Democratic Convention Day One

As Michelle Obama prepares to address the Democratic National Convention in Denver the pundits are talking about the tone of the convention which so far has been very much a sort of cozy, feel good affair rather than a presentation of the talking points most strategists think the Democrats must hammer home to win the election - points such as economic challenges and the Iraq war.

However it appears to me the strategy is solid, and is to present Obama as a friendly and unifying force rather than a combative one. Appealing to people's desire for change is complicated because many of our natural tendencies
are to keep comfortable with the status quo and view agents of change with great skepticism. This is a natural and functional response and playing off this tendency will form much of the McCain strategy moving forward. Already Fox news and other conservative spokespeople are trying to paint Obama as an unknown force of change - almost as a foreigner rather than a dedicated pubic servant.

Thus I think the counter strategy by the Democrats is to make people feel comfortable with Obama. Look for an almost constant dialog promoting this agenda - Obama as a composed, friendly, stable fellow American who will make the changes many Americans feel are needed in the country.

Michelle Obama's delivery is brilliant so far - she's polished and confident, yet speaking almost conversationally with the very enthusiastic Denver crowd. Her mother and brother's introduction was touching and it is not hard to believe Michelle Obama is herself an exceptional example of the American dream.

John King at CNN is very correctly noting that the idea is to make a connection for people who otherwise see little in common with Obama.

David Gergen "She rescued the evening for the Democrats"

Obama VP is Joe Biden

In a pick that hasn't generated all that much buzz or press, Barack Obama has picked Delaware Senator Joe Biden as his Presidential running mate. The choice seemed to fly in the face of some conventional wisdom about running mates in that Obama and Biden share a lot of ideology and Biden is unlikely to attract many more southern or moderate voters to the Obama camp.

Near the eve of the Democratic Convention we find Obama and McCain equal in most polls, perhaps in large part because, as CNN polling director Holland has noted:

"The number of Clinton Democrats who say they would vote for McCain has gone up 11 points since June, enough to account for most, although not all, of the support McCain has gained in that time," Holland said.

Obama VP Choice Made - Wed Announcement Probable

Barack Obama is reported to have selected his vice presidential partner during his vacation time in Hawaii, and the announcement is expected to be made by email and probably also twitter and facebook alerts to Obama supporters/subscribers on Wednesday early in the morning.

Kaine, Bayh, and Biden were normally suggested as Obama's top picks, but others are possible as well.

McCain accidentally names his VP at Saddleback?

John McCain, asked by Rick Warren to cite the three wisest people he knows, quickly named General David Petraeus but then seemed stumped. He named John Lewis - a liberal congressman with whom McCain has less in common than most in politics, and then Meg Whitman, EBAY CEO who is in a key player in the McCain campaign . Given that he's been thinking every day about his VP nominee I'm wondering if he sort of panicked and let slip her name. Whitman is a superb strategic choice for VP given that she'd peel away some of Obama's support from middle aged and older women who have been very frustrated to see Hilary Clinton's failure, and Whitman would reinforce McCain's pro business "economically sophisticated" appeal to moderates.

Saddleback Forum

Barack Obama is taking questions at the Saddleback forum from moderate evangelical Pastor Rick Warren. Warren may emerge as a significant player in the election as his moderate philosophy is appealing to many, and the evangelical vote represents a key electoral block. McCain tends to hold most of that vote and will for the election, but if Warren speaks equally about the qualifications of each candidate it'll be a boon to the Obama campaign, possibly justifying for some evangelicals a vote outside of their normal frame of reference. Alternatively if Warren comes out strongly for McCain we could see a new groundswell of the support McCain has lacked so far - the kind of passionate conservative power block that helped GW Bush in both his presidential campaign victories.

John Edwards stealing the show

As the conventions approach - events that will more clearly than anything shape the coming battle in November for the presidency - it is the John Edwards sex and alleged payola scandal that has grabbed most of the headlines.

