issues to rest until the general election. Why?
* Mormonism is not a radical religion, rather more of an offshoot of Christianity. Aside from some quirky sect views mainstream Christians won't be as threatened by this as many now suggest.
* Religion is NOT as powerful a force for Republicans as many have suggested. Although Karl Rove and other brilliant manipulations of the religious right wing helped in elections it is not at all clear they changed outcomes, because religious right wing folks are very likely to vote conservative Republican and very likely to vote. Will they vote for Romney? I think yes, because they'll see that he's the best shot against Hilary Clinton. In this sense Huckabee may post a challenge for Romney as he'll draw the votes that Romney would have won over Giuliani.
A master stroke for Romney would pull Huckabee into his campaign immediately as his prospective VP. Very unusual move, but I Huckabee simply does not have the cash to win and this combination would allay many concerns about Romney's religion and sincerity. Also, Huckabee with cash would have a good shot at winning the whole thing. Huckabee plus Romney would be unbeatable in Republican Primary and then could play the national election as a "moderate to liberal Romney" with a "true conservative Huckabee" unifying theme. This would challenge Clinton to also pick a very powerful VP - probably Obama - and we'd see one of the most ideologically contrasted elections in some time.
Tuesday, December 04, 2007
Giuliani in trouble. Big trouble
Rudy Giuliani's campaign is in *very big* trouble. It's not really because of the recent allegations that he abused spending in New York City to cover his mistress' (now wife's) security during his affair. It is because he's simply not the kind of candidate Republicans can back very enthusiastically.
Giuliani has a personally very checkered past, he's pro-choice, and he's kind of squirrely in the personality department. Reagan represented the "ideal" candidate for the Republican set of sensibilities. Handsome and imposing but also jovial and "old boy network", no-nonsense with his conservative policies, somewhat polished but not brilliant.
So, who gains from this? Huckabee. It's Huckabee v Romney now, and even though I earlier suggested Romney was "in" I think Huckabee has a shot at this if he can quickly assemble a *substantial* war chest. In America you can't buy elections, as Ross Perot's bottomless money potential only got him so far. But without much campaign cash you will lose. Period.
Giuliani has a personally very checkered past, he's pro-choice, and he's kind of squirrely in the personality department. Reagan represented the "ideal" candidate for the Republican set of sensibilities. Handsome and imposing but also jovial and "old boy network", no-nonsense with his conservative policies, somewhat polished but not brilliant.
So, who gains from this? Huckabee. It's Huckabee v Romney now, and even though I earlier suggested Romney was "in" I think Huckabee has a shot at this if he can quickly assemble a *substantial* war chest. In America you can't buy elections, as Ross Perot's bottomless money potential only got him so far. But without much campaign cash you will lose. Period.
Friday, November 30, 2007
Obama-Bloomberg 2008?
There has been some speculation after a Bloomberg Obama meeting in New York City that we could see a ObamaBloomberg ticket running for the Democratic nomination.
Although I wouldn't bet on this as "likely", it's certainly a very interesting possibility. Obama has shown a lot of traction in Iowa where today's CNN poll numbers had Obama and Clinton in a virtual dead heat, but he's losing in New Hampshire and things appear to get worse for him after that as South Carolina is clearly in Clinton land. Bloomberg's popularity in the east could further diffuse the Clinton juggernaut, and Bloomberg's billion-fat wallet could fund a lot of campaign advertising.
Although I wouldn't bet on this as "likely", it's certainly a very interesting possibility. Obama has shown a lot of traction in Iowa where today's CNN poll numbers had Obama and Clinton in a virtual dead heat, but he's losing in New Hampshire and things appear to get worse for him after that as South Carolina is clearly in Clinton land. Bloomberg's popularity in the east could further diffuse the Clinton juggernaut, and Bloomberg's billion-fat wallet could fund a lot of campaign advertising.
Clinton Campaign Hostages probably safe
Network news was reporting that the hostages taken at Hilary Clinton's campaign HQ in Rochester, NH were safe, but the press conference a few moments ago suggested there may still be hostages in thebuilding.
The fate of the hostage taker is not clear, though he was reported to have something strapped to his chest and calling it a bomb, and was asking to talk to Senator Clinton.