Rather than signalling a willingness to undermine the Democratic primary process, I'd suggest that Edwards, having failed to capture a significant shot at winning, tired of the process, leading him to succomb to the moral lapses that are now making headlines.

More significant than the affair - at least in terms of legality and credibility - are what appear to be hush payments. Although I doubt Edwards was involved in these you can make a case he bears more responsibility here than he appears willing to take on.

This episode may be good news for Obama, who has the lead and more than anything simply needs to just keep on keeping on. McCain, on the other hand, needs to either grab the spotlight or shine it on Obama problems. Edwards is keeping that from happening, and thus may have an interesting impact on our attention deficit political process.

Aloha Mr. Kaine?

With Obama sitting in Hawaii deciding on a VP, and Tim Kaine standing to tip the hat in the closest of the "close states", it's looking good for Kaine as the new Obama VP.

The latest "close state" polls at RealClearPolitics.com show a dead heat (as in a real tie, not the silly "statistical tie" the media often refers to in very misleading fashion when results lie within error bounds):

Colorado	47.3	45.7	Obama +1.6
Virginia	46.7	46.7	Tie
Missouri	45.0	47.3	McCain +2.3
Michigan	46.0	42.8	Obama +3.2
Ohio	46.0	45.5	Obama +0.5
Florida	45.8	47.0	McCain +1.2

Obama's looking pretty strong in this comparison, though it's important to note that flipping a few of the current electoral state results by a few percentages quickly gives the election to McCain. Our crazy Electoral college system, as we (failed to learn) from the 2000 Florida fiasco, puts an enormous amount of value on states that are close. This distorts the campaigns, forcing them to focus attention on swing voters in swing states a lot more than the rest of the population.

The founders intent was to balance things out, but it is unlikely they'd approve of the current situation because state's autonomy is of far less importance in the modern context than it was in the founding days of the USA.

US History

Scratch Edwards out of Veepstakes

Today John Edwards admitted his affair with a filmmaker who (later?) worked for his campaign making commercials.

Edwards' wife Elizabeth's cancer was a significant issue in the campaign and this indiscretion is magnified by the fact that many who admired the courageousness of her campaigning in the midst of a cancer battle will be particularly upset by Edwards' infidelity. Of course campaigns, sex, lies, and videotape are all intertwined in complex ways in American politics so it is possible this matter was already known to Elizabeth, as Bill Clinton's many dalliances were well known to Hillary even as she helped him imply there was little or no foundation to the rumors.

This unsavory story certainly destroys any chance Edwards has of becoming Obama's VP.
Fair or not, stories like this are political suicide.

What's wrong with Rasmussen?

While most polls show Obama with a lead over McCain, Rasmussen Reports has for some time suggested that McCain is leading in several key states as well as I think overall leading nationally.

Although it's possible Rasmussen is on to something other pollsters are missing, common sense suggests that his results - out of the statistical probability ranges for the other polls - are the result of a polling error.

I want to see their methodology but I'm wondering if the cell phone factor is an issue. Young voters are more likely to support Obama but also *far* less likely to be polled by traditional means, which often exclude cell phone calls. I'm assuming some polls are trying to factor in this complex cell phone variable but assume that factor may create a lot of variability.

Veepstakes at Hardball

Hardball arguably offers the most intense political analysis, and they are sizing up the VP competition as following:

McCain's top 3 in what Harball says is the increasing order of likelihood of winning:

3. Former Rep. Bob Portman
2. Governor of Minnesota Tim Pawlenty
1. Mitt Romney, Former Governor of Massachusetts.

Although Romney is a good pick for McCain, I think they missed the boat here. Another smart choice is Kay Baily Hutchinson to peel away the Hillary Supporters still reeling from the Obama defeat. As a woman she'd pull more total votes than other VPs, though I'm not clear if that support would come from the necessary states. Still, enough states will be close that the best VP strategy is a powerful *national* support getter.

For Barack Obama:

3. Senator Evan Bayh
2. Tim Kane, VA Governor
1. Joe Biden, Senator from Delaware

I think two senators are weak on a ticket, so it'll be Tim Kane in this group but I think more likely is Wesley Clark, a smart and sharp campaigner who could put to rest any military challenges to the ticket.

McCain is a Luddite?

I'm not sure if this New York Times characterization of McCain is fair, but certainly Obama has the upper hand in terms of online sophistication.

Ironically it's the McCain campaign that could do wonders with better online activity, since most younger folks are Obama supporters already. ie McCain might peel away support from Obama - something he'll have to do to win in November - by bringing the fight online where views are cheap and support can be fickle.

The Ludacris File: Ludicrous

The punditry is bending over backwards to connect BS and irrelevance to both candidates.

Today the stupid awards goes out for suggesting rapper Ludacris latest hip hop commercialized rant tune tells us anything important about Obama (it does not). On the McCain side of the pundit follies we have the normally very insightful Rachel Maddow on MSNBC suggesting that the McCain campaign's claims that Obama is presumptuously asserting himself is pandering to racism (they are not - Obama is somewhat presumptuous, you silly Rachel!). Obama's been the huge beneficiary of a combination of McCain's non-attack strategy and our cultural oversensitivity to any ads that could have racial overtones).

Swiftboating will be coming on in full force very soon, but it will leave any racial references to the imagination or it will fail as Obama is likely poised to quickly and effectively brush aside such issues as racial nonsense, immediately ceding the high ground to Obama.

This is natural in the 24/7 news cycle when people will simply change the channel if Rachel Maddow and Pat Buchanon start waxing philosophically about the merits of prudent fiscal management rather than arguing over silliness.

Now, McCain also deserves a stupid award for the new TV ad showing how popular Obama has become and asking "is he ready to be President?" Excuse me, but pointing out how your opponent is more popular than you are is NOT a good approach to winning.

Obama BBQ With Kaine?

Newsweek is practically suggesting that Virginia Governor Tim Kaine will be Obama's VP pick, perhaps as early as tomorrow. I remain very skeptical that the politically inexperienced Obama will pick a politically inexperienced Kaine rather than a liberal with stronger military credentials.

However, if Kaine's at the BBQ tomorrow maybe Obama will be cooking up more than just some ribs and chicken.

48 to 40 or 45 to 49? What's up with the polls?

Gallup was out today with a 48 to 40% vote margin between Obama and McCain via tracking poll AND a 49 to 45% McCain advantage via a regular poll.

Despite what appear to be close poll numbers, and although the election season is only moderately underway, and although the electoral college craziness could rear its ugly head and deliver bizarre results, it really appears that McCain has a very long row to hoe in terms of planting and nurturing support for his campaign. On the upside for McCain is the fact the race remains fairly close despite the media infatuation with Obama and Obama's superior resource base.

Today one report said McCain was greeted by only a *single* reporter at a campaign stop in New Hampshire while Obama seems to be a key topic of liberal and conservative journalism alike.

Vice Presidential running mates remain the key pre-election issue and decision for both McCain and Obama. McCain appears to be leaning towards Mitt Romney although I would not count out Huckabee as somebody who would galvanize American conservatives into voting for McCain, candidate that seems to have failed to inpisire much enthusiasm in that core Republican constituency.

My hunch is that Obama's choice is likely to come *after* McCain, who, currently in Obama's media shadow, would likely grab more media buzz by choosing first. If Obama goes first he'll lose the ability to counter McCain's choice with a strategic decision and also McCain will then be able to better control the VP buzz with his own strategic decision. ie I see it as in McCain's advantage to go first, Obama second and therefore predict that's how this will shake out.

Or....you could just flip a coin.