As of 4:45m EST the police are still surrounding the building, a bomb squad is on the scence, and presumably only the hostage-taker remains inside the building thought that is not clear.
The fate of the hostage taker is not clear, though he was reported to have something strapped to his chest and calling it a bomb, and was asking to talk to Senator Clinton.
As of 4:45m EST the police are still surrounding the building, a bomb squad is on the scence, and presumably only the hostage-taker remains inside the building thought that is not clear.
Breaking news: Possible Hostage taken at Cliton Campaign office in NH
Reports are coming in from Rochester, NH that hostages have been taken at Hilary Clinton's NH campaign office. Clinton is *not* in that office, but it appears 2 people have been taken by a man claiming to have a bomb.
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Giuliani in Republican debate - I'm not just about 9/11. Thompson still languishing in delivery and in polls
Giuliani very effectively answered the YouTube question asking about whether he is running only on his 9/11 record. Giuliani cited his history of New York City service including prosecution of complex cases, reductions in welfare and crime and abortions, and working with New York's enormous global economy.
Thompson, on the other hand, showed his characteristic debate problems - a slow and somewhat rambling style of delivery combined with what always seems to be a limited grasp of the nuances that underly so many complex political issues. Thompson is no Ronald Reagan and I think he has little chance of a late surge in the polls.
Thompson, on the other hand, showed his characteristic debate problems - a slow and somewhat rambling style of delivery combined with what always seems to be a limited grasp of the nuances that underly so many complex political issues. Thompson is no Ronald Reagan and I think he has little chance of a late surge in the polls.
Romney, Huckabee and the Republican debate
Mitt Romney was not "weak" in tonight's debate but he didn't really shine either. In fact the candidate that really seemed to stand out as a forceful and thoughtful proponent was Mike Huckabee, perhaps an indication of why he's surging in many polls.
Huckabee appeared the most poised as he addressed issues like religion and the death penalty.
As candidates often do, Romney carefully parses many answers carefully to avoid damaging sound bites. His exchange with McCain over torture and waterboarding left one wondering if Romney is willing to take a strong stand, though his abortion statements seemed to please the crowd when he said he was wrong to be pro-choice early in his career and is now emphatically pro-life.
Huckabee appeared the most poised as he addressed issues like religion and the death penalty.
As candidates often do, Romney carefully parses many answers carefully to avoid damaging sound bites. His exchange with McCain over torture and waterboarding left one wondering if Romney is willing to take a strong stand, though his abortion statements seemed to please the crowd when he said he was wrong to be pro-choice early in his career and is now emphatically pro-life.
McCain - we are winning in Iraq
John McCain has stuck to our guns in Iraq, and argued in tonight's debate that the surge is now working and America must stay the course in Iraq. "If we continue this strategy we can succeed", "There is a lot at stake" "Let us win, let us win".
For a deep and thoughtful view of John McCain see his Charlie Rose interview of last night, which offered some of the best insight into the character and policies of McCain as Presidential candidate. Charlie Rose, PBS
For a deep and thoughtful view of John McCain see his Charlie Rose interview of last night, which offered some of the best insight into the character and policies of McCain as Presidential candidate. Charlie Rose, PBS
Republican YouTube CNN debate
Tonight the Republicans debate was hosted by CNN and YouTube. Anderson Cooper did a stand up moderating job. I'm not enamored with the YouTube format, feeling that the questions tend to be quirky or sort of "gotcha!" style rather than a thoughtful reflection on the perils and promises of our American democracy.
But who am I kidding? The American elections are more an entertainment and marketing excercise than a study in debate and democracy, and tonight was no exception to that as YouTubers did ask some good questions like "what will you do about Black on Black violence" and "What would you do to repair the image of America" in the eyes of the world?
But who am I kidding? The American elections are more an entertainment and marketing excercise than a study in debate and democracy, and tonight was no exception to that as YouTubers did ask some good questions like "what will you do about Black on Black violence" and "What would you do to repair the image of America" in the eyes of the world?
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Giuliani still leading nationally
Rudy Giuliani is still the clear Republican frontrunner. Here at President Picker we are predicting a Mitt Romney win based on what we predict will be early victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, but this is speculative. In national polls Giuliani is still clearly ahead of Romney, and it's possible the early primaries will not presage any victories in the much larger state primaries that will come later in the season.
What is remarkable is that the decision is now upon us. In only six weeks the primary season begins with the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire primary follows shortly thereafter.
What is remarkable is that the decision is now upon us. In only six weeks the primary season begins with the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire primary follows shortly thereafter.
Friday, November 16, 2007
Barack "Tech" Obama at Google
Over at Webguild there is a recap of Barack Obama's talk with Eric Schmidt over at the Googleplex in Silicon Valley. Obama has some good ideas for tech and Lasandra Brill has noted these points by Obama:
Pro Net Neutrality
Technology can bring governmental transparency
Appoint a Chief Technology Officer for the nation
Boadband internet access for all
Digital Privacy Protections
Electronic Health Records
Sounds like a good start!
Pro Net Neutrality
Technology can bring governmental transparency
Appoint a Chief Technology Officer for the nation
Boadband internet access for all
Digital Privacy Protections
Electronic Health Records
Sounds like a good start!
Why Romney Will Win the Republican Nomination
President Picker predicts that Mitt Romney will soon be the clear front runner in the Republican primaries, and that Romney will go on to win the nomination. There are several key factors that suggest a Romney win:
First, Fred Thompson has not turned out to be the "Ronald Reagan" his supporters insist he is. Thompson generally appears tired and irritated and impatient with the process, which probably goes against much of the grain of his Limousine Hollywood Conservatism. Like Giuliani Thompson carries more than the normal personal baggage of a presidential candidate, and although conservatives are generally very forgiving of any heterosexual personal transgressions of fellow conservatives this challenge takes a toll with voters on the fence.
With McCain now pretty much out of the picture due to his Iraq war support and money problems, Giuliani is Romney's key competition, and Giuliani will prove no match for Romney. Among the many reasons are Romney's (sincere I assume) born again anti abortionist stance which makes it easy for core conservatives to overlook his Mormon religion. Also, Romney is brilliantly downplaying his religion as a factor in the race. Mormonism is controversial, especially among bible belt conservatives, but if Romney can stress his legitimate claim to solid family values and strong religious beliefs he'll be able to successfully continue to downplay the specific beliefs that might offend other conservatives. Clearly his anti abortion stance will trump Giuliani's pro choice stance and clearly this is more of a factor for conservatives than Mormonism.
Lastly and most importantly Romney is the most *presidential looking* of the candidates. Even those of us who claim to maintain impartialy with respect to looks and demeanor .. do not maintain impartiality. Reagan and Clinton were masters at looking and acting presidential, and both got more credit for this than is commonly recognized. As the election heats up and advertising hits national markets, look for Romney to get a boost simply because he looks and acts very presidential.
First, Fred Thompson has not turned out to be the "Ronald Reagan" his supporters insist he is. Thompson generally appears tired and irritated and impatient with the process, which probably goes against much of the grain of his Limousine Hollywood Conservatism. Like Giuliani Thompson carries more than the normal personal baggage of a presidential candidate, and although conservatives are generally very forgiving of any heterosexual personal transgressions of fellow conservatives this challenge takes a toll with voters on the fence.
With McCain now pretty much out of the picture due to his Iraq war support and money problems, Giuliani is Romney's key competition, and Giuliani will prove no match for Romney. Among the many reasons are Romney's (sincere I assume) born again anti abortionist stance which makes it easy for core conservatives to overlook his Mormon religion. Also, Romney is brilliantly downplaying his religion as a factor in the race. Mormonism is controversial, especially among bible belt conservatives, but if Romney can stress his legitimate claim to solid family values and strong religious beliefs he'll be able to successfully continue to downplay the specific beliefs that might offend other conservatives. Clearly his anti abortion stance will trump Giuliani's pro choice stance and clearly this is more of a factor for conservatives than Mormonism.