Predictions? Pundits don't make them because they are chicken sh**z, but here at President Picker we don't fear error at all:

McCain & Romney
Obama & Wesley Clark

Obama lead seems to be narrowing

CNN Reports that an average of five national polls puts Obama ahead of McCain by 6 percent in the national presidential election. Obama enjoyed a larger lead weeks ago, and it may be that the shine of the new and exciting candidate has worn a bit. Strategically look for McCain to criticize Obama's foreign policy experience, and Obama to focus more on the economy and tying McCain to President Bush and the current huge challenges facing the American economy.

Elections often boil down to economic considerations and this gives Obama a huge advantage as things are not getting better and are very unlikely to improve by November. Voters who like McCain may still reject him on the basis that they want "change" in the economy and are willing to take a chance with Obama.

Of course the reality is that presidents are not the primary economic drivers by any means, and neither Obama nor McCain is likely to fix our economic troubles anytime soon.

New Yorker's Obama Fist Bump Cover

Excuse me but what in the world ... ?

I suppose the uber-sophisticated New Yorker deserves some latitude in parody, but this seems to be designed more as an offensive sort of predatory swipe than a funny satire. But I'll have to read the article, and also I'll be interested in how McCain is treated by the same cartoonist, assuming he's still got a job after the Obama cover mini-firestorm.

48% to 40% with 117 days to go

Barack Obama maintains a very strong lead in the US Presidential race as we close in on the final stretch after what seems like an eternity of campaigning. In fact I think "campaign fatigue" is working in Obama's favor both because he's the guy going into the final few months with the big mo as well as the guy with stamina that will certainly last through the end of this election. Although yesterday's Iran comments by both candidates were weak, McCain stumbled so badly one almost had to wonder if he was suffering from some sort of mental lapse during the interview.

The latest polls appear to show the huge McCain Obama gap closing, but it's not clear to me how significant this is, or even how significant the polls are at this stage. Look for undecided voters in the tossup states to be the critical factor in this election. Obama cannot lose California or New York, and McCain cannot lose several states in the South. It is the voters in Florida, Ohio, Michigan, and other close states that will push somebody over the top, and it will not necessarily be the candidate with the most votes. In fact I'd argue Obama is very likely to win the national popular vote by at least a million, but this will not necessarily translate into the electoral votes needed to win. In fact the electoral college was in part designed to equalize smaller states and larger ones and the smaller states are more conservative, so McCain will likely benefit from more folly in what has become the questionable legacy of our seriously flawed electoral college system.

Fliip Flopping or Wisdom?

While the vacuous TV news pundits discuss whether Jesse Jackson likes Obama or not and something about McCain and a viagra comment, the candidates struggle to discuss real issues such as Iran and Iraq. The middle east can't seem to leave the American stage regardless of who is in power, and the next president is certain to inherit the complexity of that situation.

Kudos to McCain and Obama for working towards stability in the middle east. Although there is some political hay made of what is a likely change in Obama's tone on Iraq, it it to his credit that he's reassessing the situation in light of the new circumstances.

Cindy McCain and International Aid

Kudos to Cindy McCain for her excellent relief work over many decades. McCain will travel soon to Rwanda to help bring assistance to a country ravaged by civil war, genocide, and poverty.

Cindy McCain has a long and distinguished history of bringing her influence and money to trouble spots around the globe, and even the most partisan among us owes this kind of effort some admiration and thanks.

CNN Sure Likes Obama

In the midst of the powerful conservative bias of FOX News CNN generally stands out as a much more reasoned point of view, but I'd have to say their profiles of the Obamas and the McCains sure seemed to favor Obama. Although it is reasonable to suggest both Cindy and John McCain's past is more controversial in many respects than Barack or Michelle Obama's past, the profile highlights seemed to focus almost exclusively on the McCain's defects and the Obama's virtues.

One can't help but suspect that the hip CNN crowd strongly favors a presidential win by Obama, who even detractors would agree is a lot cooler than McCain. The fact that this opinion seeped so powerfully into the profiles is cause for concern, though CNN would have to do a lot more than this to even hint at the kind of bias we see daily on FOX news, which is so heavily spun to the right it's often hard to extract the real news from the spin.