Lastly and most importantly Romney is the most *presidential looking* of the candidates. Even those of us who claim to maintain impartialy with respect to looks and demeanor .. do not maintain impartiality. Reagan and Clinton were masters at looking and acting presidential, and both got more credit for this than is commonly recognized. As the election heats up and advertising hits national markets, look for Romney to get a boost simply because he looks and acts very presidential.
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Democratic Las Vegas Debate
Hilary wins, game over.
The interesting race now among the Democrats is for the Vice Presidential spot. Tonight and before Bill Richardson seems to be the most enthusiastic of the "VP Candidates", but I'd now lean very strongly to guessing Hilary will pick Obama. This will energize the ticket with those who would otherwise be discouraged to see the "old Democratic guard" come back into power and also will allow Hilary to play a far more conservative role in the general election while Obama can be her clear "liberal card". Look for a Clinton Obama ticket.
The interesting race now among the Democrats is for the Vice Presidential spot. Tonight and before Bill Richardson seems to be the most enthusiastic of the "VP Candidates", but I'd now lean very strongly to guessing Hilary will pick Obama. This will energize the ticket with those who would otherwise be discouraged to see the "old Democratic guard" come back into power and also will allow Hilary to play a far more conservative role in the general election while Obama can be her clear "liberal card". Look for a Clinton Obama ticket.
Monday, November 12, 2007
Giuliani vs Romney and Clinton vs Obama
OK, I think even the probable winners are clear now (Romney and Clinton), but it's very hard to think any of the "third place" folks have much of a chance now. Some suggest we may see a repeat of the democratic primaries where John Kerry came out of early poor shows to capture the nomination, but the ballgame is very, very different now. First, Clinton is the "heir apparent" to the nomination for the Dems, and it would take simply *enormous* political risk not to back her if the campaigns heat up. You don't build up decades of political capital for nothing, and I can hardly see mayors and governors come out of meetings with Bill Clinton telling him they are not going to publicly support Hilary.
Pundits love races, so people like Chris Mathews are enthusiastically hoping for a horserace and overplaying Obama's recent poll successes in Iowa. He's not talking enough about the fact that even if Obama squeaks by with an Iowa win (unlikely), this won't leave him with enough time and money to spend in the upcoming primaries. The "must take Iowa" strategy was probably wise, but I'm guessing from the polls it's taking it's toll on the Obama campaign. If Obama loses in Iowa he's pretty much out. If Obama wins in Iowa it's an enormous uphill struggle to capture votes in even one of the next several primaries. Ergo..... Clinton wins and this will be clear soon. Dems don't want to be fighting when they can be bashing Bush and the Republican nominee.
Next: Why Romney will win the Republican nomination
Pundits love races, so people like Chris Mathews are enthusiastically hoping for a horserace and overplaying Obama's recent poll successes in Iowa. He's not talking enough about the fact that even if Obama squeaks by with an Iowa win (unlikely), this won't leave him with enough time and money to spend in the upcoming primaries. The "must take Iowa" strategy was probably wise, but I'm guessing from the polls it's taking it's toll on the Obama campaign. If Obama loses in Iowa he's pretty much out. If Obama wins in Iowa it's an enormous uphill struggle to capture votes in even one of the next several primaries. Ergo..... Clinton wins and this will be clear soon. Dems don't want to be fighting when they can be bashing Bush and the Republican nominee.
Next: Why Romney will win the Republican nomination
Saturday, November 03, 2007
Obama+Oprah=Obama?
When Oprah, one of the world's most influential entertainment celebrities, announced that she'd be backing Barack Obama in the democratic presidential primary many thought this would be a huge benefit to the Obama campaign. Some seemed to think this was the boost he needed to catch up to Hilary Clinton in the polls.
However Oprah's endorsement didn't do much if anything to lift Obama out of a distant second in the democratic race.
Why? It now seems clear that Oprah's legendary influence does not extend into the political realm. I'm guessing there are two key factors here: First, viewers already have their political minds made up for the most part. They'll take Oprah's advice for books or lifestyle or personal training or (sometimes) for the virtues of dieting, but they simply won't change their mind about "important" things. Also, I'd guess the Oprah democraphic lines up strongly with support for Hilary Clinton and those viewers like Clinton for much the same reasons they like Oprah.
However Oprah's endorsement didn't do much if anything to lift Obama out of a distant second in the democratic race.
Why? It now seems clear that Oprah's legendary influence does not extend into the political realm. I'm guessing there are two key factors here: First, viewers already have their political minds made up for the most part. They'll take Oprah's advice for books or lifestyle or personal training or (sometimes) for the virtues of dieting, but they simply won't change their mind about "important" things. Also, I'd guess the Oprah democraphic lines up strongly with support for Hilary Clinton and those viewers like Clinton for much the same reasons they like Oprah.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Iowa Caucuses to be held January 3rd, 2008
The caucus and primary sweepstakes continues as Iowa annoucnces it's caucuses will be held January 3rd. New Hampshire is expected to announce dates this week and appears likely to choose January 8th. These decisions mean the earliest primary season in history, and mean we will probably know the democratic and republican candidates very early in the year - perhaps as early as February.
President Picker is very confident that the Democratic nominee will be Hilary Clinton, who leads hugely in the polls and we predict that Mitt Romney will be the Republican primary winner.
President Picker is very confident that the Democratic nominee will be Hilary Clinton, who leads hugely in the polls and we predict that Mitt Romney will be the Republican primary winner.
Sunday, October 28, 2007
Republican Presidential Debate
FOX News hosted a debate among the Republican contenders for the 2008 US Presidential Crown. It is interesting to see how Huckabee as an "up and coming" candidate in the polls and Romney as one of the leaders seemed to be in top form. At one point Tom Tancredo, who has been an outspoken critic of how the other candidates are not conservative enough, stopped to note that he thought all the candidates were men of quality but offered different alternatives.
As in the prior debate I saw, Thompson seems to be failing to address criticisms and seems to be falling back on canned statements rather than possessing the quick wit of a Giuliani, Huckabee, or Paul. Thompson does clearly not have the campaign presence of Ronald Reagan despite the fact he's being billed like that by Republican supporters. I predict this will condemn his campaign after what will likely be lackluster showings in southern states - probably around February or March of 2008.
Despite a standing ovation after John McCain's joke and criticism of Hilary Clinton, his performances lack the "fire" needed to win this race. He was the front runner and failed to consolidate his position early in the race. I actually think age is playing a role with McCain and he simply does not have the energy required for these massively social experiences which involve traveling millions of miles annually and meeting tens of thousands of people every month.
Man to watch here? Mitt Romney. Clearly he's got *all* the others in the stature department, most conspicuously Giuliani who always looks squirrely and shrill in a Romney v Giuliani persona lineup. Contrary to what most of us think about how we evaluate people it's based in large part on the way they look and carry themselves and not on what they say or do. This factor, in my opinion, will trump what seem to be diminishing concerns about Romney's Mormonism.
Prediction: 2008 election will be Romney vs Clinton
As in the prior debate I saw, Thompson seems to be failing to address criticisms and seems to be falling back on canned statements rather than possessing the quick wit of a Giuliani, Huckabee, or Paul. Thompson does clearly not have the campaign presence of Ronald Reagan despite the fact he's being billed like that by Republican supporters. I predict this will condemn his campaign after what will likely be lackluster showings in southern states - probably around February or March of 2008.
Despite a standing ovation after John McCain's joke and criticism of Hilary Clinton, his performances lack the "fire" needed to win this race. He was the front runner and failed to consolidate his position early in the race. I actually think age is playing a role with McCain and he simply does not have the energy required for these massively social experiences which involve traveling millions of miles annually and meeting tens of thousands of people every month.
Man to watch here? Mitt Romney. Clearly he's got *all* the others in the stature department, most conspicuously Giuliani who always looks squirrely and shrill in a Romney v Giuliani persona lineup. Contrary to what most of us think about how we evaluate people it's based in large part on the way they look and carry themselves and not on what they say or do. This factor, in my opinion, will trump what seem to be diminishing concerns about Romney's Mormonism.
Prediction: 2008 election will be Romney vs Clinton
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
The Hilary Hater Factor
It is often suggested that Clinton can't win the election because her "negative" numbers are so high in many polls. Clearly Clinton is probably one of the most negatively viewed presidential candidates in some time, but I think people are mistaking current perception as future perception. George Bush, in addition to winning reelection, had positive perceptions of himself and his presidency until the Iraq war drained his reservoir of goodwill from the electorate. Conversely I think Clinton's solid campaign style, complete with her somewhat extreme personality makeover, will warm enough of her mild critics to prevent her losing on the basis of negative views about her.
Chris Mathews has been even more unstable than usual on Hardball, suggesting today - I think - that he's predicting Hilary will lose to Giuliani due to the negativity with which many perceive her, especially men.
Chris Mathews has been even more unstable than usual on Hardball, suggesting today - I think - that he's predicting Hilary will lose to Giuliani due to the negativity with which many perceive her, especially men.
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Brownback is out
Republican candidate Sam Brownback has dropped out of the Republican primary. Poor polling numbers and relatively low fundraising has claimed him as a victim - there will be more primary casualties in both parties very soon.
Monday, October 15, 2007
Hilary Clinton on "The View"
Hilary Clinton's speaking with the hosts of the popular daytime women's show "The View". One has to be impressed with how her speaking style has improved to the point of appearing very comfortable, even charming in this very informal, "goofy" format of a TV show that hardly is known for challenging people intellectually.
In fact it's usually hard not to wince at some of the dialog on "The View" that, frankly, rarely does credit to the many brave women worked so hard in the 60's and 70's to bring full rights to American women. But forget all that. They are asking some easy but good questions about torture, Iran, and China. Even veteran interviewer Barbara Walters appears uncomfortable - they all seem to feel uneasy in this unusual role of having the responsibility to ask good, tough, questions of a very smart guest.
This is a very popular show and clearly this is the pulse of how a key constituency will vote. If Clinton can manage to maintain this level of thoughfulness, composure, and strength she'll have no trouble winning the primary. She even seems to be charming the View's token conservative mainstay Elizabeth Hasslebeck, conspicuously seated to the far right of Clinton and almost out of earshot.
In fact it's usually hard not to wince at some of the dialog on "The View" that, frankly, rarely does credit to the many brave women worked so hard in the 60's and 70's to bring full rights to American women. But forget all that. They are asking some easy but good questions about torture, Iran, and China. Even veteran interviewer Barbara Walters appears uncomfortable - they all seem to feel uneasy in this unusual role of having the responsibility to ask good, tough, questions of a very smart guest.
This is a very popular show and clearly this is the pulse of how a key constituency will vote. If Clinton can manage to maintain this level of thoughfulness, composure, and strength she'll have no trouble winning the primary. She even seems to be charming the View's token conservative mainstay Elizabeth Hasslebeck, conspicuously seated to the far right of Clinton and almost out of earshot.
Saturday, October 13, 2007
New York Times Transcript Analyzer
Wow! Wanna know who spoke the most words in the Democratic debate? ( I assume the Rebublican debate will have this online soon as well). Check out the NYT transcript analysis tool which looks at each candidate, what they said, and counts the words and times. Amazing.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/09/27/us/politics/20070927_DEBATE_GRAPHIC.html#video
Hilary had the most words in the last 9.27 debate...
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/09/27/us/politics/20070927_DEBATE_GRAPHIC.html#video
Hilary had the most words in the last 9.27 debate...
Friday, October 12, 2007
Al Gore's Nobel is NOT a ticket to a Presidential candidacy.
FOX news must (as usual!) have some odd conservative agenda because they keep bringing up the very unlikely prospect of Al Gore running for the democratic nomination. He won't unless Clinton's campaign melts down, and that appears very unlikely
Of course Gore would like to be president, especially after our bungled 2000 election where he was supposed to *be* the President. This is not at all a partisan statement by me. In fact contrary to what many think the outcome would have been the same (ie a Bush win) even if the Supreme Court had ordered a recount. The Miami Herald had an accounting firm conducte an unbiased complete review of all the ballots and Bush was the winner in that case using the normal 2 chad standard and most other chad based counting standards. So the Supreme court ruling did NOT swing the election. HOWEVER what did swing it was the butterfly ballot fiasco - the product of a Democratic elections official's design folly - that led to huge ballot spoilage which in turn was an overwhelming and key factor in the Bush victory. People wound up accidentally thinking they were voting for Buchanon *and* Gore when they almost certainly would have voted for Gore only if the ballots had been less confusing.
So, the most significant job in the most significant country at one of the most significant times in history went to the loser. Not because of any clever Karl Rove or GWB shenanigans, but simply because our ballot system ... stinks.
So, will Al Gore's Oscar and Peace Prize fuel a candidacy? Nope, but congratulations to him on actually getting to keep the prize.
Of course Gore would like to be president, especially after our bungled 2000 election where he was supposed to *be* the President. This is not at all a partisan statement by me. In fact contrary to what many think the outcome would have been the same (ie a Bush win) even if the Supreme Court had ordered a recount. The Miami Herald had an accounting firm conducte an unbiased complete review of all the ballots and Bush was the winner in that case using the normal 2 chad standard and most other chad based counting standards. So the Supreme court ruling did NOT swing the election. HOWEVER what did swing it was the butterfly ballot fiasco - the product of a Democratic elections official's design folly - that led to huge ballot spoilage which in turn was an overwhelming and key factor in the Bush victory. People wound up accidentally thinking they were voting for Buchanon *and* Gore when they almost certainly would have voted for Gore only if the ballots had been less confusing.
So, the most significant job in the most significant country at one of the most significant times in history went to the loser. Not because of any clever Karl Rove or GWB shenanigans, but simply because our ballot system ... stinks.
So, will Al Gore's Oscar and Peace Prize fuel a candidacy? Nope, but congratulations to him on actually getting to keep the prize.
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Republican Presidential Debate - Thompson loses big by not winning.
Is it just me or do the Republicans seem to be simply assuming they have little or no shot in 2008 against Hilary Clinton? Last night's Republican debate was ably hosted by Chris Mathews and Maria Bartiromo, but even the contrived little exchanges between Romney, Giuliani, and Thompson about taxes and acting lacked the enthusiasm and "bite" you'd expect when the stakes are as high as they can be. Romney appeared presidential and that's what really counts. Pundits are looking too deeply at the answers and not enough at the simple gestures. Giuliani has a very long and conservative row to hoe to beat Romney who will gain momentum after what is looking like a big Iowa Victory.
President Picker Verdict: Romney wins Iowa big and will likely win New Hampshire as well. Romney v. Giuliani for the prize.
In fact it's clear to me already that Thompson will probably be out of this race soon - probably after what I predict will be a second to Romney result in Iowa and then a bad showing in New Hampshire and then lackluster showings in the South. Thompson had to come out like a lion and captivate the tried and true Republicans and he has failed to do that. In fact he's not really that captivating at all as a speaker, and loses soundly to Romney in the "Presidential Profile" department.
President Picker Verdict: Thompson gone in 4 months.
John McCain also seems to have lost any steam he had early on. Frankly I think he's just tired of all the BS. His candidacy in 2000 was a huge breath of fresh air and inspired many to rethink politics. But the GW juggernaut put an end to all that and McCain has been a poor mainstream player.
President Picker Verdict: McCain gone in 3 months.
It would seem that so far in the election it's the Democrats leading with livelier discussions and candidates who - at least superficially - appear to have long term visions for the country.
Ironically (or maybe inevitably) we see that discussions of both the leading Democrats and Republicans are steeped in intellectual mediocrity while many provocative and interesting ideas are coming from the fringe candidates like Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich. Like them or not, the founders would have wanted the spirited debaters to thrive in these contests, challenging our American experiment to do what it does best - change in steady and positive ways.
President Picker Verdict: Romney wins Iowa big and will likely win New Hampshire as well. Romney v. Giuliani for the prize.
In fact it's clear to me already that Thompson will probably be out of this race soon - probably after what I predict will be a second to Romney result in Iowa and then a bad showing in New Hampshire and then lackluster showings in the South. Thompson had to come out like a lion and captivate the tried and true Republicans and he has failed to do that. In fact he's not really that captivating at all as a speaker, and loses soundly to Romney in the "Presidential Profile" department.
President Picker Verdict: Thompson gone in 4 months.
John McCain also seems to have lost any steam he had early on. Frankly I think he's just tired of all the BS. His candidacy in 2000 was a huge breath of fresh air and inspired many to rethink politics. But the GW juggernaut put an end to all that and McCain has been a poor mainstream player.
President Picker Verdict: McCain gone in 3 months.
It would seem that so far in the election it's the Democrats leading with livelier discussions and candidates who - at least superficially - appear to have long term visions for the country.
Ironically (or maybe inevitably) we see that discussions of both the leading Democrats and Republicans are steeped in intellectual mediocrity while many provocative and interesting ideas are coming from the fringe candidates like Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich. Like them or not, the founders would have wanted the spirited debaters to thrive in these contests, challenging our American experiment to do what it does best - change in steady and positive ways.
Tuesday, October 09, 2007
Republican Debate
Tonight, but not live, from that hotbed of the dead and dying part American industrial capitalism - Michigan - comes the Republican Presidential debate starring.....Fred Thompson who makes his first appearance "against" the others Republicans in the race for US President.
The debate is now over but we won't see it until later tonight on MSNBC.
Based on the early Buzz from New York Times and MSNBC (which is commenting on the darn thing and showing clips without running it until tonight!), Fred Thompson is the big loser here, having failed to show equality with the other front runners.
President Picker predicts that Giuliani and Romney will pull close in national polls after the Iowa Primaries which Romney will win.
The debate is now over but we won't see it until later tonight on MSNBC.
Based on the early Buzz from New York Times and MSNBC (which is commenting on the darn thing and showing clips without running it until tonight!), Fred Thompson is the big loser here, having failed to show equality with the other front runners.
President Picker predicts that Giuliani and Romney will pull close in national polls after the Iowa Primaries which Romney will win.
Sunday, September 30, 2007
3rd Quarter Money Results expected soon
Money is the mother's milk of politics, and the 3rd quarter is historically a hard time to raise funds. So observers will be watching the upcoming money results carefully.
Richardson's reported about 5 million in third quarter 2007 and other Democrats and Republicans will be reporting soon.
It's now clear to President Picker that, barring an enormous scandal, Hilary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee in 2008. The Republican race is still up for grabs - President Picker sees Giuliani or Romney as the most likely winners.
CNN political ticker
Richardson's reported about 5 million in third quarter 2007 and other Democrats and Republicans will be reporting soon.
It's now clear to President Picker that, barring an enormous scandal, Hilary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee in 2008. The Republican race is still up for grabs - President Picker sees Giuliani or Romney as the most likely winners.
CNN political ticker
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Democratic Debate - Russert wins!
Democratic Debate - Russert wins!
September 27th, 2007 by JoeDuck
Tim Russert’s questions in the Democratic debate tonight have been simply excellent, trying to get the candidates to make strong statements about various important aspects of American’s future,
The question of the night was to Gravell when Russert asked him about his business bankruptcy history and whether he could run the country better. Gravell, flustered, bragged that he’d basically only hurt the credit card companies. Gravell had no chance but I’d say this single question effectively killed his credibility.
Clinton, the clear leader, has been artfully dodging several of the complex questions. This is a good strategy for the leader to avoid creating “hit points” for other candidates to point to as the campaign heats up.
But with respect to “heating up” it looks like it ain’t gonna happen with the Dems. I think Edwards is close, and Obama is already running for Vice President with a Clinton candidacy.
September 27th, 2007 by JoeDuck
Tim Russert’s questions in the Democratic debate tonight have been simply excellent, trying to get the candidates to make strong statements about various important aspects of American’s future,
The question of the night was to Gravell when Russert asked him about his business bankruptcy history and whether he could run the country better. Gravell, flustered, bragged that he’d basically only hurt the credit card companies. Gravell had no chance but I’d say this single question effectively killed his credibility.
Clinton, the clear leader, has been artfully dodging several of the complex questions. This is a good strategy for the leader to avoid creating “hit points” for other candidates to point to as the campaign heats up.
But with respect to “heating up” it looks like it ain’t gonna happen with the Dems. I think Edwards is close, and Obama is already running for Vice President with a Clinton candidacy.
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